Rivian misses Q4 delivery estimates, but beats 2023 annual production forecast

[kshivark]

I recommend R1S to a friend of mine, he was expecting to buy a car mid 2024. To try his luck he put in the reservation 1st week of dec for a R1S, a week later he was given access to the R1S shop by the Rivian CS. R1S DM large/max packs were ready available at the shop. QD model are also available but not as many as DM. A custom build will def need a lead time. It is apparent that the backlog has been burned down for popular moving configs.

Sponsored

 

[kizamybute']

I received access to the R1S shop a month or two ago, seems to be plenty of inventory every day. R1T shop has been publicly available for even longer.

I don't think Rivian is production-limited, they are demand-limited at the current price points. They tried to open additional demand, likely backlogged orders, with the "Max" pack (which appears to be little more than a warmed-over Large pack) but the real issue is pricing.

These vehicles were engineered at, and priced for, lower price points in 2022. Add 5-7% for two years of inflation since then and they are still sitting too high. No value in beating the production target if the vehicles are just piling up.

My takes on what happens next:
- some price cuts on the current R1 lineup, should be ASAP
- introduction of the Standard pack late Jan/early Feb

That should get them enough steady demand to keep production busy until they retool in Q2 to cut costs. I suspect they were hoping to put off the price cuts until after the retooling but that's not going to happen, they will come up way short in Q1 if they take that approach. Best to trim prices now and even subsidize financing terms (Fed likely to cut rates this year lowers the risk to Rivian) to get those inventory units flowing otherwise there will never be an R2, or a D2 (bad pun). They won't make it that far.

I agree. Had I not been an early reservation holder, I wouldn't have paid today's pricing. It made sense at the prior price point, barely, to me. When they tried to jack up the prices on all reservation holders, I immediately canceled my reservation. They reinstated and I'm happy they did. LOVE the truck. But, on the other side, seems like ALL EV trucks are too expensive. Chevy's at $100,000. Fords at $90,000+. Ram will be $100,000+. Of course, this is for their top trim levels. Base models are still going to be over $70,000 with each having optioned for larger battery packs that are competitive to Rivian's range. The whole EV truck market is over-priced for it become too mainstream. One of these days, they will all have to offer better pricing. SUVS from premium brands are also quite pricey. I guess the R2 will help, but for those that want a full size truck or SUV, most simply can't afford a $1,200 (minimum) payment every month.

 

[kshivark]

The overall EV car market in the 80K+ segment is facing demand pressure due to ongoing macro and interest scenario. I came across this Jalponik article about discounts on EV9’s https://jalopnik.com/the-kia-ev9-is-already-being-discounted-in-some-places-1851134141. Tesla predicted the trend early and responded with cuts, other companies are also reacting with price cuts to swim through the current market cycle. Rivian is in a stickier situation since it is a 2 car company with both products priced at a premium. Rivian has to follow up to shore up deliveries to build scale via price cuts, advertising, leasing or increasing store footprint. Or see its company market value continue to erode over next quarters. The stock is 20% down since Q4 results!!

 

[R1SFamilyGuy]

Dual motor large battery pack with any paint color should be under 80k for both R1T and R1S. Rivian needs to figure out how to make that happen.

think they should just extend pre-hike prices by 6 months - or by just enough to cover moi; I promise to buy Rivian stock to the value of tax credit that’ll then happen

 

[TRap015]

I was ready to take delivery, but vehicle was in transit. It could also be transit delay during holiday season

 

[FLRivi24]

Does the group think Rivian will have to rely on incentives to move growing inventory? In Q4, there was a free charger incentive for purchased R1Ts. What incentives have folks negotiated with their Guides?

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

I recommend R1S to a friend of mine, he was expecting to buy a car mid 2024. To try his luck he put in the reservation 1st week of dec for a R1S, a week later he was given access to the R1S shop by the Rivian CS. R1S DM large/max packs were ready available at the shop. QD model are also available but not as many as DM. A custom build will def need a lead time. It is apparent that the backlog has been burned down for popular moving configs.

This is my take as well. I'm watching the 2023 used R1S market and it is transitioning as well to lower prices.....they have a demand challenge now....zero doubt in my mind, and Q4 deliveries were not only an EDV issue, but an R1 challenge. They probably want to hold prices until the new factory has some concrete and tilt up walls....so, I'd say May/June......then adjust pricing.

 

[Khaos]

Rivian prices are higher in Canada that just a straight currency conversion. Rivian should lower prices to comparable US prices.

Rivian opened up a service center in Germany recently.

Rivian should open sales in Australia too.

Opening new markets is preferable to price cuts in the USA. It hurts the bottom line and resale value for current customers.

Agreed about the Canada comment. Prices are more than just the conversion and if they were lower they're attract more Canadians

Sponsored