Buy !

[EVTrucking]

I think it will drop further, well below the IPO price. This is a long term play.

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[mkg3]

As someone already mentioned, the combination of CES announcements for all the new EVs and EV trucks in particular, combined with Amazon purchase of eVans from Stallatis has turned the sentiment downwards.

These news, on the surface, may appear to be a significant negative/headwind for Rivian, but in reality, it may turnout to be a distraction and bunch of knee jerk reactions by traders (and any one that has trailing stop sell order less than 20%).

I do agree that Rivian is not buy and hold stock right now. I bought 200 shares this morning around 78/share and probably will sell around 100/share when it recovers. Maybe more because my average cost right now is around 88/share.

I do believe next week, things will settle down for Rivian until Tesla announcement of CT update at their earnings. Then another volatilities for a week or so.

At this early stage, Rivian shares are not for the weak stomach or risk averse holders, I believe...

 

[Tim-in-CA]

Just bought 60 more shares. Don’t want to miss out on the longer term upside.

 

[sierraskier]

I mean if you didn't know this was going to happen, you have your head in the sand. Being first to market with an EV truck, you had to know that all the legacy truck makers weren't going to just let that happen to their largest revenue stream without any response. And Amazon was going to just rely on one single startup manufacturer for their electric delivery strategy? No way. It's just the perfect storm of news.

Still, they have the ONLY EV truck on the market and the ONLY truck (ICE or EV) that:

• does 0-60 3sec
• has a 3' wading depth
• handles like a sportscar
• looks different and good and with a luxury interior

The Ford Lightning still looks like a Ford - tired and boring.

All that said, they do need to ramp production.

 

[Monkey]

If the quiet period is over, it seems Rivian would drop some good news on us. Hopefully there are deliveries being made, we just don't know where, except to employees.

A handful of R1T's prepping for delivery in Denver. I know for sure at least one of them is not for an employee as I know the guy getting it. I think Monday is the day, but he's already stopped by to see it.

The trucks are slowly trickling out and the factory line was mostly shut down from Christmas until this week.

Ramp ups take time and we're dealing with supply chain hell and pandemic craziness not to mention battery constraints. Even the seasoned veteran automakers are doing no better. GM produced just 17 Hummer EVs up through last week and delivered only one Hummer EV before the end of the year. Ford sent out its first wave of invites for the F-150 Lightning today, fleet customers got their first invites yesterday. I have no idea where my fleet order stands and my personal order is also in limbo. My personal lightning reservation is #11 in line at my dealership. They got just one allocation for the first wave. 5 more waves to go, but even though I reserved in the first few minutes, I probably won't get one of those trucks until 2023.

 

[Daedalus]

Not much of an investor in the stock market (except for my 401k) - that said, I contemplated purchasing the stock based on the initial offer from rivian (since I preordered in September) but didn't - so my loss. I do want to see Rivian meet/exceed its delivery targets before I consider any investment, even with the stock currently close/at IPO prices.

With competition heating up (Volvo, Hyundai Ford, GMC, etc), I think they need to demonstrate their ability to ramp (quickly) and a design compelling followup EV for mass market adoption (similar to Tesla Model 3) now that they set a quality benchmark with the R1S/R1T flagship vehicles.

 

[mkg3]

I mean if you didn't know this was going to happen, you have your head in the sand. Being first to market with an EV truck, you had to know that all the legacy truck makers weren't going to just let that happen to their largest revenue stream without any response. And Amazon was going to just rely on one single startup manufacturer for their electric delivery strategy? No way. It's just the perfect storm of news.

Still, they have the ONLY EV truck on the market and the ONLY truck (ICE or EV) that:

• does 0-60 3sec
• has a 3' wading depth
• handles like a sportscar
• looks different and good and with a luxury interior

The Ford Lightning still looks like a Ford - tired and boring.

All that said, they do need to ramp production.

They do have a compelling offerings but as a business, they have to excuse and turn the offering into profitable revenues.

They are long ways from profit but they need to show the trajectory headed in that direction within timeframe they have articulated.

 

[mkg3]

....I think they need to demonstrate their ability to ramp (quickly) and a design compelling followup EV for mass market adoption (similar to Tesla Model 3) now that they set a quality benchmark with the R1S/R1T flagship vehicles.

Its more appropriate to compare the R1 series to Model S/X, than Model 3/Y.

