What Else Are You Considering?

[DuckTruck]

I saw Elon Musk speak at a Governors conference several years ago. He did some Q&A and one Governor asked him if he thought we’d still have ICE vehicles in 20 years. His response was classic. He said “Well sure. People still have horses. They just aren’t used as a primary mode of transportation anymore.”

I wonder in what year we'll cross the threshold of having the majority of our private vehicle miles in the U.S. provided by EVs? Will it happen by 2035? Maybe 2040? 2050? At some point in the future, someone will address a Governors' Conference and say "Well sure. People still have Teslas. They just aren't used as a primary mode of transportation anymore."

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[godfodder0901]

I wonder in what year we'll cross the threshold of having the majority of our private vehicle miles in the U.S. provided by EVs? Will it happen by 2035? Maybe 2040? 2050? At some point in the future, someone will address a Governors' Conference and say "Well sure. People still have Teslas. They just aren't used as a primary mode of transportation anymore."

We were close once before...

"By 1900, in the United States, 38% of US automobiles, 33,842 cars, were powered by electricity (40% were powered by steam, and 22% by gasoline)."

 

[DuckTruck]

We were close once before...

"By 1900, in the United States, 38% of US automobiles, 33,842 cars, were powered by electricity (40% were powered by steam, and 22% by gasoline)."

Very true! Electricity (battery-powered) was once a very popular mode of propulsion. Jay Leno (on his show, Jay Leno's Garage) talks about the battle between Battery-Electric, Steam, and Gasoline-powered cars in the industry's early days. He asserts that the battery-powered vehicles were the favorite of women, while the noisier, gas-powered cars were the favorite of men, in part because of all of the noise and smoke. It's a fun episode which can be found on YouTube.

The question still stands, when do Forumites here think we will we cross the threshold of 50% of all private vehicle miles being provided by EVs? Ten years? Twenty years? I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts.

 

[Moonjock]

Very true! Electricity (battery-powered) was once a very popular mode of propulsion. Jay Leno (on his show, Jay Leno's Garage) talks about the battle between Battery-Electric, Steam, and Gasoline-powered cars in the industry's early days. He asserts that the battery-powered vehicles were the favorite of women, while the noisier, gas-powered cars were the favorite of men, in part because of all of the noise and smoke. It's a fun episode which can be found on YouTube.

The question still stands, when do Forumites here think we will we cross the threshold of 50% of all private vehicle miles being provided by EVs? Ten years? Twenty years? I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts.

I say 10 plus years. I think it really depends on price and charging infrastructure for most average folks.

 

[SANZC02]

Very true! Electricity (battery-powered) was once a very popular mode of propulsion. Jay Leno (on his show, Jay Leno's Garage) talks about the battle between Battery-Electric, Steam, and Gasoline-powered cars in the industry's early days. He asserts that the battery-powered vehicles were the favorite of women, while the noisier, gas-powered cars were the favorite of men, in part because of all of the noise and smoke. It's a fun episode which can be found on YouTube.

The question still stands, when do Forumites here think we will we cross the threshold of 50% of all private vehicle miles being provided by EVs? Ten years? Twenty years? I'd love to hear everyone's thoughts.

My guess more than 30 years if we are talking globally. There are so many ice vehicles out there and so many places that drive them into the ground for lack of resources to replace them.

if we are talking about the point where we cross the 50/50 line for new sales I think that will happen before the mile threshold but still 15 to 20 years out. CA has a mandate that by 2035 all new passenger vehicles sold will be zero emission. I think it is a lofty goal and not sure it will be attainable. My guess is they may push it out 5 or more years. The infrastructure for electricity here needs to be rebuilt to handle the load where they already have brownouts during major heatwaves just for current electric demands.

It does say zero emission so that does allow for other options like hydrogen but that infrastructure is way behind as well and fewer options in the pipeline.

 

[DucRider]

The infrastructure for electricity here needs to be rebuilt to handle the load where they already have brownouts during major heatwaves just for current electric demands.

As counterintuitive as it seems, more EVs means fewer brownouts and the capability to better manage the grid requiring less peak capacity.

 

[SANZC02]

As counterintuitive as it seems, more EVs means fewer brownouts and the capability to better manage the grid requiring less peak capacity.

Can you better explain your position here? I’m curious what view point I am not seeing.

Managing load is one thing, having the required capacity is yet another. I do agree that for normal use one would probably choose off hours to do their charging but as you increase the number of EVs being used there will be more people that need to add range in peak times by necessity rather than choice which will impact the grid.

