Autonomy Platform for Gen 1 vehicles

[Zoidz]

1) Disagree we’re not talking about going to the new architecture we’re talking about replacing the cameras they would still connect over their existing coax to retrofitted ADAS computer with similar spec to the new ADAS computer the software branches to do that would not be unmanageably divergent.

Cameras are around $97 retail and the R1T has 11 so
- $1067
the new ADAS computer based on comparables would be about
- $1500
Lets just say a full week of labour to be totally safe so at their shop rate of $170 an hour thats
-$6800 in labour ( but that’s likely a gross over estimate)

$9367 I’d be totally fine with that and these are retail costs they pay closer to $10 for cameras but likely a slimmer margin for the ADAS computer



2) how so comparative with the current two systems?

3) completely disagree as someone who works in software engineering this is completely managable

You missed several costs that have to be allocated to a low production run hardware device:
- Design/Development costs for a retrofit ADAS. It's unlikely that a circuit board exists that would be completely plug and play.

- It is considered a life safety system so a validation program would need to be designed and executed. Per the information below, ADAS validation efforts can cost $120M. Even if we assume that somehow they could reuse over 50% of the Gen 1 validation effort, validation could cost $50M. But having experience with FDA validation, they tend to frown on cutting corners this way. But if they could cut validations costs, and if Rivian sold 30,000 upgrades, validation costs per unit alone would be $1600. This is just one of the reasons why I say it is impractical to offer an upgrade - many hidden costs. When it is spread over 30,000 vs. 500,000 or 2 million units, the costs become enormous per unit for a small run.

"In a 2021 report by McKinsey & Company, analysis shows that a third of the development costs to bring a Level 4 car to market – up to US$400m – is spent in the verifying of automated systems. For more complex use cases such as a Level 4 robotaxi, equivalent testing could cost US$1.6bn and account for 50% of the overall vehicle development costs."

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[LiamM]

You missed several costs that have to be allocated to a low production run hardware device:
- Design/Development costs for a retrofit ADAS. It's unlikely that a circuit board exists that would be completely plug and play.

- It is considered a life safety system so a validation program would need to be designed and executed. Per the information below, ADAS validation efforts can cost $120M. Even if we assume that somehow they could reuse over 50% of the Gen 1 validation effort, validation could cost $50M. But having experience with FDA validation, they tend to frown on cutting corners this way. But if they could cut validations costs, and if Rivian sold 30,000 upgrades, validation costs per unit alone would be $1600. This is just one of the reasons why I say it is impractical to offer an upgrade - many hidden costs. When it is spread over 30,000 vs. 500,000 or 2 million units, the costs become enormous per unit for a small run.

"In a 2021 report by McKinsey & Company, analysis shows that a third of the development costs to bring a Level 4 car to market – up to US$400m – is spent in the verifying of automated systems. For more complex use cases such as a Level 4 robotaxi, equivalent testing could cost US$1.6bn and account for 50% of the overall vehicle development costs."

Except that's a misrepresentation of how ADAS safety validation is done. The numbers you're quoting are the costs spent to go from nothing to a a validated level 4 autonomy system. These costs go up exponentially as you progress through the SAE autonomy levels validation of level 1 systems like we see in the Gen1 R1 and level 2 systems we see in the Gen2 are far less than the costs to validate a level 4 system. the costs increases exponentially as the autonomy levels increase. The process goes through validation of component inputs and out puts ( all of which is done already so that part is a sunk cost at this point) a retrofit would require full stack validation which is also a sunk cost it's required on an ongoing basis to validate ADAS software updates as it is. Would there be zero additional validation cost no but by no means as astronomical as you're proposing. This is exemplified in your own example which cites that a level 4 system validation cost is up to $400 million but when intended as a robotaxi balloons to 1.6 Billion. That works in the opposite direction it's orders of magnitude more economical to validate a level 2 system compared to a level 4 system

 

[Zoidz]

Except that's a misrepresentation of how ADAS safety validation is done. The numbers you're quoting are the costs spent to go from nothing to a a validated level 4 autonomy system. These costs go up exponentially as you progress through the SAE autonomy levels validation of level 1 systems like we see in the Gen1 R1 and level 2 systems we see in the Gen2 are far less than the costs to validate a level 4 system. the costs increases exponentially as the autonomy levels increase. The process goes through validation of component inputs and out puts ( all of which is done already so that part is a sunk cost at this point) a retrofit would require full stack validation which is also a sunk cost it's required on an ongoing basis to validate ADAS software updates as it is. Would there be zero additional validation cost no but by no means as astronomical as you're proposing. This is exemplified in your own example which cites that a level 4 system validation cost is up to $400 million but when intended as a robotaxi balloons to 1.6 Billion. That works in the opposite direction it's orders of magnitude more economical to validate a level 2 system compared to a level 4 system

I’m not misrepresenting anything. I’m quoting an article that I provided a link to that provided the costs, not me, and I specifically stated that Rivian might be able to cut costs compared to the linked document. Having done FDA food and pharmaceutical engineering projects that required validation, as well as revalidation after upgrades, I know enough to know that the effort and costs can be extensive. Feel free to post a link to a document showing actual costs of validating a rework ADAS system on an existing vehicle.

