Current daily production rate

[ironpig]

Quite a bold prediction. The 8k I can see (although I still thing low five digits is feasible) by not getting to 40k until 2023 or 2024. They should be at a run rate of five thousand plus a month by end of 2023 at the latest. We will see how well your prediction ages.

yes. I’m happy to be wrong.

As a stock holder I definitely want to be wrong, but from what I know about the realities of their production issues this year I think 8K next year would be a victory.

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[crashmtb]

production hell

just because Elon said it doesn’t mean it’s a thing.

 

[ironpig]

just because Elon said it doesn’t mean it’s a thing.

I hate Elon. He wasn’t the first to use that phrase just because you may have heard it from him first.

 

[crashmtb]

I hate Elon. He wasn’t the first to use that phrase just because you may have heard it from him first.

Sure - development/production hell is a common phrase in tv/film.

but that clown popularized it in the context of mass production manufacturing, with a different (dumber)meaning.

 

[EVTrucking]

Sure - development/production hell is a common phrase in tv/film.

but that clown popularized it in the context of mass production manufacturing, with a different (dumber)meaning.

You really are ignorant(not meant as an insult) of how things work, especially manufacturing.

Working 60-80hrs/wk, under constant stress and pressure for weeks on end is mostly certainly production hell and it happens all the time. As an engineer for 38+ yrs I have been in production hell all too many times.

Rivian engineers and management are most certainly in production hell and will be for quite some time.

 

[DuckTruck]

lol, now I can't even edit that without confusing people. Obviously meant shipping.

Are you saying your earlier comment was unintentional?

Come on! You're shipping me, aren't you? ?

 

[Sdvictor]

You really are ignorant(not meant as an insult) of how things work, especially manufacturing.

Working 60-80hrs/wk, under constant stress and pressure for weeks on end is mostly certainly production hell and it happens all the time. As an engineer for 38+ yrs I have been in production hell all too many times.

Come on. Nobody ever calls it production hell. It’s just any other day in supply chain struggles with ramping to full production. “Production hell” makes EM sound like he had no fucking clue how supply chains work.

(Source: I used to manage a factory for a tech company and did production ramps. I also used to run a supply chain strategy team. I currently run a transition planning process that manages NPI planning and execution process. )

 

[SeaGeo]

no way. They Are dealing with production hell AND a supply shortage. They will be lucky to deliver 8000 trucks next year. They won’t hit 40k a year until 3rd year at earliest. They know it but they can’t say it.

Better cancel your reservation then, because they won't be in business by 2024 then.

While you're at it, you should probably file a complaint against them for misleading investors in the S-1 filings and quarterly call.

 

[ironpig]

Sure - development/production hell is a common phrase in tv/film.

but that clown popularized it in the context of mass production manufacturing, with a different (dumber)meaning.

Better cancel your reservation then, because they won't be in business by 2024 then.

Why would I cancel my reservation? That’s not how this industry works. They won’t be profitable for many years. The only people who matter are the large shareholders and they know they aren’t going to deliver 40 or 50k trucks next year. Everyone who understands the situation knows that.

 

[crashmtb]

You really are ignorant(not meant as an insult) of how things work, especially manufacturing.

You’re quite wrong there.

Assuming you’re an American PE, so I can’t point to the iron ring on your finger constricting the flow of blood to the brain. ?

Come on. Nobody ever calls it production hell. It’s just any other day in supply chain struggles with ramping to full production. “Production hell” makes EM sound like he had no fucking clue how supply chains work.

(Source: I used to manage a factory for a tech company and did production ramps. I also used to run a supply chain strategy team. I currently run a transition planning process that manages NPI planning and execution process. )

Exactly. It’s just production. It’s how it works. It’s how any new thing works.

 

[SeaGeo]

Why would I cancel my reservation? That’s not how this industry works. They won’t be profitable for many years. The only people who matter are the large shareholders and they know they aren’t going to deliver 40 or 50k trucks next year. Everyone who understands the situation knows that.

I didn't say they would be profitable. Investors will absolutely hammer them if they deliver 5k in 2022, and then follow up with less than 30k in 2023. They'll have functionally no revenue, won't have backers for private funding at thst level of failure to execute, and the stock will bail.

And nobody is saying they're likely to deliver 50k. Rivian isn't saying that. You're the only one saying 5k. And you are saying they won't hit 30k annualized until 2024. And you're saying Rivian knows that but aren't saying it. Which is literally fraud.

Speculate extremely low numbers based on your guesses, that's fine. But suggesting the company is completing fraud is just stupid.

 

[SeaGeo]

Assuming you’re an American PE, so I can’t point to the iron ring on your finger constricting the flow of blood to the brain.

Hey now. You'd be surprised how many of us have adopted that from the 51st State. ?

 

[EVTrucking]

Come on. Nobody ever calls it production hell. It’s just any other day in supply chain struggles with ramping to full production. “Production hell” makes EM sound like he had no fucking clue how supply chains work.

(Source: I used to manage a factory for a tech company and did production ramps. I also used to run a supply chain strategy team. I currently run a transition planning process that manages NPI planning and execution process. )

You are saying that there is a production hell but it is not called that?

We must live on different planets because I know it is called production hell and it most certainly exists. To be clear production hell is not a typical period with normal manufacturing challenges.

 

[ironpig]

I didn't say they would be profitable. Investors will absolutely hammer them if they deliver 5k in 2022, and then follow up with less than 30k in 2023. They'll have functionally no revenue, won't have backers for private funding at thst level of failure to execute, and the stock will bail.

And nobody is saying they're likely to deliver 50k. Rivian isn't saying that. You're the only one saying 5k. And you are saying they won't hit 30k annualized until 2024. And you're saying Rivian knows that but aren't saying it. Which is literally fraud.

Speculate extremely low numbers based on your guesses, that's fine. But suggesting the company is completing fraud is just stupid.

Yes. i have consistently said between 5k -8K next year and 30k by year 3. Across many posts.

you can bookmark this and come back to it next December. Everyone has their Educated guesses (or uneducated wild speculation in some of your cases) and nobody knows for sure. I’ll be happy to be wrong. But I trust the info I have gotten and it has been right so far this year.

 

[crashmtb]

Hey now. You'd be surprised how many of us have adopted that from the 51st State. ?

With the weird ceremony and all? ?

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