Guide Contacts & Counting by Thanksgiving?? Can they do it??

[mgc0216]

I always assumed that if you had a reservation by X date (not sure what date that would be) you would get an LE.

Sounds like folks are saying you could have put a reservation in way early, but slept on getting into the configurator and not get an LE?

Them shutting down LEs I thought was them saying "any deposits after this date will not be for an LE" vs. "If you haven't configured a truck by this date even if you had a reservation for over a year you don't get an LE"

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[EVTrucking]

I agree. My car warranty expired recently and the shorter the time until I trade it in the better.
That said, please refer to the IPO materials. They really can't spew much BS when it comes to that. They anticipate a few thousand vehicles delivered in 2021. Unless we see a postponement of the IPO, I guarantee that we're going to see vehicles cranking out of Normal within the next 6 weeks. At least 1000 per week will start shipping prior to the IPO.
My reservation number is somewhere around 16,000 and I reserved in Oct 2019. I've always figured or guessed that there'd be at least 15-20000 LE orders. At a production clip of 5000 vehicles per month that would indicate the Spring 2022 final delivery date is pretty reasonable

IMO it does not matter what the IPO says, what matters is what Rivian can reasonably do.

I just don’t see Rivian hitting 1000 vehicles per week (produce AND deliver) consistently for 6-9 months or longer. My many years of HVM semiconductor manufacturing and R&D tells me that my estimate of Rivian’s production and delivery ramp is optimistic.

Rivian still needs 1500+ people, and currently it appears they are at 0 produced and delivered to the general public. The production numbers Rivian has shared are goals. They have NOT shared their estimated timeline to reach them.

IMO Rivian will do the best that can be done. When moving from pilot to HVM you simply cannot flip a switch, there has to be a ramp over an extended period of time. That’s reality.

I also do not think Rivian’s investors expect Rivian to hit those production/delivery numbers right out of the gate. They know first hand the challenges Rivian faces.

 

[SeaGeo]

I also do not think Rivian’s investors expect Rivian to hit those production/delivery numbers right out of the gate. They know first hand the challenges Rivian faces.

Well, soon enough their investors will also be the general public, who may not be so patient about how to ramp up production. It takes a certain type of CEO to hold a long view and chase growth over profit in a publicly traded company without pissing off investors. Or at least it used to. Though I suspect RJ has at the phone number of at least one person with recent history doing that.

 

[svet-am]

Well, soon enough their investors will also be the general public, who may not be so patient about how to ramp up production. It takes a certain type of CEO to hold a long view and chase growth over profit in a publicly traded company without pissing off investors. Or at least it used to. Though I suspect RJ has at the phone number of at least one person with recent history doing that.

Agree 100%. As someone who has direct experience working for both very large publicly traded companies AND very large private companies, once RJ has a board and shareholders to deal with I expect his demeanor (and choices) to change considerably. IPOs are not free money. The chains are invisible.

 

[MoreTrout]

I always assumed that if you had a reservation by X date (not sure what date that would be) you would get an LE.

Sounds like folks are saying you could have put a reservation in way early, but slept on getting into the configurator and not get an LE?

Them shutting down LEs I thought was them saying "any deposits after this date will not be for an LE" vs. "If you haven't configured a truck by this date even if you had a reservation for over a year you don't get an LE"

Sort of, but not exactly. Many early preorder holders chose not to get a LE because they wanted a max pack. When they opened the configurator including the LE, only existing preorder holder had access for a set period of time so they could elect to order a LE if desired. After a set time, it was opened to all new orders. They had a quota for LEs (which they have never shared), and it filled rather quickly. I had an existing preorder when it opened so could have ordered a LE, but was already set on getting a max pack, which is much different than "slept on getting into the configurator".

 

[BigE]

I'm a 12/3/2018 pre order date with a LE R1S. No contact yet. I've been wondering the same. How will they manage to contact everyone in a reasonable time. I'm order like 29xx if I recall. But with no guide introduction yet, it makes me wonder if I'm even going to get something this calendar year.

My Deposit date is close to yours on 12/12/2018. I spoke with Rivian this week as my wife is growing restless in what has now been almost 3 years of thinking and anticipating the R1T. My configuration is for R1T Max Pack. My question to Rivian was after Thanksgiving or maybe into December will I get a call from a guide? The answer was, deposit/pre-order date is only 1 factor and that I should Not anticipate a call this year. She stated, guides are reaching out when you are within ~60 days of production. At this point, with all the challenges of a start-up, I'm quickly losing hope of getting an R1T in 2022. If that is the case, then I'm starting to wonder do I just wait for the refreshed R1T in a few years. After all, much of the development of the R1T was 2015-2018, 400v system architecture, will they move to 800v, no heat pump today, 180-degree drop tailgate, etc. etc...