 

[DucRider]

Can you better explain your position here? I’m curious what view point I am not seeing.

Managing load is one thing, having the required capacity is yet another. I do agree that for normal use one would probably choose off hours to do their charging but as you increase the number of EVs being used there will be more people that need to add range in peak times by necessity rather than choice which will impact the grid.

I don't see the necessity to charge at peak times. Easy to delay charging until later in the night, or charge during the day for those that have workplace charging.
"Old school" meant peak demand during the day for A/C and business use, but the advent of solar and other renewables meas that is often where excess capacity occurs. Utilities are exploring (and starting to install) battery systems to buffer this excess, and this will continue (often with a "second life" for used EV batteries). If a utility has tens of thousands of EVs plugged in thru smart chargers, they can serve this purpose as well. A V2G/H EV can serve at the individual level as a load shaving device during peak times, reducing the required capacity of the grid.
I haven't heard a single utility say they could not meet the demand imposed by EV adoption, it's one of those myths that seems to keep spreading.

 

[oskeei]

Unless something dramatic occurs (bankruptcy, HUGE spike in price, horrible performance at launch), we are all in on the R1S. We traded in the Minivan a couple weeks back and got a PHEV to tide us over until the R1S is ready and learning more about EV while having gas as backup.

The next car will need to be a "family" haulter and the only other option that has interested the family is the ID.Buzz which will be backup for now.

The fact the R1S is built locally is what has us locked in. We are about 45 minutes from the factory and love what the company has contributed locally.

For those getting the R1T and live in more populated places, PLEASE make sure needs fit with the truck vice the R1S. I have know my fair share of folks that buy a pick-up as their daily and regret it.

We have a full-size pickup (probably a couple feet longer than the R1T). The kids HATE the pick-up when we have to use it to get from point a to b. We have found we use it mostly to haul and pull stuff or as backup vehicle. I think living in more populated areas, a lot of folks won't be hauling or pulling much and R1S may be more functional. Just sharing based on comments I read on other Rivian outlets.

 

[CommodoreAmiga]

Can you better explain your position here? I’m curious what view point I am not seeing.

Managing load is one thing, having the required capacity is yet another. I do agree that for normal use one would probably choose off hours to do their charging but as you increase the number of EVs being used there will be more people that need to add range in peak times by necessity rather than choice which will impact the grid.

Most people would charge at night, when grid demand is lowest.

Yes, some people would charge at peak times -- long trips, or some people with odd access to charging... But the majority will charge off-peak.

 

[SANZC02]

I don't see the necessity to charge at peak times. Easy to delay charging until later in the night, or charge during the day for those that have workplace charging.
"Old school" meant peak demand during the day for A/C and business use, but the advent of solar and other renewables meas that is often where excess capacity occurs. Utilities are exploring (and starting to install) battery systems to buffer this excess, and this will continue (often with a "second life" for used EV batteries). If a utility has tens of thousands of EVs plugged in thru smart chargers, they can serve this purpose as well. A V2G/H EV can serve at the individual level as a load shaving device during peak times, reducing the required capacity of the grid.
I haven't heard a single utility say they could not meet the demand imposed by EV adoption, it's one of those myths that seems to keep spreading.

Thanks for the additional information. I really hope it plays out this way.

All I am saying is here in California we are already seeing the grid being stressed. The utilities are offering rate breaks to people who allow for them to shut off their ACs during peak usage. We are seeing rolling brownouts during major heatwaves. I do envision that they will want to use the smart chargers as well and disable them when needed to prevent the grid from being overloaded.

This is not a myth I have heard and trying to to spread. I am looking at it as a simple laymen based on what I am seeing today from existing power requirements and the actual usage people will require moving forward.

For instance I use about 14K/Wh a day at my house on average so if I have to do a 50% charge at my house on an R1S large pack, I will be adding an additional 5 days of average usage in that stretch of time to charge my car. I can easily double my current monthly usage by simply charging 50% 6 times during the month. Now let's go with a house that will have 2 EVs, I can easily tripled my monthly usage

I am adding solar to offset a lot of this but I still see that the demand is going to be for much more power than currently required as the world changes from ICE to EV.

When you look at the threads for people concerned about range and wanting the charging infrastructure to be built out, most of those are not going to be used over night but during the day when people are traveling. When you are at home, it is easy to adjust charge times, when traveling it is more I need it now.

I am interested in VtoH for emergency power outages but would not want to do VtoG and have the battery of the EV supplementing the grid.

