CFO Confirms 15K R1T / R1S to be Produced in 2022

[Atlrivian]

I know we all suspected, but CFO officially confirmed in a Bloomberg article only 15k R1T/Ss getting built this year and 10k Amazon trucks.

Relevant passage:
"Rivian plans to deliver 10,000 vans to the e-commerce giant this year, McDonough confirmed, while building 25,000 vehicles overall."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...maps-rivian-s-path-to-regain-wall-street-halo

I was most recently given 2 first half 2023 delivery dates (8/20 R1T Max and 3/21 R1S Explore). When will I get my updated delivery estimate of 2024 ?. Good thing I don't neeeeeed a new car yet.

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[Rivian_Hugh_III]

Very soon we should be getting an updated Configurator. It'll have original pricing for us pre-Mar1st folks. It'll also have an estimated delivery date. Perhaps it'll also have an accurate Limestone and accurate shiny black AT 20's. When this happens we'll be able to lament our delayveries.

 

[SoCal Rob]

When this happens we'll be able to lament our delayveries.

Nicely done with, “delayveries!”

 

[COdogman]

It’s disappointing, but seems like a realistic goal given they only produced 1200 last year and the supply chain issues are not getting better anytime soon. And if they do happen to churn out more than that everyone will be impressed.

 

[IlliniRivian]

Not surprising confirmation but definitely disappointing. I wonder if they get all T and S LEs out in 2022.

 

[SANZC02]

I guess the real question is did the November/December delivery windows already take that into account?

I think they did to some extent. We will know more shortly if we see more of these delivery windows being fulfilled and we see R1S vehicles rolling off the line.

Assuming they made 2500 vehicles in the first quarter, to make that 15k number they need to average around 1400 a month the rest of the year so we should see a steady stream of deliveries the rest of this year.

On a side note, I drove by the Costa Mesa service center again today and it still looked like more than 50 vehicles so they seem to be getting deliveries backfilling the ones they deliver to customers.

 

[Craigins]

I'm confused, this is good news.

Before this, we knew they could produce at max, 15k R1 vehicles. RJ said 25k, nobody said they had to stop at 10k RCVs.

 

[EVTrucking]

Speculation was 15k R1s but now it has been confirmed.

I don’t see how they could have known what they knew by the time they reported on 3/10/2022, so there have to be delays for R1s 15,001 and beyond. Parts supply is dynamic, what’s available today may not be available tomorrow.

I am in the Jul-Sep 2022 window and I expect a delay. CS assures me I am on track but that is exactly what CS has to say until our configuration is rolled back with new delivery window estimates.

If you are in the 15k then it is probable you will get your R1 this year!

 

[Mister Person]

My S reservation is in the 45,000 range (Sept 2021) and I have a 1H23 delivery estimate. That now sounds like a fantasy. Maybe late ‘23 if I’m lucky.

 

[runwithscissors]

Speculation was 15k R1s but now it has been confirmed.

I don’t see how they could have known what they knew by the time they reported on 3/10/2022, so there have to be delays for R1s 15,001 and beyond. Parts supply is dynamic, what’s available today may not be available tomorrow.

I am in the Jul-Sep 2022 window and I expect a delay. CS assures me I am on track but that is exactly what CS has to say until our configuration is rolled back with new delivery window estimates.

If you are in the 15k then it is probable you will get your R1 this year!

When did you pre-order? I pre-ordered 2/21 and they said 10-12/22 but I know that's not happening. No idea what my number is but it's not in the first 15k unfortunately.

 

[RivianNowPlz]

My S reservation is in the 45,000 range (Sept 2021) and I have a 1H23 delivery estimate. That now sounds like a fantasy. Maybe late ‘23 if I’m lucky.

I don’t think it's fantasy for you. Rivian even at the prior price point was never going to convert 100% of preorders to deliveries. A very conservative estimate which may be generous is 30% cancel. With the badwill with price increase + the Lightning/Hummer/Silverado/Ram EVs on the true horizon I think the real number of conversions will be lower than 70% but using that number would place you somewhere around 30,000. Now feel free to adjust in your mind the max pack, Explore, and other late delivery options and its not too unreasonable to expect 1st half of 2023 at all.

 

[AllInev]

I know we all suspected, but CFO officially confirmed in a Bloomberg article only 15k R1T/Ss getting built this year and 10k Amazon trucks.

Well that sucks.

 

[nc10]

Relevant passage:
"Rivian plans to deliver 10,000 vans to the e-commerce giant this year, McDonough confirmed, while building 25,000 vehicles overall."

I really wish the article had dug into this a little more, and that there was at least some mention of what Rivian is doing to try to improve this, at least give the appearance of going all out to meet some of the current demand, in addition to talking about charging stations, new factories, etc.

 

[nc10]

Rivian even at the prior price point was never going to convert 100% of preorders to deliveries. A very conservative estimate which may be generous is 30% cancel. With the badwill with price increase + the Lightning/Hummer/Silverado/Ram EVs on the true horizon I think the real number of conversions will be lower than 70% but using that number would place you somewhere around 30,000.

The unconstrained demand for all these vehicles can't and won't be met for the foreseeable future. Through 2024, maybe longer? Every battery and battery material forecast I've seen shows supply not meeting or even approaching demand. A couple years ago I would have agreed, there would be cancellations. Today, at the pre Mar 1 price point, if Rivian can meet or be close to the delivery indications they've provided in December and January, I'd predict not many cancellations. So maybe not "never".

 

[Gator42]

This is very bad and not just from the enthusiast perspective. I drive by the local dealership row and there’s no new vehicles. It’s a scattering of used cars at Ford, Lexus, Jaguar/Land Rover. Porsche has a few new 911s. That’s it. Still the fleet ages, wears down and needs replacement…

JLR says they get about 5 new ones a week. They’re matching to a customer wait list when they come in. Any new inventory is spoken for until late June.

…very bad. Try to keep your Havana honey in tip top shape!

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