Rivian misses Q4 delivery estimates, but beats 2023 annual production forecast

[Riviot]

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...quarterly-deliveries-expectations-2024-01-02/

The company delivered 13,972 vehicles in the quarter to Dec. 31, 10% lower than the previous quarter. It was below estimates of 14,430, according to 13 analysts polled by Visible Alpha.

But ...

Rivian produced 17,541 vehicles in the last three months of 2023, up 7.5% from the prior quarter. That took the annual production to 57,232 units, beating its forecast of 54,000.

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[Mister Person]

Deliveries and registrations are the key number. Rivian can produce all the product they want but if people aren't taking delivery and registering their vehicles the market will notice. Stock is down almost 10% this morning.

 

[MGA]

Maybe it relates to EDVs on parking lot? (there were a picture of several thousand EDVs recently).

 

[Dark-Fx]

I'm pretty curious how much of the Amazon exclusivity being released is contributing to production of non-delivered vehicles. Since the Amazon vans are considered delivered as soon as they hit the Rivian storage lot, but vehicles that are going to be produced for other fleets probably aren't.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Maybe it relates to EDVs on parking lot? (there were a picture of several thousand EDVs recently).

Amazon vans are considered delivered as soon as they hit the Rivian storage lot.

 

[Scoiatael]

Dual motor large battery pack with any paint color should be under 80k for both R1T and R1S. Rivian needs to figure out how to make that happen.

 

[DuoRivians]

Amazon vans are considered delivered as soon as they hit the Rivian storage lot.

I don’t think this is entirely true. Otherwise, why would Rivian call out that EDV deliveries in Q4 will be lower because Amazon takes fewer vans during the holiday season

 

[NineElectrics]

Kia EV9 hurting sales? And now we know why R1Ts have a lease option. CarPlay here we come!

 

[Freddie]

It also could be that customers waiting on 24 model year and give it a pass in Q4. One of my friends went from placing an order to delivery in 2 weeks

 

[carsly]

I received access to the R1S shop a month or two ago, seems to be plenty of inventory every day. R1T shop has been publicly available for even longer.

I don't think Rivian is production-limited, they are demand-limited at the current price points. They tried to open additional demand, likely backlogged orders, with the "Max" pack (which appears to be little more than a warmed-over Large pack) but the real issue is pricing.

These vehicles were engineered at, and priced for, lower price points in 2022. Add 5-7% for two years of inflation since then and they are still sitting too high. No value in beating the production target if the vehicles are just piling up.

My takes on what happens next:
- some price cuts on the current R1 lineup, should be ASAP
- introduction of the Standard pack late Jan/early Feb

That should get them enough steady demand to keep production busy until they retool in Q2 to cut costs. I suspect they were hoping to put off the price cuts until after the retooling but that's not going to happen, they will come up way short in Q1 if they take that approach. Best to trim prices now and even subsidize financing terms (Fed likely to cut rates this year lowers the risk to Rivian) to get those inventory units flowing otherwise there will never be an R2, or a D2 (bad pun). They won't make it that far.

 

[carsly]

I received access to the R1S shop a month or two ago, seems to be plenty of inventory every day. R1T shop has been publicly available for even longer.

I don't think Rivian is production-limited, they are demand-limited at the current price points. They tried to open additional demand, likely backlogged orders, with the "Max" pack (which appears to be little more than a warmed-over Large pack) but the real issue is pricing.

These vehicles were engineered at, and priced for, lower price points in 2022. Add 5-7% for two years of inflation since then and they are still sitting too high. No value in beating the production target if the vehicles are just piling up.

