Georgia Plant Changes Impact R3 Production (2029-2030)?

[Gen(R3)Xer]

What are your predictions about the Georgia Plant and Rivian’s production schedule? Will this impact your EV purchase(s) in the near future? When will Rivian start exporting overseas? I’ve watching a lot of UK-based EV enthusiasts and they’re pumped to get the R2.

At one point the Rivian Georgia Plant was going to be a 2,000-acre facility that would employ 7,500 people. It was supposed to be a two phase build with an annual production capacity of 400,000 vehicles using a $6.6 billion DOE loan.

Fast forward several years past the lawsuits, tariffs, and a certain individual’s anti-EV agenda, and now it’s a one phase build with an annual production capacity of 300,000 vehicles using a $4.5 billion DOE loan. This was supposedly done to speed up the process and access the funds before they were lost. I’m not sure how big this new facility will be or how many people it will employ, but I’m happy it’s getting built despite the odds.

Anyway, according to the quote below, Rivian’s midsize vehicle platform (R2 and R3X/R3) will begin production at the Georgia Plant in late 2028. Based on the R2 rollout (employees first, then current Rivian owners, R3X performance model first, etc.) I think the majority of people wanting an R3X will probably have to wait until 2029 and people wanting an R3 will probably have to wait until 2030, especially since they haven’t even started taking preorders. My guess is pre-orders will happen in late 2026/early 2027, or about 2 years before they ship, just like the R2 (preorder in Spring 2024 and ship in Spring 2026).

"We made the strategic decision to increase the production capacity for the first phase of our Georgia plant by 50%, bringing it to 300,000 units of annual production capacity" (CEO Scaringe), and "we remain on track for the production of our midsized vehicle platform to begin in Georgia in late 2028."

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[savethemanual]

I think what's disappointing from Rivian is that it's not made clear what the current plan is. As you suggest in the title, scaled down or up? Just be forthcoming with your plans and don't leave it so ambiguous that everyone has to speculate & start rumors.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

It’s true. Honestly I think they’re just taking a wait and see approach, so they can pivot to whatever they need to based on the current conditions, which seem to change weekly. It’s easier to have a plan when the country you’re operating out of is stable and not trying to constantly upset the markets and supply chains.

But speculating about new stuff can be fun. It’s one of the only things you can do on a forum while waiting for a product to come out. I also don’t think speculating is the same thing as starting rumors. It’s someone’s opinion, not fact. And if you don’t like speculating you don’t have to participate. Pretty simple.

 

[Cosworth]

I think what's disappointing from Rivian is that it's not made clear what the current plan is. As you suggest in the title, scaled down or up? Just be forthcoming with your plans and don't leave it so ambiguous that everyone has to speculate & start rumors.

I think people will find reasons to be disappointed no matter what's done. They could provide a fully detailed plan, and then people would get upset if/when it changes, or they could keep their cards close to their chest and have people upset that they're not sharing what could absolutely have some flexibility/changes to it over the years.
That being said, would I like my R3X TODAY? Sure! But I also want them to do what's best financially so they -can- get to the point of having an R3X for the niche/enthusiast market.

On a side note, I was shopping for carpet today and spotted a little something that caught my eye

 

[savethemanual]

I think people will find reasons to be disappointed no matter what's done. They could provide a fully detailed plan, and then people would get upset if/when it changes, or they could keep their cards close to their chest and have people upset that they're not sharing what could absolutely have some flexibility/changes to it over the years.

Sure, I hear you. If you listened to the earnings call, there's more context....they gave non answers for nearly all the questions, it was comical.

 

[VSG]

"We made the strategic decision to increase the production capacity for the first phase of our Georgia plant by 50%, bringing it to 300,000 units of annual production capacity" (CEO Scaringe)

I don't see how this can be interpreted as a scaling back.
He specifically says that the "first phase" is going to be 300k instead of 200k as originally planned. That indicates a anticipated need for more production capacity sooner than expected.
If anything, this indicates an acceleration in the production schedule.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I don't see how this can be interpreted as a scaling back.
He specifically says that the "first phase" is going to be 300k instead of 200k as originally planned. That indicates a anticipated need for more production capacity sooner than expected.
If anything, this indicates an acceleration in the production schedule.

I think more than one of these things can be true at the same time:

1) they have increased the initial production capacity based on US demand expectations and/or the Uber deal timeline

2) they have reduced the long term production at the Georgia plant to offshore production of vehicles bound for Europe.

