Stock price - do people realize Rivian (RIVN) is NOT Tesla (TSLA)??

[kizamybute']

The problem is we're going into a Fed tightening cycle. So essentially you're fighting the Fed. And also in this case, fighting the tape.

The other is this is such a young company and there was so very very much speculation at the ipo and beyond, it's hard to gauge what the real value should be. This thing ipo'd as Tesla was near a trillion... Also this was when many were staying home or working from home and using the stock market as a means having fun.

With the entire market declining, yes, it is related to the Feds. I've never understood why they can't make adjustments GENTLY. I predicted two years ago, if the Feds double rates in a one year period, we'd be screwed. If they went with 1% per year, then people could adjust. Instead, they've more than doubled it to make up for their mistakes and now we all get to suffer the effects of a recession for the next couple of years.

Separately, I don't think it so much has to do with them being a young company though as everyone seems to lump all EV makers into the same portfolio. Tesla declines, so do all the others. Tesla increases, so do all the others. Sadly, Rivian is not being valued on its own merit. Instead, is just being dragged around by the current industry leader.

That's where I made my mistake in investing into this company. I invested into RIVIAN, not TESLA. Unfortunately, we're being impacted by all things Tesla, combined with the downturn in the market in general. As are other EV manufacturers.

I hadn't planned on this being a long term stock, but it's now switched to that. Have over 1,000 shares, so getting eaten alive in the past two weeks. Either just write it off, or wait it out until the next election.

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[Tahoe Man]

We're not sure how RIVN will do once people start losing their jobs and the easy money is gone, this is why it's getting hammered along with all over high growth plays... Also the EV valuations were ridiculous, but investors were playing the momentum trade with them.

I'm trying to catching some shares under $19, but will have to settle with $19.05 I guess...it doesn't look like I'll be able to scalp something for under $19 today. I would imagine shorts will cover soon and tax loss harvesting ends to get a decent bounce, but since the IPO, it's nothing but a downtrend.

 

[NY_Rob]

That's where I made my mistake in investing into this company. I invested into RIVIAN, not TESLA. Unfortunately, we're being impacted by all things Tesla, combined with the downturn in the market in general.

That's been my opinion on Rivian too, because no matter what Rivian does, be it good news (will meet production goals, adds new features), bad news (recalls, canceled partnerships) or no news.. Rivian stock drops. I read here often "the market will like that" after Rivian released some positive news... but look at the stock 2-3 days later, not only did it drop to the pre-good news level... it's tanking down even further. Very frustrating indeed....

 

[Cosmacelf]

This thread is too funny. I'm invested in TSLA and on those forums, they also dump on Elon since the stock price is declining. And I come here, and you guys are doing the same.

The reality is a bit more nuanced.

In the 2007-2009 recession, US auto sales declined something like 33%. That is a HUGE decline. I personally don't think 2023 is going to be like that, but there is a non-zero chance it will be, and if there one thing I know the stock market reacts to is FEAR. On both the downside and upside (Fear Of Missing Out, FOMO).

So ALL auto manufacturers are getting it in the nuts right now due to severe recession fears. If anything, Rivian, Ford, GM should be declining more than Tesla, but that hasn't been the case I think. Tesla is actually getting hammered just as much if not more (and that probably IS due to Elon being Elon).

Why should Tesla's decline be less? Because they have a huge order backlog, zero debt, and huge positive gross margins. Tesla is the only auto company with all three of these. It will allow Tesla to drop prices next year if auto sales do indeed drop 33% to maintain volumes. Won't do their profit much good, but it'll destroy the competition.

Rivian won't be able to drop prices since it doesn't have huge positive gross margins. But at least Rivian has a huge order backlog so they may weather the storm.

Traditional auto could drop prices to some degree (their margins aren't quite as good as Tesla, but they are good enough), but they have a large amount of debt and rising interest rates are hurting them. They also don't have a huge order backlog.

Now, if a bad recession doesn't come to pass, then stock prices will rebound quite nicely, but that isn't where the market's head is at right now.

Bottom line, don't sell, but also don't buy until recession fears recede.

 

[Count Orlok]

at least my F paid me a dividend.

 

[Cosmacelf]

at least my F paid me a dividend.

Until they suspend it. They only started paying the dividend again sometime last year I believe.

 

[solaskaze]

At this point, RIVN is trading close to its book value. Weird place to be, since, as a car company, they are either destined to continue (better ratio), or fold up (bet: burn through all that cash). There really isn't a middle ground as market fluidity/the ability to shift product target is next to nil.

 

[Tahoe Man]

At this point, RIVN is trading close to its book value. Weird place to be, since, as a car company, they are either destined to continue (better ratio), or fold up (bet: burn through all that cash). There really isn't a middle ground as market fluidity/the ability to shift product target is next to nil.

I'm betting the cash gets burned up. At least tell me why it wouldn't....There is a lot of risk, the unemployment numbers need to go up on a large scale for the fed to start backing off. I'm betting with the fed funds futures that a loosening doesn't happen until 2024.
Does Rivn have any bonds?

 

[jjswan33]

I'm betting the cash gets burned up. At least tell me why it wouldn't....There is a lot of risk, the unemployment numbers need to go up on a large scale for the fed to start backing off. I'm betting with the fed funds futures that a loosening doesn't happen until 2024.
Does Rivn have any bonds?

I agree with @solaskaze - with them trading at these levels its priced as the market expects it to fail.

