Rivian CEO: We're not worried about Tesla's Cybertruck

[RivianRunner]

Your assessment is pretty rosy considering Tesla announced it in 2019 at $39k/ $49k and current pricing could be almost double that. And the Tesla website can makes claims about towing ”infinite mass” and Musk can tweet about it “functioning as a boat” but they can’t update their “millions” of reservation holders about it’s actual specs?

Your claim that current Cybertruck pricing "could" be almost double the 2019 reveal pricing surprises me. I've not heard that. What is your source? Let's keep it based on actual facts that we do know.

If you are just making that up, based on how much you perceive it will cost Tesla to make Cybertruck, based upon inflation and premium materials and features of Cybertruck, then just admit that it's simply your estimate. But I fail to see how your estimate could reflect poorly on Tesla.

What am I missing here?

As for the claim of towing almost infinite mass, that is an obvious joke. In case you really don't know, it's a parody on Ford engineers setting up the video where the Lightning tows something like 100 freight cars (a train). Tesla engineers were probably watching it on one of their laptops and saying, what a joke! It can pull almost infinite weight, based simply on low they can get the static friction of the bearings. So, yeah, it's just a light-hearted joke of one-upmanship. Don't take it too seriously!

As to the boat thing, yeah, I agree with you there. Elon really got some gullible people to have unrealistic expectations. But you don't have to be too smart to understand the cool realization that grabbed Elon's attention for long enough to say such a thing. When he learned the body would be mostly sealed from water, except for however imperfect the door seals are, and how the weight balance would be balanced fore/aft, and the buoyancy calcs were done, he realized it actually would float like a boat for short distances. While it could be handy in flood situations, Elon took it too far when he said it could function as a boat for short distances. And then some Tesla fans ran with it (and I'm surprised how many took it so seriously). Just dumb!

As to updating reservation holders on the specs, Tesla has already told us the expected specs. No doubt, it's been a work in progress and while I don't expect the specs have changed in a substantial way, no doubt they will not be exactly the same as originally expected. That's not surprising but Tesla will update us in plenty of time for people to make a purchase decision or not. Tesla made a conscious decision to not update us on every little change in specs because I'm sure they have changed multiple times, and it's better to just have the originally announced specs and then the "as released" specs. We should know within a few days to a few weeks. It would have been spastic to update us periodically with every anticipated change in specs. I can imagine some of the specs went back and forth more than once.

I think you will find the reveal specs will not be substantially different from the release specs. They won't be exactly the same either, but the differences will likely not be big enough for people to say, "Oh, I thought the product was going to be suitable for me, now it's not". Probably the change of the biggest magnitude, if it's true, is the change from six seats to five.

But I don't understand your claim that Cybertruck could be almost double the reveal pricing. What source did you use for this claim? My understanding was that Elon said they were keeping the pricing as close as possible to the announced pricing but inflation requires an adjustment.

We haven't had anywhere near 100% inflation since 2019, and prices have come part way down form their covid peak when Elon said that. Why do you think almost double?

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[COdogman]

Your claim that current Cybertruck pricing "could" be almost double the 2019 reveal pricing surprises me. I've not heard that. What is your source? Let's keep it based on actual facts that we do know.

If you are just making that up, based on how much you perceive it will cost Tesla to make Cybertruck, based upon inflation and premium materials and features of Cybertruck, then just admit that it's simply your estimate. But I fail to see how your estimate could reflect poorly on Tesla.

What am I missing here?

As for the claim of towing almost infinite mass, that is an obvious joke. In case you really don't know, it's a parody on Ford engineers setting up the video where the Lightning tows something like 100 freight cars (a train). Tesla engineers were probably watching it on one of their laptops and saying, what a joke! It can pull almost infinite weight, based simply on low they can get the static friction of the bearings. So, yeah, it's just a light-hearted joke of one-upmanship. Don't take it too seriously!

As to the boat thing, yeah, I agree with you there. Elon really got some gullible people to have unrealistic expectations. But you don't have to be too smart to understand the cool realization that grabbed Elon's attention for long enough to say such a thing. When he learned the body would be mostly sealed from water, except for however imperfect the door seals are, and how the weight balance would be balanced fore/aft, and the buoyancy calcs were done, he realized it actually would float like a boat for short distances. While it could be handy in flood situations, Elon took it too far when he said it could function as a boat for short distances. And then some Tesla fans ran with it (and I'm surprised how many took it so seriously). Just dumb!

As to updating reservation holders on the specs, Tesla has already told us the expected specs. No doubt, it's been a work in progress and while I don't expect the specs have changed in a substantial way, no doubt they will not be exactly the same as originally expected. That's not surprising but Tesla will update us in plenty of time for people to make a purchase decision or not. Tesla made a conscious decision to not update us on every little change in specs because I'm sure they have changed multiple times, and it's better to just have the originally announced specs and then the "as released" specs. We should know within a few days to a few weeks. It would have been spastic to update us periodically with every anticipated change in specs. I can imagine some of the specs went back and forth more than once.