 

[LiamM]

I’m not misrepresenting anything. I’m quoting an article that I provided a link to that provided the costs, not me, and I specifically stated that Rivian might be able to cut costs compared to the linked document. Having done FDA food and pharmaceutical engineering projects that required validation, as well as revalidation after upgrades, I know enough to know that the effort and costs can be extensive. Feel free to post a link to a document showing actual costs of validating a rework ADAS system on an existing vehicle.

NHTSA ADAS testing is nowhere near as rigorous as FDA testing/validation. The comparison is not a valid one. Especially considering the NHTSA has no autonomy based testing requirements as of today their ADAS testing is specifically “ lane departure warning, forward collision warning, crash imminent braking, and dynamic brake support” Level 4 autonomy does however require a ton of regulatory approval and testing which is why it’s so expensive as outlined in the article you linked. You’re being blinded to the realities in the automotive/technology space by your experience with the FDA these things are not the same

 

[Zoidz]

NHTSA ADAS testing is nowhere near as rigorous as FDA testing/validation. The comparison is not a valid one. Especially considering the NHTSA has no autonomy based testing requirements as of today their ADAS testing is specifically “ lane departure warning, forward collision warning, crash imminent braking, and dynamic brake support” Level 4 autonomy does however require a ton of regulatory approval and testing which is why it’s so expensive as outlined in the article you linked. You’re being blinded to the realities in the automotive/technology space by your experience with the FDA these things are not the same

You're reading waaay waaaay too much into my comment regarding FDA. I stated " I know enough to know that the effort and costs [of validation and revalidation] can be extensive. " Reiterating "can be" - which was in deference to the article I linked about the possible costs and not a comparison. Nothing more, nothing less and no blinding, lol.

NHTSA references ISO 26262 and Euro NCAP which establish testing and validation requirements.

I have no agenda here other than to provide some supporting facts as to why Rivian offering a Gen1 ADAS upgrade is not a practical. Once again, I ask you to provide some online references to actual costs for validating and revalidating L3 ADAS systems which I will gladly accept. Until then, there's really nothing more to discuss.

 

[LiamM]

You're reading waaay waaaay too much into my comment regarding FDA. I stated " I know enough to know that the effort and costs [of validation and revalidation] can be extensive. " Reiterating "can be" - which was in deference to the article I linked about the possible costs and not a comparison. Nothing more, nothing less and no blinding, lol.

NHTSA references ISO 26262 and Euro NCAP which establish testing and validation requirements.

I have no agenda here other than to provide some supporting facts as to why Rivian offering a Gen1 ADAS upgrade is not a practical. Once again, I ask you to provide some online references to actual costs for validating and revalidating L3 ADAS systems which I will gladly accept. Until then, there's really nothing more to discuss.

Level 2 not level 3. I can’t give you a number because it’s not a fixed number or a fixed process. There is simply no fixed validation/testing/revalidating requirement for Rivian to meet for updating a level 2 system today. They could produce the upgrade run it through a trial style closed course test and sell it legally. This is literally why Tesla has gotten away with so much

 

[Rivianready]

Disappointed. I wonder if this will make our Gen 1 depreciate faster?

 

[Rivtony]

Disappointed. I wonder if this will make our Gen 1 depreciate faster?

Probably.

It will be interesting to see what will happen at the end of those thousands of leasing they've been doing in the past months.
All have a high residual which will likely be unrealistic for a Gen1.
The customers will either return it or Rivian will have to make some pretty good sale deals.

 

[Q-Dub23]

Argue what you will, Rivian advertised certain capabilities would come to R1s (gen 1) prior to even delivering the first vehicle. They are going to open themselves up to a vast amount of expensive ligation to go back on announced, upcoming, features that may or may not have enticed someone to buy one of their vehicles.

Have to agree. They changed their website recently but for a long time it advertised hands-free driving as being available. Clearly misleading to a consumer. It's a bait and switch you l rarely see from a big company without some compensation. Given the dollars involved, I'm actually surprised a consumer class action firm hasn't brought suit notwithstanding the class action waiver and mandatory arbitration clauses.

 

[dekeen]

Better off waiting for a version of Open Pilot that will work on R1. It's in the works and likely a better solution anyway.

 

[DayTripping]

That sounds interesting. Where can you find more info about it?

 

[dekeen]

That sounds interesting. Where can you find more info about it?

https://comma.ai/

 

[Egen]

https://comma.ai/

Have you seen any confirmation that it’s being worked on? I saw a tweet a few months ago from Comma’s main account that had a 3k bounty for whoever ports it to Rivian (if that’s the correct term).

 

[dekeen]

Have you seen any confirmation that it’s being worked on? I saw a tweet a few months ago from Comma’s main account that had a 3k bounty for whoever ports it to Rivian (if that’s the correct term).

Yes, there is a discussion on the Comma AI channel on Discord.

https://discord.com/channels/469524606043160576/1196513491025133638

 

[Egen]

Yes, there is a discussion on the Comma AI channel on Discord.

https://discord.com/channels/469524606043160576/1196513491025133638

Not on discord, but will have to make an account to check it out. Thank you

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