The Max Pack Will Most Likely Be Canceled - IMO

[COdogman]

I'm 100% in agreement COdogman - and I'm in your same situation. Originally a Max Pack reservation holder (Nov 2021) and when I switched I didn't hear a peep. I was originally 1H of 2023 and I still don't even have an updated delivery window after switching to Large Pack back in March.

I personally don't believe they will cancel the Max Pack, but I could see them delaying it further to try and get as many vehicles produced with the large pack to get their margins.

I could definitely see them doing that as well. I would be very curious to know what percentage of those 98,000 reservations are max packs. One could definitely take their complete silence as a bad sign, but we also see here every day so many large pack reservations from 2-3 years ago who have still not heard from a guide or even gotten invited to an drive. So to me it’s still just a toss up as to who gets trucks.

A case could also be made that the best business decision for Rivian’s shareholders would be to produce as many post 3/1 orders as possible, to maximize profits. Obviously that would piss off all the pre 3/1 orders but depending on how many of each they have, they could consistently do some of each and make their books look slightly better.

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[AxelR]

I agree with everybody thinking they’ll push it back.
Probably not too much as the Silverado will have that 400+ range and should be coming in the next year.
I would have loved a 400+ R1S (5 seater).

 

[OEVA]

Not sure how constrained they are but the battery component costs are very high right now and is the biggest challenge for EV makers to control margins.

Battery costs are about to increase - and I think it will be substantially.
A small percentage of all of "Critical Minerals" and "Battery Components" will be able to meet the requirements that will come into play in a few months.
Manufacturers that want to qualify for the Tax Credit will essentially be in a bidding war, and ironically spending more on those components actually helps them in the required value %.
The net result is higher battery costs - at least in the short term (5 years?).

 

[odingrey]

I really hope you are wrong. I am coming from 5 prior teslas since 2014, and that mid 300's range is at least to me the sweet spot when traveling cross country. I hope they keep the Max Pack on the back burner and sell the large pack to those ready to go or willing to switch.

There are a couple of reasons I still hope for it. I had my first Tesla pre-supercharger network and charging on long-distance trips without DC charging is the pits. I used to stop at RV parks and charge for 6 to 8 hours on a 50 amp plug just to get to the coast here in Texas in my P85D. The P85D would only get mid 200's not that far off of the R1Ts highway range. It is still an issue even with DC fast charging being so much more common, being that the R1T is so much heavier, less efficient, and can't charge at the 250 kWh that the Tesla can. I was hoping to have the Max Pack to be able to charge up that sweet spot 80% of charge to make long-distance travel that much easier, as well as have the ability to go further off the grid without thinking about it, as well as towing.

Sorry for the rant. I hope your conjecture is just conjecture, and they aren't listening cause there are those of us who really want our cake and eat it too, and are willing to wait for the Max Pack. Most days I don't need that much range, but when you are taking a long distant trip a big battery rocks.

Hey here's the good news. On 21s, in conserve mode, doing an average of 70mph, I was pretty easily getting 330-340 miles of range. That was running though large elevation changes at about 80f with no wind.

It looks like a lot of the "mid 200s" range tests either use 20s, or all purpose mode or both. If you are going for range and get the 21s, and use conserve mode properly, I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.

Charging wise, I think I spent roughly 10 minutes longer charging at each stop when compared to my model 3 on the same route. Even more interesting was that I was able to skip towns my model 3 had to stop at on the same route. At the end of the trip, my total time was nearly identical to the Tesla.

I was very concerned about getting off the supercharger network, and even made a special 20 hour trip just to test it out, but I have to say that I was very impressed.

 

[kizamybute']

Personally, disagree. Just right now, all they care about is getting vehicles out the door. Right now, makes sense for them to offer only one configuration for those expecting delivery in the next year. Once they get some more vehicles on the road (around 50,000 trucks or SUV's) and get through most of the original pre-orders, plus the Amazon vans they're producing, then they'll start considering the smaller and larger battery pack trucks.

In the meantime, basically one primary configuration with color and wheel choices are the best way for them to produce as many trucks / suv's as possible.

With the EV Silverado coming soon and with 400 miles+ in range, the new Ford on the horizon, which will probably have more range than what is offered now and don't forget about what Dodge is planning to announce for their EV truck.

For anyone that wants to tow regularly, the max pack is necessary. 130 miles in range is just not practical. Rivian, with 300 miles in range would be at the bottom of the list of EV truck options in 2024. Being touted as an Adventure type vehicle, many will want to use it to tow travel trailers and such. 130 miles in real world towing range is just not attractive for those that do it regularly. They will need the max pack to have a chance to appeal to that group of buyers.

 

[JustBarely]

I dont think it's in their best interest long term to cancel that Max Pack or whatever they end up calling it. Range Range Range is the new flex with EV's. I have the 20inch all-terrains and average mid 200's. I can see how that is still unacceptable for a lot of people. Chevy is promising a 400mi truck. Lucid is doing incredible things with battery technology but I understand thats not a truck. They need to keep upping the range imho.

I really dont like turning or the ride quality in conserve mode. It's essentially a FWD 7,000lb vehicle.

 

[Dark-Fx]

I don’t disagree with your logic, but without confirmation of this being some sort of strategy to reward those who switch from max to large, it is just speculation. I had a max pack reserved and I switched to large and have not heard a peep other than getting invited for a first mile drive.

Also I might offer 1 big reason they would keep the max pack: Towing.

I do disagree. The Standard pack uses a different chemistry.