Again, as I stated this is a simplistic view from a laymen without a back ground in power infrastructures. They have the grids designed for current usage and will need to expand what they have. A very recent example would be a couple of months ago when Texas had a crazy cold wave, this brought down the power grid in most of Texas because usage exceeded capacity.

I'm sure they all are taking this into account but, it will require time to build out in order to accommodate the additional load that will be required.

 

[DucRider]

Thanks for the additional information. I really hope it plays out this way.

All I am saying is here in California we are already seeing the grid being stressed. The utilities are offering rate breaks to people who allow for them to shut off their ACs during peak usage. We are seeing rolling brownouts during major heatwaves. I do envision that they will want to use the smart chargers as well and disable them when needed to prevent the grid from being overloaded.

This is not a myth I have heard and trying to to spread. I am looking at it as a simple laymen based on what I am seeing today from existing power requirements and the actual usage people will require moving forward.

For instance I use about 14K/Wh a day at my house on average so if I have to do a 50% charge at my house on an R1S large pack, I will be adding an additional 5 days of average usage in that stretch of time to charge my car. I can easily double my current monthly usage by simply charging 50% 6 times during the month. Now let's go with a house that will have 2 EVs, I can easily tripled my monthly usage

I am adding solar to offset a lot of this but I still see that the demand is going to be for much more power than currently required as the world changes from ICE to EV.

When you look at the threads for people concerned about range and wanting the charging infrastructure to be built out, most of those are not going to be used over night but during the day when people are traveling. When you are at home, it is easy to adjust charge times, when traveling it is more I need it now.

I am interested in VtoH for emergency power outages but would not want to do VtoG and have the battery of the EV supplementing the grid.

Again, as I stated this is a simplistic view from a laymen without a back ground in power infrastructures. They have the grids designed for current usage and will need to expand what they have. A very recent example would be a couple of months ago when Texas had a crazy cold wave, this brought down the power grid in most of Texas because usage exceeded capacity.

I'm sure they all are taking this into account but, it will require time to build out in order to accommodate the additional load that will be required.

Google "Duck Curve" for a detailed look, but the demand on the CA generation/grid looks like this:

The issue is not daytime or nighttime use, but the evening use as people get home and crank the AC, cook, run the dishwasher, clothes dryer, etc. The grid has to supply enough to meet the peak demand. EVs (and other batteries) can buffer that peak and shift and smooth the demand. The net result is existing generation can meet a huge portion of the upcoming additional demand from EVs if optimization techniques are employed.
Also worth noting that demand is not going to jump overnight. Just as oil producers have were able to ramp over the decades to meet the ever increasing demand, electric utilities also will be able to ramp to meet demand..

 

[SeaGeo]

Changed my mind. I'm getting a Rivian/Amazon van if my R1T doesn't show up within a year from now.

 

[Gshenderson]

If all 375 million cars in the US were converted to EV’s, and assuming each one consumes an average of 10kWh per day* all sourced from the grid, it would increase the daily US electricity grid consumption by ~25%. Yeah, a decent chunk of that would be at night, but enough would be during the day to significantly stress our already stressed electric grid. I wouldn’t consider this a “myth”.*10kWh/day consumption based on 15k miles per year or ~40 miles per day usage and 4kWh/mi consumption rate.

Here’s the math. Feel free to check my work and correct any miscalculations.

275M cars x 10kWh per day consumption = 2.75 billion kWh/day total consumption for 275M EVs.

Current US electricity consumption is 4,222.5 tWh (4.2 trillion KWh) per year, or 11.6 billion kWh per day. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States
“In 2018 the total US consumption of electricity was 4,222.5 terawatt-hours (TWh)”

2.75B kWh increase to the 11.6B kWh current consumption is ~25% increase. This would not be a trivial impact.

 

[Gshenderson]

Google "Duck Curve" for a detailed look, but the demand on the CA generation/grid looks like this:

The issue is not daytime or nighttime use, but the evening use as people get home and crank the AC, cook, run the dishwasher, clothes dryer, etc. The grid has to supply enough to meet the peak demand. EVs (and other batteries) can buffer that peak and shift and smooth the demand. The net result is existing generation can meet a huge portion of the upcoming additional demand from EVs if optimization techniques are employed.
Also worth noting that demand is not going to jump overnight. Just as oil producers have were able to ramp over the decades to meet the ever increasing demand, electric utilities also will be able to ramp to meet demand..

The problem with this IMO is that it includes an assumption that people are willing to use an expensive battery in a comparatively expensive vehicle to provide free energy storage for the power companies. Unless it’s demonstrated that this does not impact battery health or lifespan, I doubt most people are going to be willing to do this.

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