Rivian going out of business? Should I buy or lease? [LOCKED DUE TO POLITICS]

[DZTR7]

Hi folks,

On my way to pick up a used Rivian this week, on which I am getting a great deal. .I keep hearing concerns about the long term viability of the company. I really like the car.Should this change the decision whether to buy outright vs finance vs leasing a new vehicle?

I heard VW might buy them out in the long term. Thoughts on this? Thanks

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[DD4ST]

I don’t think VW is going to buy Rivian anytime soon. It is way too premature for those talks to be happening. But the first step towards that has happened. As for survivability, analyst projections pre-VW were that Rivian would experience a significant cash crunch in Dec 2025. With VW pledging to add billions to Rivian’s worth over time, this timeline has been pushed out years, maybe indefinitely. In addition, Rivian has a loyal following and high satisfaction numbers, and plans to attain profitability. So, I think the risk is low of bankruptcy, but it is there none-the-less, and there are competitors out there that will try to make Rivians seem unaffordable by cutting prices (Ford anyone?). All things being equal, a lease preserves your options in case of bankruptcy but may limit modifications you may want to make because you don’t own the vehicle. If it was me, I would accept the risk and simply go with whatever route is the best deal and fits what you want to do with the Rivian.

 

[DZTR7]

I really want to own and used seems like a good option bc steep depreciation. Getting a 2023 R1T in limestone/ocean coast w quad motor with 3K mileage for 65 K. Fell in love w it. I take it that the reliability is good on these vehicles but hard to find much objective data. And I don’t put much stock in the subpar CR reliability rating. So even though I get a lot of warranty left, the viability of the company gave me some pause.

 

[COdogman]

Rivian isn’t perfect and there is no guarantee about the future. They are trending in the right direction with the cost savings they created with gen 2 vehicles. And the R2 and R3 are more affordable vehicles that will be of interest to many new customers. You have to go with your gut - it’s your money. FWIW my R1T is the best vehicle I’ve ever owned by a huge margin.

 

[beyondgravity]

It is the best vehicle I have ever owned across Toyotas, lexuses and fords. The deep depreciation is an artifact of pre-March pricing and Tesla super sales. It is pre-mature to talk about long term viability.

 

[PappaBolt]

Any vehicle manufacturer can go out of business. Buy the R1T if you like it. Rivian isn’t about to fold.

 

[SPITmadFIRE]

I'm currently driving a rental Jeep while my Rivian is in the shop for some minor door alignment fixes, and I'm hating every single moment of it.

Buy the Rivian, never look back.

 

[SANZC02]

Viability is a tough question to ask. They are still early in their life having only started shipping less than 3 years ago.

In reality any startup has a rough road to travel, statistics say only 10% (1 out of 10) survive and less than 1% become large companies like Tesla or Apple.

They have decent backing with Amazon and the new deal with VW. They also have a decent product that is even better with the recent G2 release that should get them to a positive gross profit in Q4, 2024.

They are testing the commercial vans with other vendors outside of Amazon. They have a deal to supply the EDV chassis to the vendor making Canadian mail trucks. They announced the more mass market R2, R3, and R3x to start shipping in the future with R2 starting in early 2026.

This is all positive things for future potential.

The real question is what is your financial liability if the vehicle becomes a lawn ornament in a couple of years. Is it a risk that does not affect your long term financial plans. In my opinion most of us that took delivery in the first 2 years took a larger risk than people purchasing today.

 

[Eric9610]

Rivian has proven demand exists for its cars. And the buyer group is one that many companies not just auto companies covet. Rivian in some way or shape will survive. Heck apple could buy them and keep running them and Steve... I mean Tim would not even need board approval. I could also see chase acquiring them and keeping everything as is. Heck LVMH could even be a player.

You have nothing to worry about.

As others have stated only 2 other cars have been as enjoyable as the Rivian to drive that I have owned in the past, A Porsche 911 cab and a lotus Elise.

 

[Franksmartin]

You’re talking to people who took delivery in 2022, compared to then this is a very low risk purchase. Worst case IMO is a buyout and given how many ICE makers are behind on EVs there would be no shortage of interested suitors.

 

[Electrified Outdoors]

Rivian has quite a bit of cash and its backers have deep pockets.

Doesn't Amazon have more into Rivian than VW? I see these investments as further proof that rivian will remain for the long-term. These companies will want a return on their investments.

In the absolute worst case scenario, and I don't see this happening, but I think Rivian has built enough of a reputation and a brand that they would be acquired by another OEM.

As far as the near term though rivian has enough cash at this point I believe to get to R2 ramp which is what rivian really needs that mass-market vehicle. That's what made Tesla take off....and silenced all the noise that Tesla was going backrupt.

 

[Rudylake]

Rivian needs to fix their service center wait, make parts for repair more quickly available and make the new production models of higher quality and more reliable. The word is getting out on the issues people are having and it will hurt the business. Perception of Rivian could be getting damaged.

 

[SANZC02]

Rivian needs to fix their service center wait, make parts for repair more quickly available and make the new production models of higher quality and more reliable. The word is getting out on the issues people are having and it will hurt the business. Perception of Rivian could be getting damaged.

They will get it sorted, Tesla was delivering vehicles for 4 years when I bought mine and the first 3 years service was still a nightmare. Not so bad now.

It is a tough balance to build out the service in the early days because of the expense with so few cars delivered. Tesla did not get theirs sorted until Model 3s were being delivered.

 

[Carscott]

Rivian has quite a bit of cash and its backers have deep pockets.

Doesn't Amazon have more into Rivian than VW? I see these investments as further proof that rivian will remain for the long-term. These companies will want a return on their investments.

In the absolute worst case scenario, and I don't see this happening, but I think Rivian has built enough of a reputation and a brand that they would be acquired by another OEM.

As far as the near term though rivian has enough cash at this point I believe to get to R2 ramp which is what rivian really needs that mass-market vehicle. That's what made Tesla take off....and silenced all the noise that Tesla was going backrupt.

Tesla had very different financial times. Very low interest rates and everyone was enjoying nearly free money. Now even Tesla is suffering as people stop buying 70 to 100 K vehicles when it’s 5 or 7%

 

[strykerwsu]

I have 2. Go big or go home.

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