I think you will find the reveal specs will not be substantially different from the release specs. They won't be exactly the same either, but the differences will likely not be big enough for people to say, "Oh, I thought the product was going to be suitable for me, now it's not". Probably the change of the biggest magnitude, if it's true, is the change from six seats to five.

But I don't understand your claim that Cybertruck could be almost double the reveal pricing. What source did you use for this claim? My understanding was that Elon said they were keeping the pricing as close as possible to the announced pricing but inflation requires an adjustment.

We haven't had anywhere near 100% inflation since 2019, and prices have come part way down form their covid peak when Elon said that. Why do you think almost double?

What is your source that it will cost less than other EV trucks? I'm simply basing it on the cost of similar things for year 2023. It is a completely different world than it was in 2019.

You are also assuming the price stated in 2019 was doable even then. Elon has a history of lying about the starting prices for his future vehicles. Let's say he deliberately underestimated it by 20-30%. That makes the actual price from 2019 $59k-$70k (2019) instead of $49k (2019). And it likely makes today's price another 20-30% higher since that time since that is approximately the increase seen from other manufacturers during that time. Tesla is powerful, but they cannot reverse the rotation of the earth. Materials and labor cost what they cost. Yours is no less of an estimate than mine is because you cannot trust the 2019 "price" either.

Can you share with us the specs that Tesla has updated you on? If deliveries are imminent why is this still a mystery to the majority of the world? You should know what the official prices and specs are *IF* they are that close. I'm not talking about "expected" specs or prices. No one knows the dimensions or range or safety ratings or anything else about this truck. Yet Tesla fans are acting like that is just great. It's bizarro world.

If the CT page on the Tesla website is a joke, then everything else they have said about it should also be viewed the same way. Why would you take any of it seriously?

 

[Zoidz]

Your claim that current Cybertruck pricing "could" be almost double the 2019 reveal pricing surprises me. I've not heard that. What is your source? Let's keep it based on actual facts that we do know.

If you are just making that up, based on how much you perceive it will cost Tesla to make Cybertruck, based upon inflation and premium materials and features of Cybertruck, then just admit that it's simply your estimate. But I fail to see how your estimate could reflect poorly on Tesla.

What am I missing here?
…
I think you will find the reveal specs will not be substantially different from the release specs.

Here is what you are missing - straight from Musk. I’m not sure how it could be any clearer short of an actual price. They have not announced the revised price for a reason - they don’t want to stifle pre-release hype.

Originally, price was a major talking point for CEO Elon Musk, who said it would start at $39,900. That price point is important for prospective — and highly practical — blue-collar buyers, who are not necessarily Tesla fanatics and who might be tempted to switch to an electric pickup if it’s affordable.

But Musk backed away from this in May at the Annual Shareholder meeting, saying “It's going to be hard to make [it] affordable because it is a new car, a new manufacturing method.”

 

[Foobar]

70% of Rivian buyers come from non-EV backgrounds.

The point is that Rivian helps to remove ICE cars. What percentage of CT buyers will be of non-EV backgrounds? My bet is little

Not trying to be an ass, genuinely curious - how many Rivian buyers come from non-EV Trucks? That’s what we need to be making a dent in.

I’m completely content with my R1T as a truck except in one use-case: towing for anything other than around town.

 

[Dark-Fx]

If the CT page on the Tesla website is a joke, then everything else they have said about it should also be viewed the same way. Why would you take any of it seriously?

Well, no-one should take the CT seriously either.

 

[DuoRivians]

Not trying to be an ass, genuinely curious - how many Rivian buyers come from non-EV Trucks? That’s what we need to be making a dent in.

I’m completely content with my R1T as a truck except in one use-case: towing for anything other than around town.

All that really matters is how many ICE cars are removed. Especially when compared to the CT.

We know that 70% of Rivian buyers are previous ICE owners. Will 70% of CT buyers be previous ICE owners? Doubt it, likely much less, ie previous Tesla people

 

[Foobar]

All that really matters is how many ICE cars are removed. Especially when compared to the CT.

We know that 70% of Rivian buyers are previous ICE owners. Will 70% of CT buyers be previous ICE owners? Doubt it, likely much less, ie previous Tesla people

I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

 

[RivianRunner]

Here is what you are missing - straight from Musk. I’m not sure how it could be any clearer short of an actual price. They have not announced the revised price for a reason - they don’t want to stifle pre-release hype.

Originally, price was a major talking point for CEO Elon Musk, who said it would start at $39,900. That price point is important for prospective — and highly practical — blue-collar buyers, who are not necessarily Tesla fanatics and who might be tempted to switch to an electric pickup if it’s affordable.

