2021 Q3 Rivian Shareholder Letter – December 16, 2021. 71K Preorders Received

[mkennedy1996]

I enjoyed the call, very typical earnings call, but some good information.
Two things I noticed:

1. The Shareholder Letter states "Through our first customer deliveries of 11 R1Ts, we generated total revenue of $1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2021."
Those are fully loaded trucks with tent and kitchen and probably a few other add-ons. Not bad.

2. We really don't know what the number of existing pre-orders that are still active are. The language is vague. Does 71,000 pre-orders account for the people that cancelled? Or are they included in that number? I'd tend to lean that they have relatively few cancellations, but who knows.

They were referred to as “net” reservations so I would say net of cancellations

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[mkg3]

The S1 was complete preorders (at that time c. 55k) by end 2023, now it seems the 71k order maybe be filled by then. I am still cautiously optimistic that those original 55k orders are filled by Q3 2023....

RJ answered the question clearly.

He said all the preorders will be filled by 2023 and if you order now, it would be in 2023. In other words, all the preorders (71K) to be filled by the end of 2022.

Clearly there's always a chance for slippage but at least there is a flag in the ground for those of you who keep saying 2024~2050!

 

[mike22co]

They were referred to as “net” reservations so I would say net of cancellations

Thank you for catching that! The letter does not use the "net" language in it and I couldn't remember for sure what the call mentioned. I'm glad there are more ears than just mine!

 

[AllInev]

They never claimed their production numbers to be conservative, we did. Their production numbers were simply extrapolating the current daily production rate at the time they made them through the end of the year. What other method would one use? You surely wouldn't take a negative approach of assuming an unforeseen hiccup, nor would you bake in hopes of ramping for such a forecast.

They also implied that they made decisions that focused on longer term production ramp in sacrifice of short term production.

Yes, I agree with you. I suppose my main point is that they missed their short-term production numbers and that's going to hurt the stock --hopefully just in the short-term.

 

[BradSomrak]

RJ answered the question clearly.

He said all the preorders will be filled by 2023 and if you order now, it would be in 2023. In other words, all the preorders (71K) to be filled by the end of 2022.

Clearly there's always a chance for slippage but at least there is a flag in the ground for those of you who keep saying 2024~2050!

Was that a typo? You mean all preorders (71k) will be filled by the end of 2023? Because that is what I heard.

 

[Dbeglor]

Yes, I agree with you. I suppose my main point is that they missed their short-term production numbers and that's going to hurt the stock --hopefully just in the short-term.

Yep, well it will definitely be in the short term because it won't be long before there will be some other reason to buy or sell.

 

[Guy]

Was that a typo? You mean all preorders (71k) will be filled by the end of 2023? Because that is what I heard.

If that is true, and it is what I heard too, then it is an acceleration. Since originally was the 55000 by end of 23 now 71000 by the end of 23. Admittedly they should be around 7-9k a month by then so the extra 16000 is a couple of months extra.

 

[ironpig]

The call was about what I expected, but they won't deliver 71k trucks by the end of 2023.

I expect them to fully deliver (in customers hands) about 10-12K trucks next year. I don't see them delivering another 58-60K trucks 2023.

 

[TessP100D]

Nothing much here that we didn't already know. I was guessing 70-75k pre-orders as well. RIVN has already recovered from the big after hours dip, and is only off a percent from the close. Doesn't seem to be much to see here.

Look closer please

 

[MIG]

I hit the nail on the head for reservations. Guessed 70-75k.

That's a sizeable nailhead.

 

[kylealden]

Already missing production targets. Not awesome.

Post-market trading appears to be equally concerned.

lol, we're in the "hundreds" stage. None of this extrapolates to the long-term production ramp.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

Just sitting here watching the stock price and waiting to buy back in..

 

[ChrissyOne]

Look closer please

A lot has happened since then. ?

 

[Jferreira65]

RJ answered the question clearly.

He said all the preorders will be filled by 2023 and if you order now, it would be in 2023. In other words, all the preorders (71K) to be filled by the end of 2022.

Clearly there's always a chance for slippage but at least there is a flag in the ground for those of you who keep saying 2024~2050!

I wonder how true this will be. Considering a lot of the launch editions are being delivered well into late next year, they must be planning to simultaneously deliver regular preorders through the year; that’s the only way they will get them all in by years end.

 

[mkg3]

Was that a typo? You mean all preorders (71k) will be filled by the end of 2023? Because that is what I heard.

Not a typo.

You can go back and listen for yourself. Its the follow up question part from Adam Jonas at 26:25 into the earnings call during Q&A.

Again, RJ says the. plan is to deliver the preorders by 2023 (end of 2022) and new preorders now would go into 2023.

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