 

[Dark-Fx]

This thread is too funny. I'm invested in TSLA and on those forums, they also dump on Elon since the stock price is declining. And I come here, and you guys are doing the same.

The reality is a bit more nuanced.

In the 2007-2009 recession, US auto sales declined something like 33%. That is a HUGE decline. I personally don't think 2023 is going to be like that, but there is a non-zero chance it will be, and if there one thing I know the stock market reacts to is FEAR. On both the downside and upside (Fear Of Missing Out, FOMO).

So ALL auto manufacturers are getting it in the nuts right now due to severe recession fears. If anything, Rivian, Ford, GM should be declining more than Tesla, but that hasn't been the case I think. Tesla is actually getting hammered just as much if not more (and that probably IS due to Elon being Elon).

Why should Tesla's decline be less? Because they have a huge order backlog, zero debt, and huge positive gross margins. Tesla is the only auto company with all three of these. It will allow Tesla to drop prices next year if auto sales do indeed drop 33% to maintain volumes. Won't do their profit much good, but it'll destroy the competition.

Rivian won't be able to drop prices since it doesn't have huge positive gross margins. But at least Rivian has a huge order backlog so they may weather the storm.

Traditional auto could drop prices to some degree (their margins aren't quite as good as Tesla, but they are good enough), but they have a large amount of debt and rising interest rates are hurting them. They also don't have a huge order backlog.

Now, if a bad recession doesn't come to pass, then stock prices will rebound quite nicely, but that isn't where the market's head is at right now.

Bottom line, don't sell, but also don't buy until recession fears recede.

There were a huge amount of investors that believed Tesla was the only company that could be successful at EVs. That drove a lot of the upside of the stock. It's becoming obvious in the market that Tesla doesn't have some secret sauce for EV production, and the majority of people buying EVs as purely a commuting vehicle is pretty high, so the supercharging network doesn't really matter for that portion of the market.

 

[Cosmacelf]

There were a huge amount of investors that believed Tesla was the only company that could be successful at EVs. That drove a lot of the upside of the stock. It's becoming obvious in the market that Tesla doesn't have some secret sauce for EV production, and the majority of people buying EVs as purely a commuting vehicle is pretty high, so the supercharging network doesn't really matter for that portion of the market.

That is a common perception, yes. However Tesla still to this day does maintain a lead in making high volume EVs with industry leading margins. They also outsell everyone else by a wide margin (except in China).

But the competition really isn't other EVs, that's a false narrative. Tesla, Rivian, even Ford with their Lightning, are really competing against ICE vehicles. You'd think that maybe Rivian and Ford are competing against each other in the pickup truck segment, but they both have such large backlogs that the reality is they are cannibalizing ICE truck sales.

 

[SANZC02]

This thread is too funny. I'm invested in TSLA and on those forums, they also dump on Elon since the stock price is declining. And I come here, and you guys are doing the same.

The reality is a bit more nuanced.

In the 2007-2009 recession, US auto sales declined something like 33%. That is a HUGE decline. I personally don't think 2023 is going to be like that, but there is a non-zero chance it will be, and if there one thing I know the stock market reacts to is FEAR. On both the downside and upside (Fear Of Missing Out, FOMO).

So ALL auto manufacturers are getting it in the nuts right now due to severe recession fears. If anything, Rivian, Ford, GM should be declining more than Tesla, but that hasn't been the case I think. Tesla is actually getting hammered just as much if not more (and that probably IS due to Elon being Elon).

Why should Tesla's decline be less? Because they have a huge order backlog, zero debt, and huge positive gross margins. Tesla is the only auto company with all three of these. It will allow Tesla to drop prices next year if auto sales do indeed drop 33% to maintain volumes. Won't do their profit much good, but it'll destroy the competition.

Rivian won't be able to drop prices since it doesn't have huge positive gross margins. But at least Rivian has a huge order backlog so they may weather the storm.

Traditional auto could drop prices to some degree (their margins aren't quite as good as Tesla, but they are good enough), but they have a large amount of debt and rising interest rates are hurting them. They also don't have a huge order backlog.

Now, if a bad recession doesn't come to pass, then stock prices will rebound quite nicely, but that isn't where the market's head is at right now.

Bottom line, don't sell, but also don't buy until recession fears recede.

Actually they have 1 of the three, their profit per vehicle is still very high.

This is the first time they actually have more vehicles than orders. The recent discount is to match the federal tax incentive that people are waiting for that starts in 2023 for Tesla models 3 and Y. They do not want to sit on The thousands of vehicles that they currently have in stock through the quarter. Their debt in 2022 is 2.6 billion, not a ton of debt based on their sales but still not trivial.

 

[Dark-Fx]

But the competition really isn't other EVs, that's a false narrative. Tesla, Rivian, even Ford with their Lightning, are really competing against ICE vehicles.

Oh I absolutely disagree with you there. EV availability as a whole is competing with ICEs. Tesla is not.

 

[Scoiatael]

IMHO Rivian screwed up focusing on the truck and not the S given how SUVs dominate the U.S. market .

If Rivian released the R1S first, is be driving a Ford Lightning right now. Rivian beat Ford to delivery by 1 week. This would be the case for a lot of other people too. Being the first EV truck was more important. R1T also had more reservations than R1S.

 

[SANZC02]

…. R1T also had more reservations than R1S.

Can you point to where you got this information? I’ve been looking for it for months and cannot find a breakdown between the R1S and R1T preorders anywhere.

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