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DucRider

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I should have said... no.... yeah skyote is correct it's 44K.... the leading # was part of the code.... I only removed the last 3 and replaced with ###..
Curious as to why people are hiding part of their number.
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skyote

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July 10, 2020
Order #53297 R1S

I work in databases (not at Rivian), its worth noting that this number is likely an AUTO_INCREMENT on a primary key for all pre-orders. It means:
  • This number is shared between R1T and R1S preorders. Depending on production order, you might 'skip the queue'.
  • This number doesn't reflect canceled pre-orders
  • Rivian may use a different priority?? Up to them.
  • It is an EXACT count of preorders taken (not including refunds).
All true, and excellent points.

We do know that Rivian production priority will be based on how you configure your vehicle, we just don't know what the priority attributes will be (other than one of the larger battery sizes).

The attrition/cancelation variable is an interesting one that could be significant, and one I've been pondering.

I'm also curious whether bulk/fleet order commitments could affect consumer orders.
 
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skyote

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Curious as to why people are hiding part of their number.
Makes them feel better from a privacy perspective. Not statistically material to the dataset though...I've just plugged in "50" for a lot of the "XX" in order to have a point for trending.
 

Jazzyjeff139

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July 10, 2020
Order #53297 R1S

I work in databases (not at Rivian), its worth noting that this number is likely an AUTO_INCREMENT on a primary key for all pre-orders. It means:
  • This number is shared between R1T and R1S preorders. Depending on production order, you might 'skip the queue'.
  • This number doesn't reflect canceled pre-orders
  • Rivian may use a different priority?? Up to them.
  • It is an EXACT count of preorders taken (not including refunds). You should subtract the jumps. Those could be anything, including developer poking with it.
Very good point!! Rivian did say that they would fill the larger battery orders and top trim levels first.
 

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sevengroove

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Dude, if there was 10K attrition by Dec '19, and there is some level of attrition outside of that, then you should be produced in the first year.
Where are you getting that attrition rate from? That is indeed significant. Also should mention I'm in for the R1S and not the truck, so I wonder if that still means production before Aug 2022 ...
 
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Where are you getting that attrition rate from? That is indeed significant. Also should mention I'm in for the R1S and not the truck, so I wonder if that still means production before Aug 2022 ...
There was a media report of 10K preorders as of December 2019. The *gross* number of preorders at that time was just shy of 20K, so there is a possibility that 10K number cited was remaining/active preorders.

It's all speculation, but we definitely know there is attrition & how many might have canceled after the CT reveal in November?
 

DucRider

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Where are you getting that attrition rate from? That is indeed significant. Also should mention I'm in for the R1S and not the truck, so I wonder if that still means production before Aug 2022 ...
This stems from a number stated in an article published in Dec 2109 without any reference to a date in regards to the number of preorders. So an article written at some unknown time (but published in December) with a 10K number from an unnamed source and with no time reference has been treated like an official announcement from Rivian that they had exactly 10,000 orders in December of 2019.
https://store.frost.com/automaker-p...the-automotive-industry-forecast-to-2025.html
It would also actually be totally in character for Rivian to say 10K if they had something like 17K on the books
 

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Makes them feel better from a privacy perspective. Not statistically material to the dataset though...I've just plugged in "50" for a lot of the "XX" in order to have a point for trending.

I try not to be too paranoid... but my new tin foil hat told me these numbers might be important... Seriously, I doubt anyone could do anything nefarious with that number but it's also not important for anyone else to have the exact number. I think having the trend is awesome without anyone feeling too uncomfortable with what they share online.
ok taking my IT security hat back off... so I can drool over pictures of my new SUV.....
 
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skyote

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This stems from a number stated in an article published in Dec 2109 without any reference to a date in regards to the number of preorders. So an article written at some unknown time (but published in December) with a 10K number from an unnamed source and with no time reference has been treated like an official announcement from Rivian that they had exactly 10,000 orders in December of 2019.
https://store.frost.com/automaker-p...the-automotive-industry-forecast-to-2025.html
It would also actually be totally in character for Rivian to say 10K if they had something like 17K on the books
Absent of facts, it's human nature to make assumptions and try to figure things out. We're left with a lot of "if" and "maybe", but I'm OK with that and enjoy considering possibilities.
 

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MattpR1T

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I'm really starting to wonder if there were either some fleet orders (or "artificial"/reset jumps) in December 2019 and May 2020.
Yeah, I was thinking maybe that was a block of the first Amazon Vans.
 
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skyote

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Yeah, I was thinking maybe that was a block of the first Amazon Vans.
Maybe, but I would think those would be accounted for separately from R1T/S preorders. It's anyone's guess at this point...
 

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Thanks I was using inspect element instead of view source code. Can confirm, am an idiot.
I did the same thing first #idiotsunite
 

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Order # 54806
My understanding though is this is just the total number of orders at this point it’s not separated between truck and SUV, is that correct?
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