Ketchum: Wait for LiDAR? - The Rivian R2 LiDAR story isn’t what you think

[Qamera]

I've gone back and forth on waiting for Gen 3 vs. buying a Launch Package

I personally landed on Launch Package for my needs and personal speculations on the future

For my needs, I don't really care about my car being able to drive itself point-to-point everywhere all the time. I love driving. I definitely value anything to make road trips easier though. And the Gen 2 hardware will indeed give an already really good experience.

The only thing that could make it much better for me is true eyes off unsupervised driving, especially for long periods of time on road trips. To allow me to read, do work, text, etc. I.e minimum Level 3 autonomy.

My issue: I just can't see Level 3 autonomy coming anytime in the next 12-24 months even on Gen 3. Maybe I'll look back on this post soon and laugh at myself. But there are so many hurdles...

1. Obviously, the technology hurdle. Rivian needs to solve the software problem with a legitimately reliable and safe unsupervised experience for consumer vehicles. Nobody has done that unsupervised in the US — not even Tesla. They have a small handful of no-driver cars in Texas.

It's really freaking hard. This^ hurdle alone would be incredible if Rivian actually could deliver anything in the next 1-2 years. Though to Rivian's credit, they have been remarkably good at delivering on their promises relatively on-time for the most part, up to this point.

2. Next, the regulatory hurdles. Rivian will need to apply and get approved to enable Level 3 unsupervised in geographies and situations. This requires approval at a state by state level. Mercedes only does it in a limited number of states, only slow driving on highways. I don't know what the odds are Rivian will get approved anytime soon in Oregon where I live, for meaningful use cases beyond slow driving on highways.

3. Also, insurance hurdles. For Rivian to offer unsupervised Level 3 driving, they take on the liability themselves. Massive insurance costs to do that. For an unprofitable startup, this aint easy.

4. Then there's the brand hurdles. I hate to say it, but at some point as Rivian scales, there will almost certainly be an accident involving a serious personal injury — even on the supervised autonomy suite, not to mention any unsupervised Level 3 systems. When this happens, there can be some high-profile PR and brand risks to Rivian that could cause it to slow roll the expansion of any unsupervised autonomy features.

When I consider all of those^ hurdles to get to an unsupervised Level 3 autonomy experience that would be actually meaningfully valuable, I'm skeptical. I'm guessing there will be more supplementary add-on features before things like taking eyes completely off the road for extended periods of time.

Again I could be totally wrong.

But in the meantime, I'll take $2,500 savings on regular Autonomy+ suite, free Tow Package and earlier delivery with the Launch Package.

Am I weird because my idea of a road trip is driving?

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[srkz]

Am I weird because my idea of a road trip is driving?

Some people really enjoy cooking good food, some people just want to eat it.

 

[SuperFeisty]

Am I weird because my idea of a road trip is driving?

Hey guys, new to the forum, so thank you all for educating me. I'm new to the Rivian family and all EVs, and have my reservation in November for the LE.

Would it be safe to say that Autonomy + without Lidar at the very minimum would allow me to get from point A to B with just eyes watching the road and no hands on the wheel with maybe some very occasional inputs within this next year?

Everyone's discussing about what Gen 3 can do, but I'm more interested in the worst case scenario expectations without Lidar, as I accidentally blew through a stop sign test driving the R2 a few weeks ago haha.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Hey guys, new to the forum, so thank you all for educating me. I'm new to the Rivian family and all EVs, and have my reservation in November for the LE.

Would it be safe to say that Autonomy + without Lidar at the very minimum would allow me to get from point A to B with just eyes watching the road and no hands on the wheel with maybe some very occasional inputs within this next year?

Everyone's discussing about what Gen 3 can do, but I'm more interested in the worst case scenario expectations without Lidar, as I accidentally blew through a stop sign test driving the R2 a few weeks ago haha.

Realistically... At worst, expect a slightly smarter version of adaptive cruise control. At best, expect hands-free with occasional driver take-over. Autonomy+ performance depends on where you drive, the conditions, and the car/software's level of understanding over what it sees. At current state, unrealistic to expect and demand same degree of performance everywhere. If you are looking for references, there are videos on youtube demonstrating Autonomy+ and Rivian's UHF. Full point-to-point is not yet a reality. But is projected to be coming to gen2.

 

[Jeremy3292]

Would it be safe to say that Autonomy + without Lidar at the very minimum would allow me to get from point A to B with just eyes watching the road and no hands on the wheel with maybe some very occasional inputs within this next year?

Yes

 

[rvnxyz001]

Hey guys, new to the forum, so thank you all for educating me. I'm new to the Rivian family and all EVs, and have my reservation in November for the LE.

Would it be safe to say that Autonomy + without Lidar at the very minimum would allow me to get from point A to B with just eyes watching the road and no hands on the wheel with maybe some very occasional inputs within this next year?

Everyone's discussing about what Gen 3 can do, but I'm more interested in the worst case scenario expectations without Lidar, as I accidentally blew through a stop sign test driving the R2 a few weeks ago haha.

Yes, and later Gen3 hardware will bring you to your destination during a foggy night more reliable with less involvement from your side than current hardware.

 

[Tony S]

Am I weird because my idea of a road trip is driving?

I have a Launch Edition reservation, I like driving, have no need or desire to be a passenger in my own car. Free Autonomy+ is VERY compelling to me.
The data training and resulting better situational awareness in Gen3 will also upgrade Autonomy+ in Gen2 over time through OTA.

