Help me stay bullish

[EVTrukHog]

IMO Rivian is a stock that no one should expect anything from for 10+ years. If they survive the next 2-4 years and can get the R2/ R3 to market I think they will be close to the mountaintop.

This is the only way to remain bullish... if you are expecting any positive stock price growth in less than 5 years you should have an exit strategy ready to deploy at the earliest opportunity. If you're trying to make money now, there are much more attractive opportunities. Rivian has to be a long term play to make any sense - and this outlook will relieve you of the quarterly financial gossip and winds of Wall Street in the meantime.

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[fyton2v]

The title of my post wasn't the best. There is a lot to feel positive about in the long run, and I see myself having some position until they make it or bust. I'm kinda interested in the next 3 months, however. In Q4 of last year, there were quite a few posts where Rivian reps were pressuring people to take delivery before the end of the quarter. In hindsight, that was supposed to be a sign they were at risk of missing their target. Here we are near the end of Q1, and while I don't think I've seen similar stories, there must be 500+ RITs parked at the factory. I'm just thinking they may hit their production target but be off again on deliveries.

 

[ThatOneGuy]

My guess is that they'll lean hard into the R2 & R3 unveiling, the massive positive public reception of both, and the (presumably) large amount of R2 reservations that they have received as a result. They may also announce, or have already announced, a refresh of the R1 lines to boost demand and simultaneously outline how doing so will result in large cost savings (lower production costs). Lastly, I expect them to outline their plan for starting and scaling R2 production and reiterate that they have plenty of money to do so. I think their biggest goal will be to calm fears that 1) demand is weak for the R1T/S and 2) that they won't have enough money to launch R2.

 

[Abilor]

If you're trying to make money now, there are much more attractive opportunities.

Such as?

 

[Dirtman16]

The title of my post wasn't the best. There is a lot to feel positive about in the long run, and I see myself having some position until they make it or bust. I'm kinda interested in the next 3 months, however. In Q4 of last year, there were quite a few posts where Rivian reps were pressuring people to take delivery before the end of the quarter. In hindsight, that was supposed to be a sign they were at risk of missing their target. Here we are near the end of Q1, and while I don't think I've seen similar stories, there must be 500+ RITs parked at the factory. I'm just thinking they may hit their production target but be off again on deliveries.

As others have said, the next couple of quarters could be pretty rough. I'm really interested to see Q3 numbers (which won't be out until maybe late October?). That will be a full quarter with the revamped line for the R1 products, and it will be a good check in point to see how the pivot to R2 production in Normal is going. I'm hopeful the cost of production for R1 will be substantially shaved and that R2 is still on track for early 2026 production.

 

[Abilor]

The title of my post wasn't the best. There is a lot to feel positive about in the long run, and I see myself having some position until they make it or bust. I'm kinda interested in the next 3 months, however. In Q4 of last year, there were quite a few posts where Rivian reps were pressuring people to take delivery before the end of the quarter. In hindsight, that was supposed to be a sign they were at risk of missing their target. Here we are near the end of Q1, and while I don't think I've seen similar stories, there must be 500+ RITs parked at the factory. I'm just thinking they may hit their production target but be off again on deliveries.

It's funny, I actually came here to start this very thread. I've been lusting for a Rivian R1T for a year, on and off, and I was waiting to see the R2 unveiling with excitement. The unveiling itself though, along with R3/X, absolutely floored me. I've been tuning engines since 2008, mostly Japanese and German stuff, and I'm always on the hunt for performance. A car like the R2 with its offering at $45,000 will break the car market IMO; it's soooo much of package for that price point. Thinking about the charging infrastructure that will continue to develop over next 2 years, and DC Fast Charging really catching on, I feel it in my bones that Rivian is going to emerge as the major player by 2030. People hate Elon, Teslas have such poor quality, and as the owner of an Ioniq 5, it's great, but it's still an appliance car. R2 understands the "sport" consumer with modest disposable income in my view. I was and am pretty stoked for the Dodge Banshee, but when you look at the Dodge EV, with terrible buttons all over the steering wheel and a design that still feels trapped in the aughties... not good.

Anyway, late to the party, I've been hoovering up RIVN stock at any chance I can get. I'm holding 35 shares now, and I aim to crawl up to a 1,000 shares over the next year or two assuming the stock holds constant. RIVN makes my balls tingle the way Netflix did back in 2002: I begged my Dad to invest when I first heard they were going to a streaming model, and he poo-pooed the whole idea just like he does EVs now. Not looking for a five year win; looking to be positioned when things go apeshit in 2030 - 2040, closer to my own retirement. I have an IRA I stack with index funds, and a pension I'm brewing; the RIVN stuff is in my Robinhood fun money account.

Anyone think I'm nuts to keep buying it up, around $125 - 150 every week, week in and week out for the foreseeable future? Still bulking up the IRA to the max limits with retirement index funds and tech blue chip mutual funds.