My takes on what happens next:
- some price cuts on the current R1 lineup, should be ASAP
- introduction of the Standard pack late Jan/early Feb

That should get them enough steady demand to keep production busy until they retool in Q2 to cut costs. I suspect they were hoping to put off the price cuts until after the retooling but that's not going to happen, they will come up way short in Q1 if they take that approach. Best to trim prices now and even subsidize financing terms (Fed likely to cut rates this year lowers the risk to Rivian) to get those inventory units flowing otherwise there will never be an R2, or a D2 (bad pun). They won't make it that far.

oh, to add - competition will intensify this year with the Kia EV9 already starting to ramp and the delayed Polestar 3 and Volvo EX90 coming mid-year. And let's not forget the also much-delayed Macan EV. Sure, it's smaller, but it will be in the same price band.

Lurking in the shadows is the $80K Model X, also more minivan than SUV but at $80K with Supercharger access immediately, Fed rebate eligibility, and real 250+kw charging it's a serious option against a $100K R1S.

 

[jjswan33]

Kia EV9 hurting sales? And now we know why R1Ts have a lease option. CarPlay here we come!

EV9s have been on lots for about a week or two now out here in the West and almost all of those on lots are pre-orders that declined delivery. So not likely, that said I drove one and I think they are going to be a great family SUV. I might even have leased one if not for the silly trade in offer they gave on my almost new Ioniq 5.

 

[NY_Rob]

I received access to the R1S shop a month or two ago, seems to be plenty of inventory every day. R1T shop has been publicly available for even longer.

I don't think Rivian is production-limited, they are demand-limited at the current price points. They tried to open additional demand, likely backlogged orders, with the "Max" pack (which appears to be little more than a warmed-over Large pack) but the real issue is pricing.

These vehicles were engineered at, and priced for, lower price points in 2022. Add 5-7% for two years of inflation since then and they are still sitting too high. No value in beating the production target if the vehicles are just piling up.

My takes on what happens next:
- some price cuts on the current R1 lineup, should be ASAP
- introduction of the Standard pack late Jan/early Feb

That should get them enough steady demand to keep production busy until they retool in Q2 to cut costs. I suspect they were hoping to put off the price cuts until after the retooling but that's not going to happen, they will come up way short in Q1 if they take that approach. Best to trim prices now and even subsidize financing terms (Fed likely to cut rates this year lowers the risk to Rivian) to get those inventory units flowing otherwise there will never be an R2, or a D2 (bad pun). They won't make it that far.

^ agreed with everything you said.. and that's why the R2 line could likely determine if Rivian sinks or swims.

FWIW- the R2's need to start at $49,999 or lower not $60K+
Will that be difficult to accomplish.. yes, but with all the competition coming, it's 100% necessary. The days of offering only $90-$100K halo EV's are coming to a close, now it's time to get down to building affordable EV's for everyone else if you want to survive.

 

[DuoRivians]

1. It’s not EV9 competition
2. Rivian isn’t going to lower prices.
3. The gap is most likely from fewer EDVs delivered this quarter, as warned by the team last earnings:

 

[Hillbilly]

I received access to the R1S shop a month or two ago, seems to be plenty of inventory every day. R1T shop has been publicly available for even longer.

I don't think Rivian is production-limited, they are demand-limited at the current price points. They tried to open additional demand, likely backlogged orders, with the "Max" pack (which appears to be little more than a warmed-over Large pack) but the real issue is pricing.

These vehicles were engineered at, and priced for, lower price points in 2022. Add 5-7% for two years of inflation since then and they are still sitting too high. No value in beating the production target if the vehicles are just piling up.

My takes on what happens next:
- some price cuts on the current R1 lineup, should be ASAP
- introduction of the Standard pack late Jan/early Feb

That should get them enough steady demand to keep production busy until they retool in Q2 to cut costs. I suspect they were hoping to put off the price cuts until after the retooling but that's not going to happen, they will come up way short in Q1 if they take that approach. Best to trim prices now and even subsidize financing terms (Fed likely to cut rates this year lowers the risk to Rivian) to get those inventory units flowing otherwise there will never be an R2, or a D2 (bad pun). They won't make it that far.

Lower prices but give those of us who paid more some free charging up to the amount of the price cut please.

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