 

[EVtowing]

Would it be safe to say that Autonomy + without Lidar at the very minimum would allow me to get from point A to B with just eyes watching the road and no hands on the wheel with maybe some very occasional inputs within this next year?

No, if by “safe to say” you mean “very likely”.

Rivian is relatively new to the autonomous driving scene. Yes, what you describe is what they hope to accomplish, but it is hardly a sure thing within that timeframe. And there are additional caveats beyond what you describe, as for example achieving that level of performance in low visibility conditions and while going through construction zones or where emergency vehicles (police, fire, ambulance) are operating.

In my opinion, the current version of Tesla FSD is not capable of reliably performing what you describe at a level significantly safer than the average driver. Tesla does not release the data required for outside parties to independently evaluate the company’s safety claims, and frequently makes misleading comparisons between what it says is FSD’s performance and existing safety data about human drivers.

 

[shandering]

No, if by “safe to say” you mean “very likely”.

Rivian is relatively new to the autonomous driving scene. Yes, what you describe is what they hope to accomplish, but it is hardly a sure thing within that timeframe. And there are additional caveats beyond what you describe, as for example achieving that level of performance in low visibility conditions and while going through construction zones or where emergency vehicles (police, fire, ambulance) are operating.

In my opinion, the current version of Tesla FSD is not capable of reliably performing what you describe at a level significantly safer than the average driver. Tesla does not release the data required for outside parties to independently evaluate the company’s safety claims, and frequently makes misleading comparisons between what it says is FSD’s performance and existing safety data about human drivers.

FSD was approved in europe because the safety was independently verified. FSD v14 legitimately does improve safety with only light supervision

FSD is extremely safe and with only light supervision that is more than enough to help the areas where FSD still struggles.

For example, FSD does not use the bumper camera, so theoretically it could run someone over that was lying in front of the car. Light supervision and choosing when to press the s tart FSD button prevents this one in a million scenario

 

[NCSwa]

The Premium is $4k cheaper but doesn’t have the semi active suspension or the additional power, in addition to the LE package of tow package and free Autonomy plus. LE could be cheaper than a premium model with those extras added.

LE without a doubt is cheaper than a same spec Premium. Not to mention the LE has more HP and better suspension - IMO. It's $1,500.00 more for a Premium if you pick the same paint, wheels, and add Autonomy+ and Tow Package, and you have 200 less HP and no adaptive suspension.

 

[rvnxyz001]

Not to mention the LE has more HP and better suspension - IMO.

We don't know if it's better. Adaptive suspension doesn't always feel better. It can be stiffer even in its softest mode, for example, which some people may not like. It could also be a very cheap system, while a regular suspension might be better and more reliable.

 

[Eric9610]

We don't know if it's better. Adaptive suspension doesn't always feel better. It can be stiffer even in its softest mode, for example, which some people may not like. It could also be a very cheap system, while a regular suspension might be better and more reliable.

Adaptive dampers are always better. It gives the driver the option to set the rate. The soft mode will be how the premium ships as this is the damper fully open. Personally, moderate is the best for all conditions on the R2.

 

[justinkitswa]

I've said it before and still stand by my earlier comments- Rivian is not developing LIDAR for direct sale to the public (us) in the near future.

They're developing it for full autonomous taxi use through Uber. They're planning on rolling out Uber branded Rivian full autonomous vehicles by 2028.

I don't get the strategy folks seem to subscribe to, in which if we just wait a little bit longer we can totally buy a Gen 3 R1x or R2 with LIDAR.

I think Gen 3 hardware will fork - LIDAR systems for Uber partnership vehicles. Non-LIDAR for the rest of us.

The software stack to run full autonomous driving for Uber is going to be nearly 100% unique to that platform, and will not easily plug into a vehicle meant for sale to the general public. I do not believe Rivian can pick-and-choose what sections of software they write to leverage LIDAR data to perform full autonomous driving and graft that into something that looks like Autonomy + they sell to us.

At some point many years down the road, (Gen 4+) things may be different, but given how fundamentally different the R2 software is from R1, I just don't see Rivian writing code in a modular format that would enable LIDAR technology on things we can actually buy any time soon.

 

[rvnxyz001]

Adaptive dampers are always better. It gives the driver the option to set the rate. The soft mode will be how the premium ships as this is the damper fully open. Personally, moderate is the best for all conditions on the R2.

"Adaptive dampers are always better" is too absolute.
They change damping, not spring rate, and "soft" does not simply mean the damper is fully open. It is still a calibrated setting within the limits of that suspension.

A well-tuned passive suspension can ride better than a poorly tuned adaptive one. Ride quality also depends on the springs, tires, bushings, suspension travel, and Rivian's tuning.

Adaptive dampers give you more adjustment, but that does not automatically make them better. And "moderate is best" is personal preference...

 

[macb00kemdanno]

For example, FSD does not use the bumper camera, so theoretically it could run someone over that was lying in front of the car. Light supervision and choosing when to press the s tart FSD button prevents this one in a million scenario

Doubtful... I was on the way home, with FSD driving me through my neighborhood, when it stopped for a squirrel running across the road. A human is much bigger than a squirrel...

And it will actively dodge road debris at highway speeds (shredded tires, branches, whatever).

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