R1S's are being delivered (according to Rivian customer support)

[TomP]

Also received the account page reflecting pre-March 2022 preorder pricing and guide e-mail today. Ordered R1T 11/26/18 and later switched to R1S LE with March/April 2022 delivery window.
Glad to see some movement!

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[jtshaw]

Just curious if you personally got that email (he asked hopefully).

I did!

 

[grantsi]

My Friday update ( June/July R1S LE ) was a note letting me know my pricing would be updated next week…not as exciting as the guide note but better than nothing I suppose

 

[crcole]

CRCOLE, what conversion rate did you assume for 2021 reservation holders? Results could vary markedly depending on this assumption. As others have pointed out, some people are also holding reservations for other brand vehicles, rising rates may price out some people, some may be forced to buy something else before their Rivian can be delivered, etc.

Excellent question. I assumed 100% conversion rate.
Below is my estimate of R1 cumulative pre-orders by quarter. You can use it with a different conversion rate to estimate deliveries.

Q1'20	Q2'20	Q3'20	Q4'20	Q1'21	Q2'21	Q3'21	Q4'21
4800	7000	10000	15000	22,500	33,000	48400	71000

 

[AllInev]

do we want them to pinkie swear?

? Hadn’t thought of that before. Not a bad idea.

 

[timf]

It sounds like only those with March/April R1S got the added promise of guide contact next week. With April/May I got no such promise, even though my window opens next week as well. Hopefully it won't be too much longer.

 

[Guy]

It sounds like only those with March/April R1S got the added promise of guide contact next week. With April/May I got no such promise, even though my window opens next week as well. Hopefully it won't be too much longer.

This would indicate that by mid April some people will receive R1S vehicles. Hopefully Rivian share more details soon in the interior space.

 

[Jac]

Excellent question. I assumed 100% conversion rate.
Below is my estimate of R1 cumulative pre-orders by quarter. You can use it with a different conversion rate to estimate deliveries.

Q1'20	Q2'20	Q3'20	Q4'20	Q1'21	Q2'21	Q3'21	Q4'21
4800	7000	10000	15000	22,500	33,000	48400	71000

These estimated cumulative reservations by quarter look reasonable to me. If I had to guess what portion will ultimately convert from $1,000 deposits to $80,000 R1T or R1S purchases 12 or more months in the future I’d say 7 or 8 out of 10.

 

[crcole]

These estimated cumulative reservations by quarter look reasonable to me. If I had to guess what portion will ultimately convert from $1,000 deposits to $80,000 R1T or R1S purchases 12 or more months in the future I’d say 7 or 8 out of 10.

Let's assume 75% conversion. Most 2020 and earlier pre-orders are delivered by Q3'22. If Rivian builds 80,000 in 2023, the pre-order delivery mapping looks like this:

Total	R1	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
80,000	48,000	Q1'21	Q2'21	Q3'21	50% Q4'21

 

[Jac]

Let's assume 75% conversion. Most 2020 and earlier pre-orders are delivered by Q3'22. If Rivian builds 80,000 in 2023, the pre-order delivery mapping looks like this:

Total	R1	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
80,000	48,000	Q1'21	Q2'21	Q3'21	50% Q4'21

CRCOLE, this looks entirely plausible. This projection suggests folks who made their R1T or R1S reservations during 2021 should realistically contemplate about a two year wait from reservation date to delivery. Not dramatically different from what Rivian communicated to us as estimated delivery windows back in late December 2021.

 

[dleewla]

In case this isn't already old news, I spoke with Rivian support today who confirmed that R1S's are on the production line and are being delivered.

I'm slated to get mine in the first half of 2023.

That line "I have been seeing them coming through the line here at the plant" is a line ive heard CS use on multiple occasions. its a tag line and i am skeptical every time i hear it.

 

[dleewla]

none of that is indicative of a delay. what am i missing?

history is what tells us its indicative.

 

[Corewhit]

I agree, I think its a tag line. or worse...I was asking CS yesterday about charger dimensions and closed with "Are you seeing any R1S's come off the line?". The CS agent responded "We've been making deliveries of the R1S since late 2021". I was sort of speechless... but in a chat box sort of way (......). Almost felt like it was a bot.

 

[R1Sky Business]

At least a few folks with R1S orders in the March/April window got a version of the e-mail Tony just sent out about Account updates that tells us we will get our Guides assigned next week.

"We’re also excited to introduce you to your Rivian Guide next week. They will support you through the entire process, from finalizing and confirming your configuration to taking delivery of your brand new R1S. You’ll be able to begin setting up intro calls with them starting the week of April 4th."

Congratulations man....s00n is here

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yeah, the line about R1S coming off the line is meaningless. They have to produce a lot of non customer vehicles for validation and crash testing.

But nice to hear about delivery guides for a few R1S!

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