Info From RJ's Fireside Chat on June 2nd (w/ mention of LFP batteries)

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I cannot believe $40-60 in three years time. Inflation alone would easily turn $40k into $46k. I cannot see how you strip that much cost out when the base R1S with the same dual motor and battery pack will easily be more than the current $72.5k. Take away a foot of metal, the glass roof and a few other items (air suspension maybe)!does not save $30k. I expect a base price of $60k going upto $80k for the R2S.

There will likely be a small crossover with a single motor offer, essentially the Rivian version of the M3 offered on the R2 line. Nothing official yet on exactly what/how many R2 models there will be but I expect at least 2-3 and potentially as many as 5.

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[EVTrucking]

Something stinks about Rivian projections

What?

Nothing stinks about Rivian’s projections which is my point! They clearly consistently communicate that IF they had the parts they could build at least 2x-3x the number of trucks.

I don’t blame Rivian for that! Parts supply is mostly out of their control.

As I stated earlier in this post I think Rivian is doing an admirable job under there current global mess.

 

[hiimisaac]

I believe that this means any R1 with the small battery pack. LFP isn't as dense as the nickel packs, so they can use the space set aside for the Max Pack for the LFP battery. Large & (of course) max pack will continue to need to use the current battery tech.

Hopefully they have some plan in place to deal with the stable voltage of the LFP pack, since it has caused some issues for Tesla (for example, they would prefer if you charged up to 100% all the time, so the BMS can more accurately predict the actual battery level).

It's generally okay to charge to 100% for LFP. They do not degrade at such a high charge percentage the same as NMC.

 

[Max]

What?

Nothing stinks about Rivian’s projections which is my point! They clearly consistently communicate that IF they had the parts they could build at least 2x-3x the number of trucks.

I don’t blame Rivian for that! Parts supply is mostly out of their control.

As I stated earlier in this post I think Rivian is doing an admirable job under there current global mess.

I was just looking for an excuse to post the video. I find Omid Djalili really funny. I think Rivian does share what they hope to accomplish.

 

[EVTrucking]

I was just looking for an excuse to post the video. I find Omid Djalili really funny. I think Rivian does share what they hope to accomplish.

The video was entertaining!

 

[Guy]

There will likely be a small crossover with a single motor offer, essentially the Rivian version of the M3 offered on the R2 line. Nothing official yet on exactly what/how many R2 models there will be but I expect at least 2-3 and potentially as many as 5.

I wondered about a is glow motor but I could see Rivian being like Subaru and offering only AWD models. Given the dual motor Mach-E and ID4 models are at least $45k I just don’t see Rivian down at this prices. As for comparisons with the Bolt that is a much smaller and less luxurious vehicle and not a space Rivian is competing in.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

I don’t see how the dual Motor small battery vehicles ship next year when there will be well over 60k of quad motor vehicles to get through before they even start on the base models. Maybe they expect to make more than 60k next year.

Stop using logic. By that rationale, every LE edition with priority delivery would be delivered before they started sending out any other models. We all know how that’s working…

I’ve got my popcorn ready for when they start shipping out dual motor small packs when there’s still LE reservation holders waiting

 

[hiimisaac]

Stop using logic. By that rationale, every LE edition with priority delivery would be delivered before they started sending out any other models. We all know how that’s working…

I’ve got my popcorn ready for when they start shipping out dual motor small packs when there’s still LE reservation holders waiting

If LFP is shipping, Dual Motor (which is Enduro motor, as they've stated) is also shipping. Wouldn't surprise me to be able to construct dual/quad on the same line if they're using the same drivetrain just with the different number. This will all be assembled long before it gets to general assembly. And if they're batching, makes it "easier". And skateboard platforms make battery swapping easy. I think Tesla said it takes them 8 minutes to swap batteries? So, it's not that outlandish.

 

[hiimisaac]

I wondered about a is glow motor but I could see Rivian being like Subaru and offering only AWD models. Given the dual motor Mach-E and ID4 models are at least $45k I just don’t see Rivian down at this prices. As for comparisons with the Bolt that is a much smaller and less luxurious vehicle and not a space Rivian is competing in.

In-house designed motors allow savings by controlling every aspect of integration. Vertical integration has more benefits than just control over ECUs and the like.

 

[Marjen]

It makes a lot of sense. The packs are significantly less expensive to make and will have a lot of advantages for both Rivian and the customer.

isnt a big draw back that they perform poorly in cold weather?if so huge minus for the northeast.

 

[hiimisaac]

isnt a big draw back that they perform poorly in cold weather?if so huge minus for the northeast.

