CNBC: A ‘perfect storm’ points to a much smaller U.S. auto market by 2040

[Fmc]

Not surprising. New car sales in the US peaked 10 years ago. I still own my 16 year old wrangler but electrification was the only reason i bought a new car. So who knows what cars will look like in 10 years when i am ready to move on from my R1

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/28/us-auto-market.html

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[Zathras]

Who would have guessed that when prices average $50K that sales would go down?

 

[tgrick]

The US auto industry has serious struggles ahead of it that's for sure. I wish we would have invested more in ourselves as well as retained other industries in which we were the inventor and leaders in those times. At the time America was great, we made the choice to move the work to foreign soil and we did improve profits and save money. I'm not sure how this all ends, and I hope we made the right choices...

 

[Budman]

Rivian will save America.

 

[BigSkies]

Higher car sales needs cheaper cars. Hands down. Regardless of drive train.

I've heard some auto execs say similar things. They know it. They understand it. It seems like Ford is getting the message and developing some cheaper options. Slate is interesting, but hard to imagine being more than a niche.

That being said, the US has been over-investing in automotive infrastructure for decades and under-investing in everything else. Having more people decide to have fewer cars isn't the worst thing in the world. It means more money into things like public transit, e-bikes, micro-mobility, ride-share, etc. Having single-digit percents of the population shift to one-car households or no car households would improve traffic, improve air-quality, and reduce emissions even more than electrification.

 

[Great Gatsby]

Higher car sales needs cheaper cars. Hands down. Regardless of drive train.

I've heard some auto execs say similar things. They know it. They understand it. It seems like Ford is getting the message and developing some cheaper options. Slate is interesting, but hard to imagine being more than a niche.

That being said, the US has been over-investing in automotive infrastructure for decades and under-investing in everything else. Having more people decide to have fewer cars isn't the worst thing in the world. It means more money into things like public transit, e-bikes, micro-mobility, ride-share, etc. Having single-digit percents of the population shift to one-car households or no car households would improve traffic, improve air-quality, and reduce emissions even more than electrification.

Well said. And high speed rail. Can we have some trains over here???

I love cars as much as the next guy but getting some decent alternatives actually sounds kind of nice.

 

[Time2Roll]

Electric bikes seem to be taking over the younger market. Don't need a license for compliant models.

 

[antimatter]

Cost is everything. I've noticed when I sell stuff that $4k seems to be the cut-off between the item selling quickly and it taking some time to find a buyer. US car manufacturers have been depending on monopoly markets to fund their sales, and that practice will always leave distorted markets because it prevents buyers from finding vehicles that meet their needs at a price-point they can actually afford. Eventually all these manufacturers are going to have a come-to-jesus moment when they totally deplete the number of people who are willing to pay their monopoly based prices, and the Chinese figure out a way into the US. Then cue the usual whining, moaning, and looking for a handout from the taxpayers.

 

[corrado90]

Granted price is certainly a challenge but the greater issue maybe the challenges with parking... I spend >$150 month just to park my car at WORK. My employer is actively persuading people to bus and give up on driving... Next consider we need to consider insurance premiums. There have been certainly many posts concerning the costs to insure our Rivians and we must not forget all of the shopping/browsing and errands that Amazon and Istacart have replaced.... folks have forgone going to the mall and grocers for doom scrolling. So our 4 car families are likely level setting... will we see a return to 1 car family -maybe? Riddle me this -- when was the last time you needed a stamp to mail a bill payment? Candidly, I believe the issue with the auto industry is more complicated than cost.. We have seen this to some extent with the introduction of the internet in 1994... and now to a greater extent with AI introduced widespread in 2024 --each introduction was a disruptive technology. We are only now beginning to witness how each of these disruptions have changed our behaviors. My guess is the CNBC article is only going to be the first of many as the auto industry adapts - perhaps similarly to the way Studebaker adapted 100 years ago from wagon building to automobile manufacturing, but alas when was the last time you saw a Studebaker automobile? I'll finish with a challenge -- who knew in 1976 that malls would be dead by the 250th birthday celebration of our nation, my guess they are likely the same folks who missed the demise of our nation's Main Streets for malls. Happy Fourth - Enjoy the adventure while we can.

 

[Dasoss]

The US auto industry has serious struggles ahead of it that's for sure. I wish we would have invested more in ourselves as well as retained other industries in which we were the inventor and leaders in those times. At the time America was great, we made the choice to move the work to foreign soil and we did improve profits and save money. I'm not sure how this all ends, and I hope we made the right choices...

They don't make cars like they used to, thank goodness. I'm old enough to rember when it was unusual for a car to last 5 years before it was unreliable junk. Before the Rivian, I drove a MINI for 22 years. The MINI only stopped when it was totaled. And yes, an R1S Quad is a lot different from a MINI. Buyers have come to expect higher reliability. That comes at a cost. Higher prices, lower lifetime cost, and less obsolescence all depress demand. That, and many new cars seem to be alike these days.

 

[NY_Rob]

Rivian will save America.

But will America save Rivian?

 

[Zathras]

But will America save Rivian?

If they care about ever making relevant usable cars, yep.

 

[mkg3]

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/28/us-auto-market.html

Very typical CNBC reporting. Too much assertions, unsubstantiated interpretations on what the data says and telling the story to match their own predetermined conclusions.

1) Legal immigration has not chanced and illegal immigrants typically do not buy new vehicles immediately.

2) Decline of 16 yr olds getting a driver's license is a fact but they all do eventually as the story concedes, which means they are simply delaying their vehicle purchases.

3) Robotaxi will happen and if it were to impact the private vehicle purchases, it simply shifts to the robotaxi operators needing larger fleet and replacement cycle. Further, the notion of Robotaxi is great for cities, what happens when people want to camp, move gear from place to place, road trips and so on. Does anyone think that we stop engaging in freedom of movement at our convenience?

The average transaction for new car sales today is $51,940, up $2,413 from a year ago (https://www.autonews.com/) and while most shopper base their vehicle purchases on a monthly payment, as the vehicle price goes up, so do the payments and/or loan terms. This is a real issue.

The automakers are keenly aware of the price issue and many are introducing low priced models that are between $20K~$30K. This will impact the used vehicle market but will spur new vehicle sales.

In late 2000's, there was a big debate about VR replacing people needing to travel. In fact, during Covid, people stopped and started doing virtual meetings for business and that worked for a while. Today, business travel and personal travel are at a higher levels than pre-Covid years.

In other words, auto sales are cyclic and the kind of numbers in this CNBC story is not alarming. In 2009, we sold 10.4 million new vehicles - less than expected in this story.

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