How many R1 owners are moving to R2?

[Billyk24]

The R2 from June is not half baked. The only change early next year is lidar and RAP1 chip which is focused solely on autonomy. Everything else stays the same - infotainment, batteries, motors, overall design etc.
Also L4 autonomy (which is what the RAP1 is for) is, by RJs own words in recent interviews, late 2020s to early 2030s.

That is not what multiple media sources are stating.

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[DuoRivian]

That is not what multiple media sources are stating.

What media sources? RJ in interviews said L4 late 2020s or early 2030s. Therefore the current setup is capable of advances until then and solid L3 autonomy.
Any sources for other changes other than obviously Tri motor and expected color changes. This R2 has had years to be ready and has updated batteries, next gen internal motors, updates infotainment chip, updated heat pump etc.

 

[Mekanali]

I think I might. Assuming my R1S gen2 large performance has a decent trade in value, I may go with the launch R2. (I am a day 1 within the first 2 minutes reservation holder, and a current R1 owner.)

For my purposes, the R2 will serve me just about as well as my R1 does now, with lower monthly payments. I am happy with autonomy+ as it stands today, so waiting for the next gen chip + lidar (while tempting) probably won’t be worth what I’m assuming will be a higher price when it comes out. By the time I’m ready to trade in the R2, there will probably be a gen 4 or later ready to go.

Smaller form factor, better efficiency, lower costs, same autonomy features… seems like the move for me!

Worst case scenario- if the trade in value for my R1S isn’t where I’d need it to be, I’ll just keep it, lol. I do love it a lot!

 

[rbdavis808]

... waiting for the next gen chip + lidar (while tempting) probably won’t be worth what I’m assuming will be a higher price when it comes out.

I've heard nothing from any Rivian source about any LIDAR price bump, not that I'm at all well-informed. Non-wild speculation invited! What happened with R1 pricing at the gen2 switchover point, and if there was a bump did it later revert to gen1 price and how long did that take if so?

 

[Just Passing By]

I've heard nothing from any Rivian source about any LIDAR price bump, not that I'm at all well-informed. Non-wild speculation invited! What happened with R1 pricing at the gen2 switchover point, and if there was a bump did it later revert to gen1 price and how long did that take if so?

I don't know why people assume the LIDAR/RAP1 processor integration will raise the prices.

It shouldn't be because of the component cost because Rivian/RJ has said that the RAP1 platform is several hundred dollars less costly than the nVidia platform they currently use. He has also said that the LIDAR sensor is only about a couple of hundred bucks. So net component cost looks a wash ... or the in house solution may actually cost less.

So then the other argument is that its a more capable hardware and software platform, so they'll just charge more for it to increase profit margins. But this overlooks the importance of accelerating autonomy aka building the Ground Truth data set, particularly now they have the Uber deal that is highly dependent on the autonomy program execution. Getting LIDAR into as many vehicles as possible, as quickly as possible, helps Rivian collect data faster, to help accelerate the autonomy program.

For these reasons I think it unlikely Rivian will increase vehicle cost for LIDAR/RAP1

 

[Fmc]

I just changed a flat tire. The weight of an r1 tire might be enough for me to trade down

 

[Mekanali]

I don't know why people assume the LIDAR/RAP1 processor integration will raise the prices.

It shouldn't be because of the component cost because Rivian/RJ has said that the RAP1 platform is several hundred dollars less costly than the nVidia platform they currently use. He has also said that the LIDAR sensor is only about a couple of hundred bucks. So net component cost looks a wash ... or the in house solution may actually cost less.

So then the other argument is that its a more capable hardware and software platform, so they'll just charge more for it to increase profit margins. But this overlooks the importance of accelerating autonomy aka building the Ground Truth data set, particularly now they have the Uber deal that is highly dependent on the autonomy program execution. Getting LIDAR into as many vehicles as possible, as quickly as possible, helps Rivian collect data faster, to help accelerate the autonomy program.

For these reasons I think it unlikely Rivian will increase vehicle cost for LIDAR/RAP1

I hope you’re right!! My assumption could be totally wrong and is not based on anything I’ve heard about future pricing for the next gen R2. I am totally in the dark there. It was just based on all the deals there were to move out the R1 gen1 stock before R1 gen2 launched. R1 gen2 also had some manufacturing cost reductions, along with the more capable chip with more headroom for future updates and autonomy+ instead of driver+, and it was priced higher than the gen1 vehicles that were priced to move out. (I got a great lease deal on an R1S gen1 during that time, before I bought my R1S gen2.) Likewise, the 2026 Gen2 vehicles with NACS ports were priced very slightly higher than the previous Gen2’s with CCS ports, iirc. My assumption was based on the next R2 also getting a new gen chip and more future functionality, as the R1 Gen2 did. I would be delighted if the cost increase assumption is wrong!

Maybe the limited time launch package is the deal/incentive to go for the launch edition this time around instead of future pricing difference between the first R2’s and the lidar equipped vehicles.

 

[Just Passing By]

It was just based on all the deals there were to move out the R1 gen1 stock before R1 gen2 launched.

The context seems like it may be different for R2 because of pent up demand. Rivian have guided to ~25k R2 for 2026, my optimistic estimate is that they could sell up to 37k if the ramp goes well. Either way that's not a lot of vehicles for this vehicle class and other competitors like BMW iX3 50 or the Volvo Ex60 are only likely to be shipping in low numbers into the US in 2026, due to high European demand.

So the question is would Rivian need to drop the 2026 R2 model to clear inventory and make way for 2027 model with LIDAR/RAP1, or would demand still far outstrip supply? For example, customers with low priority, i.e. no R1 prior ownership and way down the reservations list (e.g. me with a January 2025 reservation), may take an R2 Performance or Premium in late 2026/early 2027 without LIDAR/RAP1, or maybe even an R2 Standard in early 2027 without LIDAR/RAP1, rather than wait until much later in 2027 for an R2 with those features.

Time will tell.

 

[Andystroh]

We are too spoiled by how much stuff we can fit in our R1, the r2 is just a backup in case something happens to ours and we can’t afford a new R1.

Also I have never been a new vehicle buyer prior to the R1, I can’t take this depreciation again, maybe a used r2 down the line.

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