Rivian announces 75 million shares offering

[JRock]

Bottom line: Rivian stock is going to be on sale for a short period. It’s a good time to buy. I initially bought At $27 and I’ve sat on that. When it bottomed out under $10, I bought more.

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[Biturbowned]

Buying shares at the bell, this is good for long term viability imo.

 

[mkg3]

Isn‘t there still another $5B tranche from Volkswagen that is yet to be unlocked, or did they open that up already?

That's the total amount and not another $5B. So far Rivian has received ~$3B of that between the JV and the equity exchange.

Today's action is just devaluing the share price. The company value has not changed but the share count has gone up making the existing shares worth less.

It's never a good thing for the existing shareholders. Sounds like the new shares, at least part of it, will be used as a collateral for the DOE loan for GA plant.

 

[Tim-in-CA]

Please explain how you compute that. the online sources i find say Rivian has about 1.25 billion shares outstanding - before this offering is added in. So, i estimate the dilution at 6%.

Actually down 13.28% as I type this.

 

[DuoRivians]

IMO, I wouldn’t buy Rivian stock. Unless you think Rivian has a chance to succeed internationally. A domestic US market alone isn’t sufficient that the company makes it.

I don’t think Rivian has a chance internationally. China is just too good and every other country, eg Europe, will enact their own protectionist measures

 

[mkg3]

I own $RivN and actually too much of it as I've averaged down.

If I was thinking about investing in Rivian today, I would not either. I am just looking for acceptable loss and exit. While it may recover some, the growth is limited.

Just need the meme irrational price hike

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Construction costs have probably gone up too, with the construction in boom for data centers. This capital raise is probably essential for keeping GA plant on track.

 

[tivoboy]

That's the total amount and not another $5B. So far Rivian has received ~$3B of that between the JV and the equity exchange.

Today's action is just devaluing the share price. The company value has not changed but the share count has gone up making the existing shares worth less.

It's never a good thing for the existing shareholders. Sounds like the new shares, at least part of it, will be used as a collateral for the DOE loan for GA plant.

Yes, I guess it’s a total of $5.8B now.. but most is to come. This is most like the DOE loan covenants as indicated Above.

 

[SolidTHX1138]

Construction costs have probably gone up too, with the construction in boom for data centers. This capital raise is probably essential for keeping GA plant on track.

Rivian has a great product and a great team but they always seem to be "a day late and dollar short" and playing catch-up to me. Their timing seem to be off by 12 to 18 months getting to market for various reasons to miss big opportunities.

1. 2020 COVID caused delays and supply shortages
2. New administration that is anti green for legacy energy
3. Tax credit $7500 abolished, I would have loved to have this on R2
4. Lead time for R3/R3X is 2 years out

I think all of this is just bad timing for Rivian limiting their potential. I hope the R2 demand is at a point that ramp up schedule will be pulled in.

 

[evguy]

IMO, I wouldn’t buy Rivian stock. Unless you think Rivian has a chance to succeed internationally. A domestic US market alone isn’t sufficient that the company makes it.

I don’t think Rivian has a chance internationally. China is just too good and every other country, eg Europe, will enact their own protectionist measures

It's risky but I have more optimism. The US market is lagging globally but will continue to grow. It's big enough to get Rivian to positive gross margin on the automotive business within the next 12 months or so, which will be the first big inflection point. Then positive earnings in 2028-29, around the time R3/R3X deliveries begin. I think the R3/R3X (if not R2) will do well in Europe. And Rivian will get royalties from VW EVs sold in Europe that use Rivian's tech platform. VW begins producing those EVs next year.

 

[maba2366]

It's risky but I have more optimism. The US market is lagging globally but will continue to grow. It's big enough to get Rivian to positive gross margin on the automotive business within the next 12 months or so, which will be the first big inflection point. Then positive earnings in 2028-29, around the time R3/R3X deliveries begin. I think the R3/R3X (if not R2) will do well in Europe. And Rivian will get royalties from VW EVs sold in Europe that use Rivian's tech platform. VW begins producing those EVs next year.

They need to get into overseas markets ASAP. The path to 150,000 annual sales in the US alone is not going to be a quick or easy one; and the path to 400-500k sales needed for actual profitability is nearly impossible in the US alone.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

They need to get into overseas markets ASAP. The path to 150,000 annual sales in the US alone is not going to be a quick or easy one; and the path to 400-500k sales needed for actual profitability is nearly impossible in the US alone.

Nope. It's obvious, from experiences of early and current owners, that just how insufficient after-sale support can be more damaging to a brand than having no cars to sell.

Rivian's measured plan to begin exports in limited numbers, as early as late 2026, is reasonable and sound. And recent job postings for service techs show efforts are underway.

I've said this before, if Rivian did everything everyone says they should do, they would have already spent themselves into oblivion. The tortoise and the hare. This is not a get-rich-quick business.

 

[DuncIT]

I don’t think Rivian has a chance internationally. China is just too good and every other country, eg Europe, will enact their own protectionist measures

I agree - the US, and to a somewhat lesser degree Canada, are the only countries that want / will buy big trucks. That, and any build or software issues, essentially takes away the remainder of the World market.

 

[mkg3]

Rivian has a great product and a great team but they always seem to be "a day late and dollar short" and playing catch-up to me. Their timing seem to be off by 12 to 18 months getting to market for various reasons to miss big opportunities.

1. 2020 COVID caused delays and supply shortages
2. New administration that is anti green for legacy energy
3. Tax credit $7500 abolished, I would have loved to have this on R2
4. Lead time for R3/R3X is 2 years out

I think all of this is just bad timing for Rivian limiting their potential. I hope the R2 demand is at a point that ramp up schedule will be pulled in.

As RJ repeated several times during the last earnings call, Rivian cannot increase production faster due to the supplier constraints. They have 100s of suppliers and all it takes is one not being able to deliver faster to impact the schedule.

They will start the 2nd shift by the end of the year and be at the full production rate by mid 2027 - was the story at the last earnings call. For Q2, its on for 7/30 so we'll get an update where they stand.

 

[mkg3]

It's risky but I have more optimism. The US market is lagging globally but will continue to grow. It's big enough to get Rivian to positive gross margin on the automotive business within the next 12 months or so, which will be the first big inflection point. Then positive earnings in 2028-29, around the time R3/R3X deliveries begin. I think the R3/R3X (if not R2) will do well in Europe. And Rivian will get royalties from VW EVs sold in Europe that use Rivian's tech platform. VW begins producing those EVs next year.

The thing is, Rivian has very heavy competition now. Here are the list of all EV SUVs in 2026 that cost at or below $60K. There are 30 of them and even if not all are real contenders, people do shop prices:
https://www.motortrend.com/rankings/suvs/electric/under-60k

Also, if history is any indication, best layed plan will be changed. Who knows when R3 will be available and by then, it may be overtaken by events and alternatives.

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