Midnight train to Georgia derailed? Article: "Georgia demands Rivian secure, maintain factory site"

[AllInev]

https://www.ajc.com/news/business/r...mid-state-demands/ZQTCOQ6WMVB3PJLQVAVDF5JBSM/

Did Georgia politicians make a mistake? I don’t think so, but what do you think?

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[Autolycus]

So I guess security and runoff management weren't as big of a concern if construction was going full speed ahead but now the state is concerned about it if construction is paused? Seems kind of silly, but whatever. It should be a concern no matter what's happening on site.

I know the Biden administration is very pro labor and has tended to only give those extremely favorable EV-factory loans/grants to union shops, but the administration could really help out US manufacturing if they'd throw some financial support into Rivian's Georgia plant.

 

[ThatOneGuy]

So I guess security and runoff management weren't as big of a concern if construction was going full speed ahead but now the state is concerned about it if construction is paused? Seems kind of silly, but whatever. It should be a concern no matter what's happening on site.

I know the Biden administration is very pro labor and has tended to only give those extremely favorable EV-factory loans/grants to union shops, but the administration could really help out US manufacturing if they'd throw some financial support into Rivian's Georgia plant.

Full disclaimer: I have not read the article.

While I agree with your latter points about financial support to expand manufacturing, I'd add to the former that I think the state's concerns (as you've described them) are valid in the context of paused construction. Clearing a lot of forest and then leaving it to sit will definitely create significant runoff problems as a result of erosion. This isn't an urgent concern when construction is ongoing because water management solutions will readily take shape as progress is made, but no progress means non-existent/inadequate water management. The same goes for security - trouble makers love to go to open spaces like this and fool around, especially if it's known that plans are on hold indefinitely and no one is coming around.

 

[moosetags]

I fully realize that I know nothing about such matters, but I will provide my opinion anyway. As musch trouble as the local folks gave Rivian about building the Georgia Plant, they should just sell the land and expand the Normal Plant as necessary.

Brian

 

[thrill]

I fully realize that I know nothing about such matters, but I will provide my opinion anyway. As musch trouble as the local folks gave Rivian about building the Georgia Plant, they should just sell the land and expand the Normal Plant as necessary.

Brian

I agree with you about the NIMBY attitude of Georgians (or as Wikipedia says they are unofficially called, the Goober-Grabers), but from a corporate risk reduction perspective it's important that Rivian not tie themselves too much to any one state with its facile politics.

 

[Autolycus]

The Georgia plant offers a number of benefits that don't exist in Normal. Significant tax incentives is one of those. Another is the relative proximity to major east coast ports (Savannah, Brunswick, Charleston, and Jacksonville). It also makes sense to not tie everything to a single labor market.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Georgia and the Counties should be sensitive to Rivian's situation since these delays can almost certainly be attributed directly to the local residents.

If they are now dealing with the ill effects of their efforts, then I'd simply say "play stupid games, win stupid prizes."

 

[Eric9610]

100% Rivian completely pulls out of Georgia.

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

100% Rivian completely pulls out of Georgia.

If they can navigate endless breach-related lawsuits, absolutely agree.

 

[Autolycus]

Georgia and the Counties should be sensitive to Rivian's situation since these delays can almost certainly be attributed directly to the local residents.

If they are now dealing with the ill effects of their efforts, then I'd simply say "play stupid games, win stupid prizes."

Interesting thought. Would Rivian have paused the factory build if it hadn’t been delayed nearly a year by local NIMBYs, or was Rivian actually ok-ish with the delays because of their cash situation? I would guess the former, but I’m not 100% of it.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Interesting thought. Would Rivian have paused the factory build if it hadn’t been delayed nearly a year by local NIMBYs, or was Rivian actually ok-ish with the delays because of their cash situation? I would guess the former, but I’m not 100% of it.

I'm of the mind that the cash situation was a direct result of the delays. I think when they made the decisions to move forward on the new facility to build R2 they had a plan that required them to walk a tight rope timeline based on the runway they got from IPO and their anticipated burn rate. That tight rope didn't account for a one year delay to get to production of R2, and they had to call an audible after looking at their cash on hand and the new estimates for first production runs of R2 in Georgia.

I'm not as sure that they are abandoning Georgia as some others, but I do think if they had a time machine there would be a partially built factory outside Fort Worth right now with R2 on track for 2025 release.

 

[Autolycus]

Original plan was to open GA in late 2025? If so, I think you’re right that the NIMBY delays may have directly caused the need to pivot.

Unfortunately, if Rivian were to fail or to pull out of GA, the NIMBYs would scream that they were right all along, without any recognition that they contributed to it like Laius sending away his son ultimately led to him being killed by his son, Oedipus.

I’m also still a believer in the GA project. I think it was the right site when the decision was made, and it’s still the right site today. Sunk cost fallacy is dangerous, but Rivian can’t ignore the clawbacks they would owe and the other additional costs it would take to start from scratch somewhere else. The flip side of sunk cost fallacy is to throw out the existing progress and what made them choose the site in the first place just out of frustration, which would also be stupid. At the scale they want to make cars — and need to for their business model — they can’t leave all their eggs in the Normal basket. They have to diversify manufacturing. They also have to diversify their market by selling in Europe. Shipping cars to Europe from Georgia is easier than from Illinois.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Original plan was to open GA in late 2025? If so, I think you’re right that the NIMBY delays may have directly caused the need to pivot.

Unfortunately, if Rivian were to fail or to pull out of GA, the NIMBYs would scream that they were right all along, without any recognition that they contributed to it like Laius sending away his son ultimately led to him being killed by his son, Oedipus.

I’m also still a believer in the GA project. I think it was the right site when the decision was made, and it’s still the right site today. Sunk cost fallacy is dangerous, but Rivian can’t ignore the clawbacks they would owe and the other additional costs it would take to start from scratch somewhere else. The flip side of sunk cost fallacy is to throw out the existing progress and what made them choose the site in the first place just out of frustration, which would also be stupid. At the scale they want to make cars — and need to for their business model — they can’t leave all their eggs in the Normal basket. They have to diversify manufacturing. They also have to diversify their market by selling in Europe. Shipping cars to Europe from Georgia is easier than from Illinois.

Yeah I think access to Savannah and Charleston was the primary driver for the Georgia site instead of the others, and geography hasn't changed if they want an easy route getting cars to Europe. The R3 is clearly targeted to that audience so it makes sense for that vehicle to be tied to the Georgia factory still.

The one variable would be if they decided to go the Tesla route and do local manufacturing for the Euro market, which would limit the value of the Georgia site over other locations.

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