 

[DB-EV]

My Deposit date is close to yours on 12/12/2018. I spoke with Rivian this week as my wife is growing restless in what has now been almost 3 years of thinking and anticipating the R1T. My configuration is for R1T Max Pack. My question to Rivian was after Thanksgiving or maybe into December will I get a call from a guide? The answer was, deposit/pre-order date is only 1 factor and that I should Not anticipate a call this year. She stated, guides are reaching out when you are within ~60 days of production. At this point, with all the challenges of a start-up, I'm quickly losing hope of getting an R1T in 2022. If that is the case, then I'm starting to wonder do I just wait for the refreshed R1T in a few years. After all, much of the development of the R1T was 2015-2018, 400v system architecture, will they move to 800v, no heat pump today, 180-degree drop tailgate, etc. etc...

: (

Is this because Max pack cannot be considered as part of LE?

 

[BigE]

: (

Is this because Max pack cannot be considered as part of LE?

Yes, when I placed my order, the LE was only available in the Large pack. Max pack production/deliveries will start in January per Rivian.

 

[DB-EV]

Agree 100%. As someone who has direct experience working for both very large publicly traded companies AND very large private companies, once RJ has a board and shareholders to deal with I expect his demeanor (and choices) to change considerably. IPOs are not free money. The chains are invisible.

Two thoughts:

1. The chains are kind of visible.
2. The way Amazon structured its contract and investment, arguably the chains are already there (hence so many of us complaining about Amazon being prioritized)

 

[DB-EV]

I find it particularly frustrating after all the build up of September.

1. MT TAT series starts
2. Breckenridge media event
3. “Deliveries” start!
4. ……deafening silence.

This vehicle has clearly not launched and it’s starting to feel like Rivian is being pretty dishonest about it.

For perspective, they are not providing any kind of estimated delivery timeframe other than “stay close to the phone for your guide call!”. Even Tesla provides an estimated delivery window.

I fully expected communication to greatly improve once deliveries start.

The common thread could be these were things that assist the IPO filing but not us.

At this point, I subjectively believe they need the IPO money more than they need us. The filing says the proceeds would only give them enough cash for 12 mos. Which is probably conservative . . . .

That said, this is normal for a startup based on what I know of the only potential comparison, Tesla. The musk bio noted that they had engineers (ie all hands) calling reservation holders to convince them not to pull reservations . . . .

Yes, I like elipses . . . .

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

The common thread could be these were things that assist the IPO filing but not us.

At this point, I subjectively believe they need the IPO money more than they need us. The filing says the proceeds would only give them enough cash for 12 mos. Which is probably conservative . . . .

That said, this is normal for a startup based on what I know of the only potential comparison, Tesla. The musk bio noted that they had engineers (ie all hands) calling reservation holders to convince them not to pull reservations . . . .

Yes, I like elipses . . . .

They are targeting $8b raised through the IPO, in a span of a week or so. All of the R1 preorders combined equals about $3.5b, spread over 2 years. Something, even relatively minor, could literally cost them a billion dollars in capital raised if it affects their IPO, compared with maybe a few million lost in the form of cancelled preorders due to disillusioned prospective customers.

 

[stynes]

Yes, when I placed my order, the LE was only available in the Large pack. Max pack production/deliveries will start in January per Rivian.

If you're that early and they're contacting within 60 days or production, that just means there's no way they're starting max pack production in January, unfortunately. Honestly, that's one of the questions I'll have for them when they do call - what's the time difference between getting my current R1S LE delivered vs if I switch to max pack. If that's a few months then I may switch. If it's a year or more, I'll keep my LE.

 

[TXR1S]

The common thread could be these were things that assist the IPO filing but not us.

At this point, I subjectively believe they need the IPO money more than they need us. The filing says the proceeds would only give them enough cash for 12 mos. Which is probably conservative . . . .

That said, this is normal for a startup based on what I know of the only potential comparison, Tesla. The musk bio noted that they had engineers (ie all hands) calling reservation holders to convince them not to pull reservations . . . .

Yes, I like elipses . . . .

Great point, and I absolutely think you’re right.

 

[BigE]

I had not seen this Tweet from Jeff Bezos. "Now, RJ, where are our vans?!"

 

[bowhunter]

If you're that early and they're contacting within 60 days or production, that just means there's no way they're starting max pack production in January, unfortunately. Honestly, that's one of the questions I'll have for them when they do call - what's the time difference between getting my current R1S LE delivered vs if I switch to max pack. If that's a few months then I may switch. If it's a year or more, I'll keep my LE.

I had asked my guide that question and he said that they can't provide an estimate on max pack delivery timeframes yet.

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