Sad, but I think I’m out

[RivnSoon]

Keeping the T for as long as I can too. Looked really hard at new and used R1S, we need the 3rd row and wanted electric, but they were just too old in terms of tech to buy and hold for 3 to 5 years. Got a loaded Ioniq 9 lease at an absolute silly rate, will dump it in 3 years. will see where Rivian is then...

Sponsored

 

[Jeremy3292]

Again - this is not quite right. With Rivians you have the right (but not the obligation) to buy out the lease whenever you want. You can just pay the lease term + residual value. If you want to own it you can and you don’t have to return the car in 3 years.

Leasing is effectively a purchase option (at residual value) contract. Even if you want to keep the car it can make financial sense as a downside protection against technological change or any number of other risks.

Depreciation matters because it’s the measure of downside risk. Again - if depreciation far exceeds the residual value then you can just buy the exact same car on the used market and come out ahead. Using the Taycan example - you could have paid two years of lease for $20K + $10k down ($30k total) and now buy the exact same car used for $50-60K vs financing $100-$110K upfront.

Ok, I agree with that but that wasn't what I was trying to get at. You're speaking to an idealized scenario where you use a lease as a holder of risk essentially, which if you're smart can work. However, if you don't buy the lease out at the end or don't buy it on the used market as you said and instead go and lease a new car again, you made a bad financial decision. You're then in the classic perpetual lease cycle bc most people who lease continue to lease in perpetuity. They never own anything. Again this POV is from strictly a financial decision. Not a "this is what I want" or "I want a new car every 3 years" POV. I'm talking dollars and cents only.

 

[ATLRivvy]

Ok, I agree with that but that wasn't what I was trying to get at. You're speaking to an idealized scenario where you use a lease as a holder of risk essentially, which if you're smart can work. However, if you don't buy the lease out at the end or don't buy it on the used market as you said and instead go and lease a new car again, you made a bad financial decision. You're then in the classic perpetual lease cycle bc most people who lease continue to lease in perpetuity. They never own anything. Again this POV is from strictly a financial decision. Not a "this is what I want" or "I want a new car every 3 years" POV. I'm talking dollars and cents only.

Yeah agree with you kind of but in the “in perpetuity” situation that’s a different comparison. That person is making a preference decision to only own new cars, thats not really financially comparable to long-term ownership it’s just kind of a whole different thing.

I’m just talking about the actual apples to apples comparison and why it would make financial sense.

 

[NJRS1New]

I think rivian missed an opportunity here. MF of over 10% on lease is outrageous. Why would you offer it? its already being discussed on social media and lease hackr.

 

[sparked]

I think rivian missed an opportunity here. MF of over 10% on lease is outrageous. Why would you offer it? its already being discussed on social media and lease hackr.

What's the missed opportunity? If Rivian is offering it, it means some people will take the current lease structure at this premium. Everyone else who wants a lease deal can just wait for that to happen eventually.

Rivian isn't trying to bleed money unnecessarily when there is obviously demand in 2026 for R2.

 

[NJRS1New]

What's the missed opportunity? If Rivian is offering it, it means some people will take the current lease structure at this premium. Everyone else who wants a lease deal can just wait for that to happen eventually.

Are you keeping up with any car news in the EV sector? The weight of the R2 on the company demands they have to sell r2 in high volume. These numbers do not reflect that.

Ix3 is already selling out and BMW is increasing production. Ex60 is already has thousands of orders.

 

[sparked]

Are you keeping up with any car news in the EV sector? The weight of the R2 on the company demands they have to sell r2 in high volume. These numbers do not reflect that.

Ix3 is already selling out and BMW is increasing production. Ex60 is already has thousands of orders.

That's a 2027 problem for Rivian when they need to keep production at maximum with sustained high volume production. 2026 is limited production due to a ramp up. Why would Rivian incentivize cars in 2026 with that scenario?

 

[Jeremy3292]

Ix3 is already selling out and BMW is increasing production. Ex60 is already has thousands of orders.

Umm R2 is selling out also? You don't need incentives when you physically can't make more than your sales orders.

Why did chip and RAM prices go to the moon? Demand is high; supply is low. Basic economics.

When they make more then they can sell they'll have incentives. See R1 currently.

 

[richguess]

I think I’ll keep my 2024 Q8 Etron until its warranty is almost out, and then move to an R2, or hopefully a lightly used early lease return BMW iX3. Might be able to get one of those in the $50k range.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

The interest rates from my local credit union are about the same as my HYSA rates so it's kind of a wash for me.

Yeah today’s environment is not a good rate one haha

 

[Who-Dat]

Agree. The 2nd Gen R2 will be out in a bit and will have a much longer life before support drops off, based on Rivian’s m.o.

I AGREE With you... I will Also Wait for G2 R2. I have learn my lesson from owning a FISKER Ocean. I LOVE the car, but it was not ready for Prime Time. I say let RIVIAN R2 owner work out the bugs. It really come down to NEEDS vs WANTS.

 

[NY_Rob]

Again - this is not quite right. With Rivians you have the right (but not the obligation) to buy out the lease whenever you want. You can just pay the lease term + residual value.

Yes, but the residual is determined now in 2026 before the R2 has ever reached customer's hands. If some new battery tech (not the Donut Labs scam SS battery) comes out or their are lots of issues and recalls with the vehicle, low owner satisfaction, or a competitor comes out with a competing vehicle, etc.. all events that would make the 2026 residual amount way above the actual market value for the 3 year old R2 vehicle in 2029. So, yes you have the option to purchase, but it's certainly not something that financially responsible.

 

[NeverFollow]

You don’t have to return a car at the end of the lease, you have the option to buy it out at the agreed-upon residual value. Leasing is basically just an informed bet on that residual value at the end of the lease.

If I don't plan to keep a car and don't want to deal with selling it, I would take a lease with no down payment and one single payment to save on high money factors and interests.

This would cover cars with uncertain depreciation or maintenance cost after the warranty expire.

 

[ATLRivvy]

Yes, but the residual is determined now in 2026 before the R2 has ever reached customer's hands. If some new battery tech (not the Donut Labs scam SS battery) comes out or their are lots of issues and recalls with the vehicle, low owner satisfaction, or a competitor comes out with a competing vehicle, etc.. all events that would make the 2026 residual amount way above the actual market value for the 3 year old R2 vehicle in 2029. So, yes you have the option to purchase, but it's certainly not something that financially responsible.

Yes - that’s my point. It’s an OPTION you are buying. If the problems come out and the residual is way above expected market value then you can return the lease at lease-end and buy an identical used vehicle for below residual value. That’s the option value in leasing for a tech forward product.

And it’s not really theoretical - people like me who bought a Tesla or Mach-E during the pandemic pricing, a Taycan before the generation change, etc. have seen this play out.

Sponsored