 

[Jabbahop]

It is interesting that several of us on this thread originally ordered Maxpack but switched to Large and have heard nothing in terms of an updated schedule. I wonder if that is a bug in the delivery system or a sign that there is an update coming about Maxpack availability and don’t want to deliver a large pack truck to those that really want/need Maxpack and then have regrets. Probably just wishful thinking.

 

[Attesan997]

Post price hike I was skeptical of the Explorer trim and Max Pack making it long term because of the money that would be flying out the door at each sale. I think they could split the difference between keeping the Max pack and not producing the trim at all by just putting in another 6-12 month delay. They can save face by not outright cancelling it but anyone who actually wants to get a vehicle in the foreseeable future can switch. They could even raise the price on new Max pack reservations to further dissuade people. This is awful for the community but certainly better for the health of the bottom line. They still won't be able to meet demand for another couple of years.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

IMO, they’re going to cancel it. My main thinking on this is that Rivian hasn’t been talking about it. They haven’t said anything about the progress or any new delays. I don’t think I’ve heard a peep from them on the matter.

I’ll be happy to be wrong.

 

[Budman]

I originally ordered max pack because I live in MN where the winters are cold and DC fast charging very sparse. I switched to standard pack in June and got my R1T in July. In conserve mode on 21" tires I am getting range far exceeding the EPA 314 mile estimate, even with a tent on the bed cross bars. I have no regrets about switching and now feel the $10k extra for the max pack just isn't justifiable for me.

I posted this chart below in a different tread but posting again here because it is relevant to the topic. It's the results I'm seeing on road trips of greater than 100 miles ranked from worst to best. I've since hit an efficiency of 3.02 m/kWh on a trip from our cabin to home, a range of 378 miles on a full charge! The speed is the average as reported by the trip computer. On freeway segments I have the cruise set to 70 mph which is the speed limit in our area.

 

[Dark-Fx]

I originally ordered max pack because I live in MN where the winters are cold and DC fast charging very sparse. I switched to standard pack in June and got my R1T in July. In conserve mode on 21" tires I am getting range far exceeding the EPA 314 mile estimate, even with a tent on the bed cross bars. I have no regrets about switching and now feel the $10k extra for the max pack just isn't justifiable for me.

I posted this chart below in a different tread but posting again here because it is relevant to the topic. It's the results I'm seeing on road trips of greater than 100 miles ranked from worst to best. I've since hit an efficiency of 3.02 m/kWh on a trip from our cabin to home, a range of 378 miles on a full charge! The speed is the average as reported by the trip computer. On freeway segments I have the cruise set to 70 mph which is the speed limit in our area.

I'm still very curious how much range is going to drop once the snow flies and starts accumulating on the road. If we have a road trip planned and it's actively snowing heavily on the return trip, I expect range could be significantly impacted. Rivian's cold weather performance is still relatively unknown and probably part of the reason they delayed general availability until March-ish. I don't want to be obligated to stop every two hours or less if we are taking a trip that would take 8 hours in an ICE.

 

[manitou202]

Most people will not be willing to spend $10k for the additional 100 miles of range. It will be rarely used by the average person and 300 miles of range is plenty for your typical EV road trip.

As mentioned above the main reason for the max pack is towing. I could see Rivian keeping it purely for this use case, and to advertise they offer a 400 mile range option. Something the Lightning/Hummer doesn't offer today, but will possibly be offered by the Cybertruck and Silverado. However no reason to prioritize max packs until the battery supply chain gets figured out. So it could be a long wait with high likelihood they end up cancelling.

 

[mkhuffman]

I originally ordered max pack because I live in MN where the winters are cold and DC fast charging very sparse. I switched to standard pack in June and got my R1T in July. In conserve mode on 21" tires I am getting range far exceeding the EPA 314 mile estimate, even with a tent on the bed cross bars. I have no regrets about switching and now feel the $10k extra for the max pack just isn't justifiable for me.

I posted this chart below in a different tread but posting again here because it is relevant to the topic. It's the results I'm seeing on road trips of greater than 100 miles ranked from worst to best. I've since hit an efficiency of 3.02 m/kWh on a trip from our cabin to home, a range of 378 miles on a full charge! The speed is the average as reported by the trip computer. On freeway segments I have the cruise set to 70 mph which is the speed limit in our area.

Those are great efficiency numbers, but I simply cannot drive that slow.

If you set the cruise for 70, that means you were going 67 (I think). In my Mustang Mach-E, I set the cruise at 80 (which is actually 79 due to the speedometer offset). When I first got the MME, I thought I would drive slower than in an ICE vehicle to conserve range, but nope. Can't do it.

I am waiting for the Rivian R1S with max pack and removable roof. If it never comes, I am very unlikely to get a Rivian. So while Rivian may decide to cancel the max pack, they will certainly be cancelling a good number of potential customer orders, including mine.

 

[mkhuffman]

Most people will not be willing to spend $10k for the additional 100 miles of range. It will be rarely used by the average person and 300 miles of range is plenty for your typical EV road trip.

As mentioned above the main reason for the max pack is towing. I could see Rivian keeping it purely for this use case, and to advertise they offer a 400 mile range option. Something the Lightning/Hummer doesn't offer today, but will possibly be offered by the Cybertruck and Silverado. However no reason to prioritize max packs until the battery supply chain gets figured out. So it could be a long wait with high likelihood they end up cancelling.

If you frequently go on out of town trips, you will definitely appreciate the longer range. Charger congestion is a big problem, and it is getting worse very, very quickly. If you can skip a DCFC or two, your trip will be much less stressful.

I cannot imagine waiting in line to DCFC. That will make me go back to ICE. Longer range BEVs are needed for those of us who travel frequently.

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