Their performance isn't *great* for cold weather. But it's just like the NMC battery -- after it gets up to temp, it'll be a normal LFP battery. So, preconditioning does wonders. And thankfully, Rivian has implemented preconditioning while routing to DCFCs.

Additionally, from Bjorn's test while testing Tesla's LFP pack in cold here's what he found:

According to Bjørn Nyland, he measured the average efficiency over a substantial distance of 62 km at a constant speed of 90 km/h (56 mph), and then similarly at a higher speed of 120 km/h (75 mph).

==DRIVING==
At 90 km/h, the energy consumption increased by about 29% compared to the Summer test, reaching 152 Wh/km (245 Wh/mile), which translated to an estimated range of 346 km (215 miles) - about 22% lower than in the Summer.


At 120 km/h, energy consumption increased by 20% compared to the Summer test - 202 Wh/km (325 Wh/mile), while range is estimated at 263 km (163 miles) - 16% less than in the Summer.

==CHARGING==
The later test at 8% SOC with 25°C battery temperature resulted in charging power of 111 kW (and it dropped to 90 kW after a while).

The conclusion is to avoid leaving the cars in the cold, disconnected from a charging point, and if that happens, maybe start conditioning immediately to achieve best performance and fast charging capability.

 

[Dark-Fx]

isnt a big draw back that they perform poorly in cold weather?if so huge minus for the northeast.

Only when they are extremely cold. It's easily avoidable if they are being used daily and plugged in all the time. The biggest problem is not being able to charge them at all if they are sub freezing, but they are fine once warmed up.

 

[SASSquatch]

UPDATED FOLLOWING FIRESIDE CHAT:

Here are my notes. I don’t think there was very much new information. I was surprised that RJ said that they are currently building four vehicles this year. Apparently, they are building two different sizes of the EDV, both the 500 and 700. I was under the impression that they were only building one version of the EDV this year.

• LFP battery packs will begin shipping for consumer vehicles early next year. That's roughly a year ahead of their 2024 timing on the website! [noted by @hiimisaac]
• They're also incredibly bullish on LFP. I don't think they have any plans to not continue with the smaller, LFP packs as a lot of people have speculated. [noted by @hiimisaac]
• Reiterated that the goal is to have overall market share of 10% of the entire new car market, which is expected to be selling only electric cars by the end of the decade.
• R2 vehicles will be priced from $40k to $60k and is anticipated to begin production in Georgia in 2025.
• Very important to ramp up R2 volume with expansion to Europe and China in the future.
• Normal plant is currently running 30 hours a week. For the second half of the year, this is expected to ramp up dramatically due to better relationships with semiconductor suppliers.
• Normal plant will be expanded to produce up to 200k vehicles a year and will continue to only manufacture R1s and EDVs.
• Base models and commercial EDVs will have a LFP battery pack, which are cheaper than the nickel based batteries. Not sure what base models mean. I assume R1s with dual motors since he said this will happen starting next year for the R1s.

ORIGINAL POST

Link to tomorrow‘s chat at 3:30pm ET.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...’s-38th-Annual-Strategic-Decisions-Conference

I noticed RJ also did a chat with Morgan Stanley last week. Listening to it now.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...Morgan-Stanley-Sustainable-Futures-Conference

@Longhorngirl thank you for taking such detailed notes and sharing with the rest of us who didn't make the chat! Great stuff in here.

I was also surprised to hear that RIVIAN was building two different EDVs. Not surprised to hear about the LFP batteries - they seem to be all the rage.

 

[hiimisaac]

@Longhorngirl thank you for taking such detailed notes and sharing with the rest of us who didn't make the chat! Great stuff in here.

I was also surprised to hear that RIVIAN was building two different EDVs. Not surprised to hear about the LFP batteries - they seem to be all the rage.

They actually have 3. EDV500, EDV700 and EDV900

 

[SANZC02]

GM is already making a 260 mile EV for $30K (Bolt). I have no doubt Koreans and VW are already gunning for sub $30K EVs

It really is only a matter of time. Most manufacturing companies (even Ford and GM) start with higher end models with great performance numbers to recoup the initial development costs. Look at what Tesla did starting with the S and X to show the capability of EVs, then went to the 3 for mass production and to start making a profit.

We are rounding the corner where there are enough different battery, motor, and electronic variations that we will start seeing lower price EVs rivaling ICE configurations in the very near future.

The issue that needs to be solved is the charging infrastructure. There are many people in apartments that would get EVs if they had a way to easily charge them. Many people who cannot charge at home will not be willing to go to public chargers for 30 to 90 minutes once or twice a week. I think the vehicles will be ready before the ability to charge them are. The other issue will be the grid capacity that needs to expand as well. One benefit to the lower priced EVs is they will most likely be smaller and less powerful so will travel much further on a kWh.

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