 

[bdwalters]

I loved my R1s. It is an amazing piece of engineering. That said, an amazing product doesn’t necessarily make for a good company, and even a great company doesn’t make for a good stock price. I think sometimes people don’t get that. I’m cheering for Rivian, and I hope to own one again soon, but my investment dollars are going elsewhere. I recommend an S&P500 index fund. As big companies start realizing efficiencies from implementing AI, I suspect it will help grow earnings.

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

For those with a Day-Trader mentality, which is how I paid for my entire R1T puchase via Tesla, NIO and a few other EV entities, then RIVN will surely disappoint. The EV day-trading roller coaster, was basically toss money at anything and with some fair timing, it gave a quick return.

I'm like Red October with my IPO RIVN (at the bottom of the sea bed) and have purchased again on big dips to cost average and will again, when/if it hits $9.50. This is a long term play, as others have stated. I too have Rivian preferential bias, as we are all in on Rivian's entire lineup and put our name in the hat for the R2 as well. I love the idea of the company and love my R1T and my wife loves her R1S.

Will they generate enough capital withour diluting the stock valuation to get the R2 into volume production? IDK......but I do really appreciate the effort they are making to make this all work. Too many factors to predict anything, but it's fun to watch.

 

[EVTrukHog]

If you're trying to make money now, there are much more attractive opportunities.

Such as?

...well you can get a 6% CD at your neighborhood bank right now and not worry about any of this. LOL.

 

[Abilor]

...well you can get a 6% CD at your neighborhood bank right now and not worry about any of this. LOL.

You're not wrong...

 

[solaskaze]

Not a call to action, but some observations:
1) TSLA and RIVN (probably all EVs, only checked these) 2) have a correlation coefficient of almost 0.9. That is to say: as soon as Rivian announcing they are saving $2 BILLION dollars , have R2, R3 ... the market completely forgets that in just a few days (and RIVN and TSLA start tracking again)
2) There is huge amount of evidence of illegal direct market manipulation (for TSLA) ... which means RIVN would suffer as well. Warning: short term retail players.
3) The current price (as it has been) trades close to book value -- as others have stated here, a big swing up probably won't happen until they demonstrate R2 is built with profit (should be very, very popular at a lower price)

 

[evguy]

I don't know how long the RCV pilot projects with AT&T (and others??) take, but announcing an actual purchase commitment from one of those players would be a nice catalyst for the stock. They need some good demand news, even if it's not R1 related.

 

[Tahoe Man]

This is my first post on RivianForums. Not a troll. I have stock (underwater, unfortunately, and I've been long for quite a while), I've reserved the R2, and I'm looking at buying an R1T, which is why I joined this forum.

I'm curious how people are imagining Rivian's Q1 earnings report will go? Since I'm in the market for the R1T, I was browsing their available vehicles on the web. It felt like A LOT of unsold R1T units --so I started counting. The page was still scrolling, but I stopped counting at 400. Here we are at the end of March and they apparently have many amazing trucks sitting unsold in Normal. What's the thinking for how this will affect their Q1 projections? Also, their CAO just sold 31K shares. If I'm being honest, all that inventory near the end of this quarter, plus an accounting leader selling stock, doesn't instill a ton of confidence that they'll have a positive report.

Thoughts?

The title of your post says it all, you want to be bullish and want to be convinced to be bullish, that's a terrible reason to invest. Then to top it off, you're asking a Rivian fan group, so of course just about everyone here will tell you to buy, they've been saying that since the top.

 

[ksurfier]

Forgive my crude analysis, I'm no expert in stocks, that's for sure:

I get a fair market value of RIVN stock between $15 to $26 per share depending how fast they can ramp production, the stock price essentially correlating $1 to 1,000 vehicles sold per quarter.

Current share price weakness can be attributed to the poor earnings and potential demand slowdown as well as the company not hitting net profitability yet. Cash is a big concern so it's expected they will raise capital at some point (diluting shares most likely).

I see $20 a share as a solid target over the next 6-12 months, and then $25 a share in 2025-2026.

In the shorter term, fluctuation near $10 a share is likely, overall market forces could obviously drive it below $10 but it will likely bounce back working it's way to $16 and up ra

Short interest peaked in Jan-Feb timeframe with ~3-4 days to cover, more recently it's below 2 days to cover (likely because of the R2 reveal).

Suspect that day/hour traders love this stock due to volatility and shortability...

My analysis below:

Crystal Ball:

Share Price	Year
$ 30.00	2025
$ 50.00	2027
$ 75.00	2030
$ 100.00	2034

 

[Rividiculous]

Question: What are some examples of companies that have gone bankrupt notwithstanding having truly amazing products and a promising (and real, not Nikola-style) product pipeline?

I am sure there are some. I can’t think of any at the moment though. (It could also be a case of survivor bias. Those companies are now gone so no one remembers their awesome products.) Thoughts?

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