Ford Ditches Electric SUV: Is it Time to Address the Elephant in the Room?

[SASSquatch]

Is it time to start worrying about Rivian from an EV demand perspective? Hybrids and plug-in hybrid sales have surged while EV sales have largely plateaued.

The significant disadvantage that Rivian has next to nearly all OEMs is that it cannot rely on sales of hybrids, PHEVs, or ICE vehicles to survive a drop-off in EV demand.

Tesla is in a different boat because there was effectively no EV market when they released the M3 and ushered in the era of mass EV adoption. The R1, R2, and R3 vehicles face intense competition not just from other EV's but more critically hybrids and PHEV's.

This may be a very unpopular opinion, but as someone who has supported Rivian from Day 1, was an early reservation holder of R1 and now R2, and a stock holder who has invested six figures into Rivian, I think they need to strongly consider leveraging their partnership with Volkswagen to introduce a hybrid or PHEV vehicle. Edit: preferably an EREV.

It doesn't fit within Rivian's brand ethos to sell such a car directly, but VW can benefit directly from Rivian's innovation in battery electric systems while leveraging their expertise with the ICE part of the platform to introduce a jointly developed vehicle under the VW brand. This would give Rivian access to the hybrid and PHEV market, bring in critical capital, and still preserve the Rivian lineup as being EV only.

Food for thought.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-ditches-electric-suv-heres-072400825.html

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[emoore]

No hybrids. They are a temporary solution at best.

 

[COdogman]

When I look at the companies waffling and going with hybrids over EVs I see Toyota who has literally fought EV adoption kicking and screaming, and companies like Ford and GM who are undercutting their own EVs by offering ICE and hybrid alternatives that compete directly with them. I defy anyone to make sense of Ford and GM’s EV strategy… It’s incoherent.

The companies that make EVs people want to own and drive are seeing plenty of demand. That includes Kia, Hyundai, Tesla, Rivian. Tesla has seen a huge drop in market share, but they still sit on top of the mountain, despite the valid concerns rational folks have with their leadership.

I hope Rivian doesn’t make a hybrid, but if they do I suppose it would have A VW badge on it and wouldn’t necessarily hurt their own business depending on what it was…

 

[BigSkies]

This is one of the dumbest things I’ve read.

Rivian is a strong competitor in the EV market because it has market leading technology for EV’s, as well as a dedicated EV platform developed over many years.

Even if Rivian wanted to play the PHEV game, it would take half a decade to get one to market and would take billions in capital they don’t have.

The eventual winners in the EV wars will be based on scale and cost management. Ford can’t manage costs until they have a dedicated EV platform. I believe Rivian has a good path to both scale and lower costs, but success is far from certain.

 

[Ralph]

We need a new poll.

Will Rivian ever make a product that Sassquatch will actually take delivery on?

 

[richpike]

That is a terrible, AI written, clickbait article. The reason EV sales are flat is because Tesla has declined (which you can argue there are others issues there beyond demand). Plenty of growth in other brands (including Ford). The demand for a R2 and R3 like product are off the charts, especially as Rivian goes in to other countries.

-Rich

 

[CompilerBreak]

At a ~6% interest rate, nobody I know wants to buy a new car, period. Just look at the lease deals a few months back. They cleared out all the inventory (I wasn't even planning to upgrade and it convinced me)

 

[SASSquatch]

This is one of the dumbest things I’ve read.

Rivian is a strong competitor in the EV market because it has market leading technology for EV’s, as well as a dedicated EV platform developed over many years.

Even if Rivian wanted to play the PHEV game, it would take half a decade to get one to market and would take billions in capital they don’t have.

The eventual winners in the EV wars will be based on scale and cost management. Ford can’t manage costs until they have a dedicated EV platform. I believe Rivian has a good path to both scale and lower costs, but success is far from certain.

Apparently you don't read well if this is the dumbest thing you've read because I never said Rivian should sell a hybrid or PHEV. I said they should leverage their partnership with VW to provide their IP for battery/electric motor for something co-developed with VW and sold by VW.

Rivian doesn't have a good path if the demand in the market isn't there.

Every OEM not named Tesla is bleeding $$ on EV's because the market has spoken and people want hybrids and PHEV's.

 

[josh0]

BYD seems to be doing pretty well…

 

[SASSquatch]

We need a new poll.

Will Rivian ever make a product that Sassquatch will actually take delivery on?

At a ~6% interest rate, nobody I know wants to buy a new car, period. Just look at the lease deals a few months back. They cleared out all the inventory (I wasn't even planning to upgrade and it convinced me)

Except people are buying hybrids and PHEV's - even at 6%.

I don't agree with the concept behind hybrids and PHEV's but it doesn't matter what I think. It matters what the market thinks.

Rivian is burning through all of it's cash. They effectively were bailed out by VW.

 

[SASSquatch]

BYD seems to be doing pretty well…

Wrong market.

 

[electruck]

Ford and Chevy have to contend with a legacy customer base that are going to be among the last to convert to BEV. Combine that with some only marginally compelling BEV product offerings and transitioning to BEV via hybrid makes some sense for them. And let's be realistic here, Rivian is never going to sell hundreds of thousands of $100k vehicles per year. They won't see significant growth of sales volume until R2 and R3 hit the streets. Personally, I see the hybrid detour by Ford and Chevy as a blessing for Rivian giving them more time to bring the products people actually want to market at a price they can more easily afford. Rivian just needs to stay the course.

 

[Ralph]

Except people are buying hybrids and PHEV's - even at 6%.

I don't agree with the concept behind hybrids and PHEV's but it doesn't matter what I think. It matters what the market thinks.

Rivian is burning through all of it's cash. They effectively were bailed out by VW.

And yet somehow, VW believes they are getting something for their money. Stupid Rivian.*

* Emoji added for clarity, no need to confuse people.

 

[SASSquatch]

No hybrids. They are a temporary solution at best.

I don't disagree with you. But they offer a path to electrification for consumers that are deeply skeptical of EV's and don't want a lifestyle change.

The numbers in terms of hybrid and PHEV sales are irrefutable and that is what is driving OEMs to back off of plans to introduce EV only lineups and to extend their plans for ICE and hybrid/PHEV vehicles.

The question is how does Rivian survive in this climate?

 

[SASSquatch]

And yet somehow, VW believes they are getting something for their money. Stupid Rivian.

What is your point, exactly? Of course VW is getting something. That isn't at issue. If VW doesn't step in, Rivian has to go borrow from capital markets (and may still have to) at rates that aren't going to help them become profitable.

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