Update on R2 order invitation timing now in account

[who764]

I was Nov-Dec 2026, just received an update that I am now Sept-Oct.

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[Jeremy3292]

Seems like LE isn't selling out as much with everyone moving up, unless there's about to be a big influx of orders in the next 2 weeks with the coastal cloud interior release. Also some weird emails lately that made it sound like LE is going away soon anyways...

 

[tivoboy]

Seems like LE isn't selling out as much with everyone moving up, unless there's about to be a big influx of orders in the next 2 weeks with the coastal cloud interior release. Also some weird emails lately that made it sound like LE is going away soon anyways...

Before we draw any conclusions from these fortuitous slight move ups and order emails, I think it’s important to consider that Rivian R2 is now most likely running their SHIFT B (2nd shift) and or they have gotten comfortable with the current quality coming out the back end and feel able to increase speed through LINE 1, and add volume to SHIFT B.

COULD be lessened demand, but the initial timelines were probably meant to be conservative and based on LINE 1, SHIFT A only and conservative production volume ramping. And now they probably have more speed or capacity (SHIFT B,) that they can bring into the production Volume.

COULD be reduced demand due to reviews about car, alternatives, additional models becoming available at an early point, EV credit not being available till next year in CA at least, MACRO economic factors, the list goes on.

I wouldn’t just leap to LE not having as much demand, as they had pretty solid projections of what that demand was back in June when they queried the audience, and they have at least SAID that their internal projections for uptake (we don’t know what the meant exactly by this) was greater than their initial modeling.

 

[DJFrerichs]

Before we draw any conclusions from these fortuitous slight move ups and order emails, I think it’s important to consider that Rivian R2 is now most likely running their SHIFT B (2nd shift) and or they have gotten comfortable with the current quality coming out the back end and feel able to increase speed through LINE 1, and add volume to SHIFT B.

COULD be lessened demand, but the initial timelines were probably meant to be conservative and based on LINE 1, SHIFT A only and conservative production volume ramping. And now they probably have more speed or capacity (SHIFT B,) that they can bring into the production Volume.

COULD be reduced demand due to reviews about car, alternatives, additional models becoming available at an early point, EV credit not being available till next year in CA at least, MACRO economic factors, the list goes on.

I wouldn’t just leap to LE not having as much demand, as they had pretty solid projections of what that demand was back in June when they queried the audience, and they have at least SAID that their internal projections for uptake (we don’t know what the meant exactly by this) was greater than their initial modeling.

2nd shift is not starting until Sept 30th per local news reports. I believe their tier 1 & tier 2 suppliers are finally getting fully ramped to keep up with the line. They are only as fast as their slowest supplier. Keep in mind this is also a build line that is making tweaks/improvements on the fly to improve output and build quality. All of this equates to more cars per hour with less issues to have to resolve or stop the line for. It was reported by RJ that the take rate has been higher than initially estimated.

 

[tivoboy]

2nd shift is not starting until Sept 30th per local news reports. I believe their tier 1 & tier 2 suppliers are finally getting fully ramped to keep up with the line. They are only as fast as their slowest supplier. Keep in mind this is also a build line that is making tweaks/improvements on the fly to improve output and build quality. All of this equates to more cars per hour with less issues to have to resolve or stop the line for. It was reported by RJ that the take rate has been higher than initially estimated.

All true.
My point about uptake (take rate, bad ESL!) is that we don’t really know what they meant by it?
Was it initial reservations that converted to “interest” in order per the initial opening days?
Or is it the PURCHASE rate compared to the FIFO reservation rate, or more likely the PURCHASE conversion rate to the initial “INTEREST” rate when those questions were asked in early JUNE.

Still not sure.

 

[RomanMF]

IT'S TIME!

 

[DJFrerichs]

All true.
My point about uptake (take rate, bad ESL!) is that we don’t really know what they meant by it?
Was it initial reservations that converted to “interest” in order per the initial opening days?
Or is it the PURCHASE rate compared to the FIFO reservation rate, or more likely the PURCHASE conversion rate to the initial “INTEREST” rate when those questions were asked in early JUNE.

Still not sure.

From my understandings is that it was percentage of reservations that turned into actual orders/sales/purchases. I believe the national average is like 17% take rate...would have not doubt the take rate is close to 35-40% given the high interest.

 

[Jeff_in_SF]

That makes (at least) 4 of us with day 1, aug-sept, CA reservations getting invites today.

Add one more to that list from CA. Apr 2024 rez, I was Sept/Oct but just got the invite.

I have an iX3 being built Aug 24 though. I could still cancel that (plenty of demand for it so dealers don't care), but I'd kinda made up my mind with the Oct invite date Rivian gave me that the R2 would come so late this year that I would just wait for the new chip. So am pretty set on iX3 this year, and I can add R2 next year maybe when lease rates come down.

Now do I stick with my common sense or order now - this was so simple a few hours ago

 

[derekmw]

Funny thing for me - I reserved minutes after it opened, but last year decided it may be good to have 2 reservations so I placed another reservation on 2/18/25. I got the invite for the 2nd one placed last year while my first reservation is saying I will get invited later this year.

It doesn't matter to me which reservation they invite me to use and order. I placed my order end of June and picking up today.

 

[Marjen]

My Sept-Nov did not move

 

[iamnid]

I'll note that while I got the invite today, you still can't order a vehicle equipped with Coastal Cloud interior.

 

[tivoboy]

From my understandings is that it was percentage of reservations that turned into actual orders/sales/purchases. I believe the national average is like 17% take rate...would have not doubt the take rate is close to 35-40% given the high interest.

Historically one would think that’s possible (solid take rates historically for products to convert is 10%, higher with very high demand and often very new vehicles, the CT being a recent abject failure - but that’s for another thread).. but the problem or challenge at least with that logic is, that if we take the unknown but discussed pool of “reservations’ of LEAST at 200K, there can’t possibly have been to date any more than ~ 5-10K MAYBE actual orders opened, placed, confirmed and PURCHASED (but almost certainly NOT delivered, and final purchase doesn’t occur till ACTUAL delivery or close to it).. we just haven’t seen the VIN’s for that, and it’s even lower if we assume some portion ~ 1500-2000 being employees.. maybe they consider them ’customers” that’s fine, but still

And based on production volumes and rate, and even orders being moved up today, they still can’t have closed orders let alone closed purchasing or delivered even 10K.. so the conversion rate of THAT number is <5% (assuming the 200K “Reservations”)

Maybe its just the checked box for “definetly interested” or the early “interested” converted to actual order and delivery..not sure

you see where I’m coming from?

 

[LevelHeaded]

My Sept-Nov did not move

Sounds like the movement has been only CA

 

[gecko10x]

My Sept-Nov did not move

Same window, also no movement.

 

[MaskedRacerX]

I'll note that while I got the invite today, you still can't order a vehicle equipped with Coastal Cloud interior.

Same, and did you get (or notice) the "Request This Build" when you selected Coastal Cloud? Was wondering where/what that does.

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