But Musk backed away from this in May at the Annual Shareholder meeting, saying “It's going to be hard to make [it] affordable because it is a new car, a new manufacturing method.”

Maybe as an engineer, you can understand he was not saying it could not be made affordable, he was saying it's a hard job. It requires a lot of good engineering, both on the vehicle and especially on the production equipment that will make it, to make it affordable. Not that it couldn't be made affordable. Read the type in bold above again, and I think you will see what I mean.

Some of the Cybertruck specs and features have improved since the reveal (the reveal Cybertruck did not have computer controlled four-wheel steering). That's a big upgrade that makes the truck more maneuverable in tight areas and more stable towing on the highway. So I do think the release price will be a bit higher than anticipated during the reveal.

It's also important to know that the announced entry-level price of $39,990 was for a base model with a single motor and RWD which was not the most popular trim level reserved, so it's unlikely to be one of the initial release trim levels. Tesla will start with one or two trims that are not the entry level RWD model with only mid-200 miles of range.

The best-selling model will be an AWD model with over 300 miles of EPA range and it wouldn't surprise me if the initial production adds a tri or quad motor with over 400 miles of range. We will find out soon enough. If I had to guess, I would say one model to start with, an AWD model with 350-450 miles of range for $79,995 or less. Considering all the included value like four-wheel steering, fully adjustable suspension, motorized tonneau cover you can walk on, free autopilot, armor glass, dent and rust resistant body, etc, that would be quite a value considering the rapid inflation we have witnessed since the reveal.

We don't have long to wait, but I think most people will be surprised at how low the prices will be. In my analysis, it's out of the question that any of them will be priced anywhere near the "over $100K" that keeps getting bandied about by people who have no idea what they are talking about.

Within a year or two of initial production, there will be an AWD model with over 300 miles of range for $56K or less.

 

[Zoidz]

Maybe as an engineer, you can understand he was not saying it could not be made affordable, he was saying it's a hard job. It requires a lot of good engineering, both on the vehicle and especially on the production equipment that will make it, to make it affordable. Not that it couldn't be made affordable. Read the type in bold above again, and I think you will see what I mean.

Some of the Cybertruck specs and features have improved since the reveal (the reveal Cybertruck did not have computer controlled four-wheel steering). That's a big upgrade that makes the truck more maneuverable in tight areas and more stable towing on the highway. So I do think the release price will be a bit higher than anticipated during the reveal.

It's also important to know that the announced entry-level price of $39,990 was for a base model with a single motor and RWD which was not the most popular trim level reserved, so it's unlikely to be one of the initial release trim levels. Tesla will start with one or two trims that are not the entry level RWD model with only mid-200 miles of range.

The best-selling model will be an AWD model with over 300 miles of EPA range and it wouldn't surprise me if the initial production adds a tri or quad motor with over 400 miles of range. We will find out soon enough. If I had to guess, I would say one model to start with, an AWD model with 350-450 miles of range for $79,995 or less. Considering all the included value like four-wheel steering, fully adjustable suspension, motorized tonneau cover you can walk on, free autopilot, armor glass, dent and rust resistant body, etc, that would be quite a value considering the rapid inflation we have witnessed since the reveal.

We don't have long to wait, but I think most people will be surprised at how low the prices will be. In my analysis, it's out of the question that any of them will be priced anywhere near the "over $100K" that keeps getting bandied about by people who have no idea what they are talking about.

Within a year or two of initial production, there will be an AWD model with over 300 miles of range for $56K or less.

As an engineer I know that when a product that took 5+ years to bring to market is less than 6 months away from release, and the CEO makes a statement like that, there is no time for fixing cost issues by release. It either sells at a higher price to reduce losses, and attempt to make the target profit, or they sell lower and lose money. It’s clear what Musk said, the industy analysts have echoed the same interpretation. Musk grossly underestimated the production cost and the selling price. HE - not me or anyone else - pinpointed $40k as “affordable” and it’s not going to sell at anywhere near that price.

Unless Musk and others at Tesla are fools, initial CTs will be premium feature packaged and priced above $70k MSRP and perhaps above $85k - because they will be able to get that from tens of thousands of fanboys. That’s close to twice Musk’s original teaser statement of affordable. A year from now, it’s anybody’s guess what the price will be on the “affordable” package and whether that price will be profitable and at target margin. What’s certain is that won’t be $40k and unlikely to be $50k MSRP. With Tesla completely removing specs and pricing from all marketing communications, it’s a fool’s errand to state what specific features will be included at any given price point.

If you think, as you mentioned above, that any full, long term production CTs are shipping with armored glass, you are drinking the Kool-aid. There might be a premium gimmick package with optional armored glass at best. That would save face for Musk.

