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$RIVN Status (Not Rah, Rah - Not Bashing... Just Is)

mkg3

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Total float is roughly 680M shares. During the two days after the earnings call, roughly 320M shares turned over or roughly 50%.

Those still holding on probably are taking wait and see or that they still believe in Rivian; hence, small recovery over the last couple of days, including today so far.

Rivian has about 14.8% short interest or about 101M share (of the total outstanding, which is about 977M shares).

So it's all likely that Rivian is a trade, not an investment until the story changes. Probably will be a spike leading up to R2 reveal, then sell off back down.

Here is new note from Morgan Stanley lowering the price target. The key in this note is that they had a follow up call with Rivian after the earrings to get further info:

12:01 PM EST, 02/27/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is entering its "crisis" mode and will need to execute on costs, collaboration, and capital discipline for a turnaround, Morgan Stanley said in a note.

"Following Q4 earnings, and our follow-up call with management, we were left with a clear impression of a heightened sense of urgency with respect to the need for the company to attack costs and to remain flexible in terms of strategy," the investment firm said . Morgan Stanley noted that Rivian Automotive (RIVN) could face challenges in growing its top line amid a slowdown in the electric vehicle market.

Morgan Stanley said it expects further reduction in the company's unit costs this year and Q4 could see a breakeven in gross margin, but this would require "substantial" re-engineering in its vehicle models and improvements to material costs and purchased components.

The investment firm also noted that Rivian could reconsider its capital spending given the current landscape of the electric vehicle market. The company could also explore collaborating with peers to share costs and improve efficiencies, Morgan Stanley added.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its overweight rating on Rivian Automotive (RIVN), whiling lowering its price target to $14 from $24.
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rivinv

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Total float is roughly 680M shares. During the two days after the earnings call, roughly 320M shares turned over or roughly 50%.

Those still holding on probably are taking wait and see or that they still believe in Rivian; hence, small recovery over the last couple of days, including today so far.

That is what i am seeing too; and if you add the next 3 days (including today) of transactions as well, total shares sold/changed hands is ~ 490M in total over the past 5 days!!!

Amazon holds ~ 158M

Given that the total float is 680M, looks like other than Amazon, every other share holder has almost sold off in the past few days; Correct me if I am wrong.

Don't want unsuspecting retail investors to get into this risk without understanding the future of the company/stock reading a few clickbait articles.
 

evguy

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I agree volatility will continue in the short term, even after R2 reveal, at least until they reach gross profit. Still sitting on my average of 15.50, should have swing traded more of my position last year when it was bouncing between 12 and 28....
 

rivinv

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At this point, I feel the forecasts on the stock are a scam, just to keep the stock price up so that the hedge investors can get out of it cutting down their losses.
And unsuspecting retail investors will be left holding the bags.
 

Biturbowned

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I’ve been averaging down, but I have money sidelined if it drops to $5. The brand cache is there imo - enough so that I think it would be an attractive acquisition target, specifically for AMZN, but perhaps legacy auto makes a pass. The way I see it, the fundamentals aren’t good, but I do think there’s interest in the EDV market with IRA discounts and RIVN’s success at software/hardware integration. I think they have a lot of engineering talent and I do think there’s post-sale monetization opportunity e.g. semi-autonomous driving as well as other addressable markets e.g. e-bikes and residential/commercial energy storage. I expect the international R2 to be a hit as a Model Y competitor and of all the EV startups, I like Rivian’s chances best. Not investment advice, just my personal plan, do your own DD etc.
 

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gvtucker

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That is what i am seeing too; and if you add the next 3 days (including today) of transactions as well, total shares sold/changed hands is ~ 490M in total over the past 5 days!!!

Amazon holds ~ 158M

Given that the total float is 680M, looks like other than Amazon, every other share holder has almost sold off in the past few days; Correct me if I am wrong.

Don't want unsuspecting retail investors to get into this risk without understanding the future of the company/stock reading a few clickbait articles.
No, that isn't correct. For almost all retail trades, buys and sells, the other side of the trade is not an investor, but rather a high speed trader like Citadel. That high speed trader turns around and immediately sells those shares, and it is quite possible that the buyer is **also** not an investor.

The trading volume really has no correlation with the future of the company and the stock.
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