2024 and 2025 will be about rationing news tidbits

[carsly]

With the covers off of R2 and R3, there is about 24 months of calendar to fill before R2 begins to roll off the lines in Normal. Between here and there Rivian needs to maintain momentum, and I'm thinking a lot of the tapdance will be around rationing news morsels to feed the investor and consumer masses. Here is a rough calendar based on nothing other than my imagination:

1. Late March 2024 - NACS access is finally here! Adapters begin shipping soon.
2. Late April 2024 - R1 line update complete, xx% cost savings per vehicle
3. May 2024 - oh, and we added a few new features to R1 during the line refresh
4. Aug 2024 - Peregrine full refresh of R1? Guessing new front fascia, better interior seat material options, steel roof option (maybe that's a hope), more efficient Enduros motors, heat pump (finally), functional wireless charging pads
5. Sept 2024 - those NACS adapters are getting out, R1 Youtube charging tests ensue
6. Oct 2024 - oh, Quad Enduro R1X is available. 1,200 HP, 1,000+ lb-ft of torque and it only comes with the Max Pack (which is now cheaper and has added capacity). It's $109K and a limited edition - limited to how many we can sell. See Hummer EV SUV.
7. Dec 2024 - holiday software update! Which includes Netflix, YouTube. Billing for wireless starts in 2025 at $100/yr or $9.99/mo (see Tesla)
8. Jan 2025 - NACS is now built in to R1 for Model Year 2025 vehicles (which started leaking as they began shipping in Dec 2024).
9. Feb 2025 - Driver+ updates
10. April 2025 - did someone say Camp Kitchen? We finally shipped it. And more accessories including snap-in shades for the pano roof glass (again, see Tesla). Enjoy your spring/summer adventuring.
11. May 2025 - all model year 2025 R1's are software updated to reach a peak charge rate of 250kw to take full advantage of Tesla V3 superchargers
12. June-Oct 2025 - we begin to see camo R2 mules testing around the globe (again, see Tesla Cybertruck)
13. Nov 2025-Feb 2026 - some car reviewers get "first looks" at R2. See the Volvo EX90 and Porsche Macan EV reviews.
14. March - April 2026 - car reviewer 'test drives' of pre-production R2 prototypes, R2 seen testing at Moab, in the Sequoias and other forests/adverturey places
15. May - June 2026 - R2 delivery event, it's here!

YMMV, but I'm thinking something like the above. Sprinkle in a few R3 camo mule sightings, some new service center opening, a handful of RANs, a few big EDV orders and maybe some new R1 variants (no camp speaker, air compressor, etc. and save $5K on a new package).

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[SilverII]

You forgot

Feb 2024 - Apple buys Rivian

 

[Rivian_Hugh_III]

With the covers off of R2 and R3, there is about 24 months of calendar to fill before R2 begins to roll off the lines in Normal. Between here and there Rivian needs to maintain momentum, and I'm thinking a lot of the tapdance will be around rationing news morsels to feed the investor and consumer masses. Here is a rough calendar based on nothing other than my imagination:

1. Late March 2024 - NACS access is finally here! Adapters begin shipping soon.
2. Late April 2024 - R1 line update complete, xx% cost savings per vehicle
3. May 2024 - oh, and we added a few new features to R1 during the line refresh
4. Aug 2024 - Peregrine full refresh of R1? Guessing new front fascia, better interior seat material options, steel roof option (maybe that's a hope), more efficient Enduros motors, heat pump (finally), functional wireless charging pads
5. Sept 2024 - those NACS adapters are getting out, R1 Youtube charging tests ensue
6. Oct 2024 - oh, Quad Enduro R1X is available. 1,200 HP, 1,000+ lb-ft of torque and it only comes with the Max Pack (which is now cheaper and has added capacity). It's $109K and a limited edition - limited to how many we can sell. See Hummer EV SUV.
7. Dec 2024 - holiday software update! Which includes Netflix, YouTube. Billing for wireless starts in 2025 at $100/yr or $9.99/mo (see Tesla)
8. Feb 2025 - Driver+ updates
9. April 2025 - did someone say Camp Kitchen? We finally shipped it. And more accessories including snap-in shades for the pano roof glass (again, see Tesla). Enjoy your spring/summer adventuring.
10. June-Oct 2025 - we begin to see camo R2 mules testing around the globe (again, see Tesla Cybertruck)
11. Nov 2025-Feb 2026 - some car reviewers get "first looks" at R2. See the Volvo EX90 and Porsche Macan EV reviews.
12. March - April 2026 - car reviewer 'test drives' of pre-production R2 prototypes, R2 seen testing at Moab, in the Sequoias and other forests/adverturey places
13. May - June 2026 - R2 delivery event, it's here!

YMMV, but I'm thinking something like the above. Sprinkle in a few R3 camo mule sightings, some new service center opening, a handful of RANs, a few big EDV orders and maybe some new R1 variants (no camp speaker, air compressor, etc. and save $5K on a new package).

 

[Dark-Fx]

Oct 2024 - oh, Quad Enduro R1X is available. 1,200 HP, 1,000+ lb-ft of torque and it only comes with the Max Pack (which is now cheaper and has added capacity). It's $109K and a limited edition - limited to how many we can sell. See Hummer EV SUV.

I can't believe you're making me wait a whole 7 more months!

 

[carsly]

You forgot

Feb 2024 - Apple buys Rivian

Unless it happened on Feb 30, 2024 I'm not sure that happened, or will ever happen. If Apple wanted to buy Rivian they would have done so months/years ago. Runs against their culture and fiscal discipline.

No public company wants to buy another public company in need of a turnaround UNLESS they operate in the identical space and can immediately take out 30-40% of the costs. Do strange things happen? Absolutely. And think what you will of Tim Cook and the Apple board but since Steve's passing they have been anything but reckless with acquisitions.

 

[moosehead]

Add a capital injection since RJ successfully raised it yesterday even before R3 rolled out, replacement powered tonneau covers, and Apple Carplay!

Bonus we’ll see some stick on hood vents and chrome exhaust tips from one of our ambitious aftermarket providers.

I kid, I kid. Sorta.

 

[jjswan33]

Nice set of speculation and is really all fluff as far as real investors are concerned.

Only one thing is really going to matter... margins on R1... if they can get positive by year end as they have guided then Rivian will be ok otherwise it's going to be a bumpy ride to R2 so lets hope the suspension doesn't break on the road.

 

[R1Thor]

Nice set of speculation and is really all fluff as far as real investors are concerned.

Only one thing is really going to matter... margins on R1... if they can get positive by year end as they have guided then Rivian will be ok otherwise it's going to be a bumpy ride to R2 so lets hope the suspension doesn't break on the road.

Correct.

Rivian has said ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about a refresh. AND, given everything they're vying for, I'd bet dollars to donuts, anything 'refreshed' will be for, and only for, a cost savings near term.
There was one post by one dude who swore he heard something from a service tech.

So, everyone still insisting on "peregrine" and 'refreshed R1" and "ascent trim" should probably stop. You're creating echo chambers within echo chambers.

Factually, you don't release a 'better' version of anything when you're trying to drum up excitement for your next line of vehicles. It's dangerous enough given this 'limbo' they're going to be in where people are happy to wait for the R2 and R3. Rivian will likely, and should just stay the course.

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