At the price range they are today and surely headed north in coming months, they'll not likely sell close to million vehicles a year. What Rivian needs to do, aside from executing on the current commitments, is to bring out R2 series for mass market at the light speed.

Only then, we can start to compare to other EVs made for mass market.

 

[cc84]

.... I know for sure at least one of them is not for an employee as I know the guy getting it......

Thanks. That makes two that will have received delivery that I know about. Do you think your friend would be willing to give his pre-order date, if he paid the quoted website price, what the membership will cost, once the trial period ends and last, what was his estimated delivery time frame? Dec/Jan, or Jan/Feb...... Quite alright if neither of you are able to respond. It's curiosity on my part and not a need to know. I don't believe the other Rivian non-employee recipient has released this information either.

I guess with Rivian, "No news is good news." It doesn't seem to be reflecting well on their stock price though.

 

[Monkey]

Thanks. That makes two that will have received delivery that I know about. Do you think your friend would be willing to give his pre-order date, if he paid the quoted website price, what the membership will cost, once the trial period ends and last, what was his estimated delivery time frame? Dec/Jan, or Jan/Feb...... Quite alright if neither of you are able to respond. It's curiosity on my part and not a need to know. I don't believe the other Rivian non-employee recipient has released this information either.

I guess with Rivian, "No news is good news." It doesn't seem to be reflecting well on their stock price though.

There are quite a few more non-employee deliveries out there. I've seen a few pop up on other social media. And many don't go posting about it and our membership here is a very small cross-section. And from what I've seen on FB and IG social postings, the couple who post quickly go dark because of the amount of crazy they receive. I get it... I was one of the first Model X's delivered in CO and one of the first few hundred out in the wild. Having the car was awesome, but people suck. I didn't post about my X online anywhere, other than comments in the Tesla forum along with the few others to say that I had taken delivery.

My friend is not a member here and avoids most social media. I'll invite him to share if he wants.

For now, I can tell you that like the other non-employees who have reported such things, he's paying exactly what is priced out in his online configuration, plus the required tax and license fees -- not sure how much, if any, tax is collected by Rivian, but this varies by location. Here in CO, we're a home-rule state so every city/county, etc.. has their own tax rate to confuse and muddle things. Most car dealers just collect state tax and then let the buyer settle up with their local city and county when registering the vehicle. Or at least that's how all my vehicle purchases seem to work out. I don't know about membership subscription pricing, not sure if he does yet. Free for the first year though... The other non-employee recipient on these forums has said he's paid what was shown in his account as he configured it.

He made his reservation really early, might have been in person at the first trade show appearance. But I don't know when/where. He just said he made the reservation as soon as they started taking them. He was contacted by Rivian CS originally saying he might get delivery in December. Then they pushed to January. When LE emails came out his still said January.

Aside from that, he's a LE R1T in Launch Green with black interior and off-road package / 20" wheels and I don't know more than that.

 

[TDWRT1]

Back to IPO PRICE . Buy buy buy

IN! ..at the IPO price.

 

[cc84]

......My friend is not a member here and avoids most social media. I'll invite him to share if he wants......

Thanks very much for your detailed reply. Your friend will be very happy Monday and so far it seems Rivian may be on schedule, at least for a while.

 

[Biturbowned]

I took a small position today too. I didn’t buy in pre-IPO because the price seemed heavy to me at the time. To be clear, it still feels heavy to me and I feel personally that there’s about as much downside risk as upside risk at my cost basis, so I’ll take bites going forward if it drops 10%. Crazy multiples on EV stocks these days, so party on.

 

[LeoH]

I'm sure you wish we would all do that. Still has a ways to drop....

They need to make a global Model Y competitor if they want to survive. You can't have that valuation selling niche lifestyle trucks.

Why the model Y? The starting price for that low quality vehicle is 60K, before you add anything with a 5 seat config, 318mil range. So the R1S at 70K -7.5K EV tax is 62.5K with 316mil range, that is a much much better value than the model Y, buy all means available. There is absolutely no reason to get the Y over the R1S unless you want a smaller vehicle. At that point though there are other EVs with better build quality available. The R1S is actually a competitor to the X, which it also beats on many fronts.

To your point, yes they need a global vehicle, and R1S is the best electric SUV so far at a good price range, so they just have to push that, and it should be rolling soon. They are also building another plant Georgia, so I do not see the hiccup.

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