3) they still have an eventual target of 400k at the Georgia plant and simply focused on highlighting the increased initial capacity.

4) they are being more responsible about their growth ramp based on changes to the automotive market in the last 18 months and want to demonstrate consistent demand before expanding manufacturing capacity

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Predictions, without insider info, are like predicting lottery numbers. It's a complete waste of time. Spend more time on what is actually said instead of guessing what is not said—which is neither meaningful nor impactful.

It has already been said R3 won't arrive until 2028 at the earliest. It's also been said GA will begin operations sometime in 2028. Given size and scale of plans for the plant, it's a given it will contribute to Rivian's total production significantly. It's also a given that once ANY manufacturing plant becomes operation, there will be a phase of production ramp up; from a conservative measured pace, up to a higher pace that attempts to meet demand (one that does not over-match demand and result in surplus of unsold cars, because spending more than what you take in in revenue is bad business).

And when any manufacturer say their planned future facility has X amount capacity, it doesn't mean that is the number they will produce. It only means they estimate it has ability to produce that number, at maximum speed, if they decide there is enough demand and business case to operate that max capacity.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

I don't see how this can be interpreted as a scaling back.
He specifically says that the "first phase" is going to be 300k instead of 200k as originally planned. That indicates a anticipated need for more production capacity sooner than expected.
If anything, this indicates an acceleration in the production schedule.

Ah, I see. So phase 2 is still on the table. It’s just not happening as soon as expected. Get the money for phase 1. Sounds good.

 

[VandalSibs]

Which is exactly what they stated in the shareholder deck.

 

[lefkonj]

Your statements are just guesses. I don't think Rivian knows yet what the plans are with regards to the R3 and scaling for R2. If the R2 sees the demand they want then yes the Georgia plant will do lots of R2s, including exports to Europe. If the demand isn't there then R3 might get fast tracked. No one knows because it hasn't started yet.

When Rivian said the R2 was going to be built in Normal, people said the R1 was dead. That wasn't the case just people guessing.

 

[SolidTHX1138]

Other than the building of the factories, Rivian seems to take a long time from unveiling to availability. I honestly thought last March the R2 would be available. As of now, we were told Spring, late Spring, but don't know what that really mean. Configuration is not available, at least to the public. My kids keep asking me when are we going to get the new car, I said "I hope before Summer," but I don't really know.

I do wish Rivian can pull in the R3X to Normal plant to get it out sooner in 2027. Overall, it seems like Rivian is making a good product but seems to be 12 - 18 months late to market for all their products. If the R2 was out before the $7500 credit went away, they would have had a backlog for months, just like the Tesla MY in 2020.

Other than that, I wish there was some update on R3X from Rivian. I have plans to buy LE R2, R3X, and (R3 or used R1).

 

[R2dreamer]

Other than the building of the factories, Rivian seems to take a long time from unveiling to availability. I honestly thought last March the R2 would be available. As of now, we were told Spring, late Spring, but don't know what that really mean. Configuration is not available, at least to the public. My kids keep asking me when are we going to get the new car, I said "I hope before Summer," but I don't really know.

I do wish Rivian can pull in the R3X to Normal plant to get it out sooner in 2027. Overall, it seems like Rivian is making a good product but seems to be 12 - 18 months late to market for all their products. If the R2 was out before the $7500 credit went away, they would have had a backlog for months, just like the Tesla MY in 2020.

Other than that, I wish there was some update on R3X from Rivian. I have plans to buy LE R2, R3X, and (R3 or used R1).

Unless you are an R1 owner I doubt you will get an R2 this year (my opinion only). Employees first, R1 owners second, everyone else follows. When did you place your pre-order? Being willing to buy the LE R2 may help a bit. Once you get it then the kids will be asking “Are we there yet?”

 

[SolidTHX1138]

Unless you are an R1 owner I doubt you will get an R2 this year (my opinion only). Employees first, R1 owners second, everyone else follows. When did you place your pre-order? Being willing to buy the LE R2 may help a bit. Once you get it then the kids will be asking “Are we there yet?”

I placed my reservation with within minutes of opening in March 7, 2024. I also live close to Normal, IL and I was under the impression delivery distance would be a factor too. I would be willing to pick up at Normal if it means I get R2 sooner. I hope someone from Rivian is reading this.

Oh yeah, and I'm paying cash for my R2, thanks to selling all my Tesla stocks I've holding and accumulating since 2016. Thanks Elon.

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