 

[Underwhirled]

Although some have the resources to pull the trigger. There’s no way in the world I’d purchase a CT (even if I liked it), and deal the CEO dropping the price by 10 to 20K months later. I understand depreciation, but I don’t have the desire or the resources to take huge hits at the whims of Tesla’s business model.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Maybe as an engineer, you can understand he was not saying it could not be made affordable, he was saying it's a hard job. It requires a lot of good engineering, both on the vehicle and especially on the production equipment that will make it, to make it affordable. Not that it couldn't be made affordable. Read the type in bold above again, and I think you will see what I mean.

Although my degree is in an engineering field I have gotten much more into a communications type role and Elon's statement is actually pretty interesting from a PR standpoint. Sometimes you have to look at the combination of things said, and things not said, in order to get the real message. Saying "it's going to be hard to make it affordable because it's a new car and new engineering method" could mean a few different things.

First we have to look at when this was said. If this was said way at the beginning of development it could mean any number of things and you're right, it could mean that we could still expect the cyber truck to come out as affordable. It wasn't said at the beginning of development though, it was said years after prices were announced. These prices started off being really ambitious in terms of their low cost. Since it was said right before new prices and specs were announced it is much more likely what Elon is doing is called setting expectations.

He is getting people ready for a higher price by leading with how difficult of a challenge it has been. Approaching it the way he did is an attempt to get the buyer to empathize with the difficulty of the current market and the enormity of the challenge and to subconsciously be okay with a higher announced price. This is further reinforced with the next factor, which is what has not been said.

The elephant in the room is why has a vehicle that's supposed to ship in days or weeks not had any specs announced or had any reviews done. At this point in the process Elon wants to build as much hype and interest for his truck as possible. There are many ways to do so and the best way is what Rivian did which is showcase its capabilities. Rivian released their truck to reviewers much sooner in the process of customer deliveries and they also did that cross continent trip with them to showcase their off-road prowess.

You have to wonder why, when the cyber truck has already supposed to have started deliveries at this point, no one has a review out there? Why does no one still not know the price? There is only one reason to withhold that information at this juncture and it's because that information isn't favorable to generating hype that Tesla wants before their truck gets delivered. Rivian knew their R1's were great, so they knew that favorable reviews were most likely. This lead Rivian to go the reviewer route. Tesla hasn't done this, and that leads me to believe that the reviews won't be as favorable.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Although some have the resources to pull the trigger. There’s no way in the world I’d purchase a CT (even if I liked it), and deal the CEO dropping the price by 10 to 20K months later. I understand depreciation, but I don’t have the desire or the resources to take huge hits at the whims of Tesla’s business model.

Depending on when you could get one would be the determining factor on this. If you had an ultra early reservation or knew someone at Tesla and got your truck right when they were released you should buy it and flip it for more than you paid for it. That's always a risk, and that window to flip closes pretty quickly. Especially if as the truck gets more widespread reviews come out as unfavorable. Then your pool of buyers will then be reduced simply to Tesla fan boys and those who must have the latest look at me vehicle.

My personal view is a flip on the cybertruck is going to be risky as I don't think it's going to be viewed favorably in the marketplace. I think price wise it's going to be competitive with Rivian but it isn't going to hold up to them performance or usability wise. It won't be seen as the same level of value and the comparison to existing vehicles will be negative.

Any manufacturer with a winner on its hands has reviews out 6 months to a year before deliveries. Rivian did, Chevy is with their new EV truck as well. Lots of videos including from TFL now talking about the range of the new Chevy truck. It's clear that truck has hit its target marks and it was clear from the reviews on the Rivian's that they hit their design marks as well. No cyber truck reviews make it clear that Elon didn't hit his promised marks so that flip window is going to be from the second people start getting trucks until people figure out they are shit. How soon that is really depends on how bad the cyber truck is and that's not a risk I would take unless I was in the first batch of released trucks.

 

[vandy1981]

You have to wonder why, when the cyber truck has already supposed to have started deliveries at this point, no one has a review out there? Why does no one still not know the price?

I agree that it's strange that we don't have more information. We know all the key details about the M3 refresh months before it actually goes on sale and next to nothing concrete about the CT which was supposedly going to debut in Q3.

I can not wait until concrete specs and pricing are released. We've had years of tiresome hype and it's time for Tesla to put up or shut up. I say this as someone who is genuinely enthusiastic about having another strong competitor in the truck space that will spur others to improve their products.

 

[BigE]

At least the price and specs of the max pack are announced.

Oh really. Where is the price of Rivian’s original R1T? The 180 kWh Quad?

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Oh really. Where is the price of Rivian’s original R1T? The 180 kWh Quad?

They definitively announced that change already. It's not ambiguous that configuration isn't being offered is it? Not quite the gotcha you thought it was.

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