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Full Self Driving FSD - Game Changer or Gimmick?

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ChrissyOne

ChrissyOne

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I think people are underestimating the impact of a fleet of self driving, fully autonomous vehicles.

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As for FSD in personal cars, I think the price will drop a lot. As it stands now, what I have in my ID.4 is helpful. Adaptive cruise control and auto lane centering is nice. I am way more rested when I get to my destination that I was without it. But, I wouldn't pay a dime for anything between that and true FSD. Every minor improvement doesn't stop me from having to pay attention. BUT as soon as I don't have to pay attention at all, I would pay for that in a heartbeat.
All of these examples are certainly possible! Fewer of them are likely without complications of their own. None of them make as much sense from a capacity standpoint as a train. And many of them allow for the possibility that they might lead to more total cars.

I'm not going to keep a city bus in my garage. I'm certainly not going to keep "whatever Tesla I end up with that day" there. And if most people wouldn't have a car, why would they have a place for a car? If you operate this service, you have a significant real estate and infrastructure problem to solve, well beyond the current Supercharger footprint. This is of course possible, but it's a pretty big job.
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Scott

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All of these examples are certainly possible! Fewer of them are likely without complications of their own. None of them make as much sense from a capacity standpoint as a train. And many of them allow for the possibility that they might lead to move total cars.

I'm not going to keep a city bus in my garage. I'm certainly not going to keep "whatever Tesla I end up with that day" there. And if most people wouldn't have a car, why would they have a place for a car? If you operate this service, you have a significant real estate and infrastructure problem to solve, well beyond the current Supercharger footprint. This is of course possible, but it's a pretty big job.
For moving long distances between cities, something like a train will likely be more efficient, because the fact that it isn't door to door is less of a problem because the "last mile" is a much smaller percentage of the trip. But for daily city traffic the last mile inconvenience of not being door to door is a big cause for people owning their own cars and being resistant to public transit.

Envision people going to a large office building in the suburbs that has 1000 people that work there. The office is a ~10 minute walk to the subway/light rail station (which you might have to make in the rain or snow), or maybe a short bus ride, that you have to wait for a transfer to. Most of those employees probably have at least a 10 minute walk to a station from their house, or they drive and park at that station.

If instead of doing all of that a comfy, climate controlled car pulled up to your door to pick you up, and then stopped along the way to pick up 4 other people going to the same office I think you would see demand skyrocket. It is quite reasonable that you could take what would be an hour commute on public transit and reduce it to ~30 minutes of sitting and reading a book, and have it be roughly the same price. I think a lot of commuters would sign up for that especially if it meant their family didn't have to pay to own, maintain, and insure a second vehicle. My above scenario could easily take 5 cars off the road and turn them in to 1 automated shuttle.

Yes the company that operates these automated shuttles would have to have lots to park them and charge them at, but so does the city when they operate buses. Trains have to have depots to be serviced, etc etc. The logistics are far from insurmountable.
 
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Yes the company that operates these automated shuttles would have to have lots to park them and charge them at, but so does the city when they operate buses. Trains have to have depots to be serviced, etc etc. The logistics are far from insurmountable.
No, but they're massive - far more massive than building out charging stations. And if you're just operating a fleet van service, well, that already exists, so it's going to have to be way cheaper than a fleet of drivers to make any sense, to cover the additional infrastructure. But yes, I agree it can be done. You're just going to need a lot of real estate.
 

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To go back to the question in the subject of the thread, regardless of the specific details, the average American spends close to 300 hours a year driving. If technology had the ability to replace 300 hours a year of any type of labor with alternative activities, all while increasing safety and likely lowering costs and environmental impact, it would be far from a gimmick. It would be one of the largest transformational changes our society would see in our lifetimes. Getting back 1 hour per person of time per weekday is massive.
 

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So what do you think? Would you pay more for FSD? Or, like crab-walk and tank-turn, is it a parlor trick that you'd do once to show off to friends, and probably never touch again?

Would pay very little extra, certainly not thousands as a lump sum. And likely not more than say $20/month. I donā€™t have a good impression of it yet, donā€™t trust it, canā€™t be sure how it reacts in various situations, etc (today drove past 2 groups of crazy deer; about 25 tightly packed elk trying/waiting to cross right near a roundabout!, and a group of wild turkeys just off the pavement edge).
In 15 years the total package of AI, sensors, processing, protection from hacking, overall robustness will likely have my trust.
Then again Iā€™m retired, drive when and where I like, kinda live in the middle of nowhere - and miss a few fast vehicles from my old European days.. I still really like the act of driving even on long road trip days. I just donā€™t want, need FSD.
But I certainly hope it evolves fast, and fully understand how others could use it right now.
 

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Its not just about road lines, that was one of the issues we are still unable to solve.
Huh? I have FSD beta and it operates almost flawlessly with no road lines and odd markings, or traffic cones. Itā€™s the normal stuff that just isnā€™t smooth. Stopping at stop signs, intersections, creeping forward, and other things arenā€™t very smooth at all and very slow but I can tell you road lines is not really an issue in my experience with FSD beta.

I would go with game changer. We have to start somewhere.
 

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This discussion actually reminded of a recent interview with Ralph Nader I heard on the radio from Science Friday. The audio part starts with 13 minutes and 30 seconds remaining but to summarize:
  • Ralph Nader is skeptical of full self driving and doesn't think the public will see it for years.
  • Has major concerns about security vulnerabilities in software and electronic systems.
  • Believes there must be major updates to the highway systems (signs, paint, etc...)
  • Also has concerns with flawed human-machine interaction (e.g., Toyota unintended acceleration or interacting with people in unpredictable situations).
  • Thinks a "robot" could do much worse in injury due to the above.
  • There are other technologies that can be prioritized today over self-driving for general safety.
  • Public transit is the best "self-transit" and more resources should be focused on mass transit.
Of course being Ralph Nader, his focus is mostly about public safety and not convenience. If interested for other perspectives, look up Tony Seba and his numerous talks on "Clean Disruption" where he outlines much broader implications of self-driving. Tony Seba sees gradual elimination of car ownership, re-purposing parking lots that just occupy space, and even impacts to the economy due to all the disposable income being available.

As for my personal opinion, I'd be willing to pay for Level 3 self-driving and be perfectly content with it since most of my driving is on the freeway. Level 5 or Full Self Driving is a nice idea, and I certainly would like that to become a reality, but I believe there are still many challenges to it.
 

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Huh? I have FSD beta and it operates almost flawlessly with no road lines and odd markings, or traffic cones. Itā€™s the normal stuff that just isnā€™t smooth. Stopping at stop signs, intersections, creeping forward, and other things arenā€™t very smooth at all and very slow but I can tell you road lines is not really an issue in my experience with FSD beta.

I would go with game changer. We have to start somewhere.
The one I drove really struggled in the snow, as a matter of fact most of the time it would not even engage. I think not engaging is a great idea, but the scariest part was that at some point I was cruising on a road that the centerline was almost gone, and instead it picked up on one of those repaired cracks, and basically used it as the point of reference for the center , so it was driving in the middle of the road. Now that transition was smooth, so it was easy to correct with a brake tap and manual intervention.

Everything else being slow was actually a relief, but since it was not my car, my experience was short, but not void of concerns.

I agree we have to start somewhere, and like most other things it will be a gimmick until it's not. I mean touch screen phone were gimmicks until the iphone really. So I expect the same with this.
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