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Solid State Batteries?

electruck

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I know that every time solid-state batteries is mentioned, the response is a viable commercial EV solution is 5-10 years away. Lets say a breakthrough (like QS or someone else) makes it happen in 4 years instead. Consider if 2026 model year brings this next-gen EV class to market. What happens then to best of the last-gen like a Rivian or today's Tesla? Will the value plunge to say 20% of purchase price?

Its thoughts like this, in the back of my mind, that give me pause about the wisdom of jumping all-in on a Rivian or any other high-end EV in the next couple of years.
I sometimes have the same thoughts but I don't worry too much about it as there is always a huge market for used vehicles and people who can't afford (or are unwilling to pony up for) the latest and greatest technology. I suspect long term reliability may end up being a bigger factor in future resale value.
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DucRider

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Consider if 2026 model year brings this next-gen EV class to market. What happens then to best of the last-gen like a Rivian or today's Tesla? Will the value plunge to say 20% of purchase price?
No.

The functionality and value of your vehicle will not change overnight. Those shopping for a new vehicle will have to decide if the likely large premium for solid state is worth it to them, or if the "bang for the buck" of Li-Ion is the best route. The switch to Solid State (or whatever) will be gradual and the first adopters will pay a significant premium. In some use cases it will be required to meet their needs - for most it won't.
 

MReda

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I know that every time solid-state batteries is mentioned, the response is a viable commercial EV solution is 5-10 years away. Lets say a breakthrough (like QS or someone else) makes it happen in 4 years instead. Consider if 2026 model year brings this next-gen EV class to market. What happens then to best of the last-gen like a Rivian or today's Tesla? Will the value plunge to say 20% of purchase price?

Its thoughts like this, in the back of my mind, that give me pause about the wisdom of jumping all-in on a Rivian or any other high-end EV in the next couple of years.
I'm sure it will decrease the value of our cars, but not nearly as dramatically. There will be a floor where people who can't (or won't) afford a new EV will be buyers. In other words, a premium truck with "dated" battery technology is still a premium truck.

As far as timing, let's say 4 years from now, solid state batteries that will charge in 5 minutes are in every new EV. What kind of charger will that require, and how many will be available? In other words, the batteries may have the capability, but I don't think it will be usable everywhere, which will reduce it's usefulness at first.
 

Gshenderson

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Its thoughts like this, in the back of my mind, that give me pause about the wisdom of jumping all-in on a Rivian or any other high-end EV in the next couple of years.
And 4-5 years from now, there will be yet another “next game changing big thing” that’s 3-5 years away from production. So,there will always be a reason not to buy.
 

LoneStar

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^^^ agreed :rock:
 

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SANZC02

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There are a couple of other major challenges for these as well.

1) Scaling for mass production is a major problem.
2) getting them to run at lower temperatures

Right now they have to be heated up before you can drive. Would be OK in a bus because you warm them up and drive all day. No one will want to warm their car battery up before they could drive it every time they get in. Completely different use cases.

It still seems like even 5 years to get these in production personal use vehicles does not seem to be feasible. My opinion is closer to the end of this decade.
 

LeoH

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The only car company that has been mouthing a lot about Solid State is Toyota (VW recently), which is odd given their hesitance to use Lithium batteries instead of the bulky nickel ones in their hybrids for many years, and then their BEV car stance. They are launching a US BEV soon, but I do not think they will be Solid State. There are some scale and technological challenges for them to sway the game right now, but they are the future.
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