As you might have guessed.... higher gas prices has increased interest in EVs [ADMIN WARNING: NO POLITICS]

[stormbreaker]

Saw this on cnn

Why $4 gas won’t spark an EV buying spree

This article was clearly written with bias. When the author says that gas prices aren't enough to switch to EV is insane. Granted the population has been groomed for a very long time against change, and luddites are everywhere with extremely loud voices.

But I guess in my highly educated circle in new england, if ppl are in the market for a new ride, they are certainly going for at least a hybrid or outright EV.

Gas burners for the average person near me quickly makes zero sense.

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[White Shadow]

As battery materials and manufacturing advance, the price of batteries will continue to decrease. EVs have fewer parts, so as manufacturing becomes commoditized and further scale, the EVs will become much cheaper to make. Eventually the decision for the consumer will be: I can get this awesome $25k new EV, or a similarly specd $50k new gasoline car. This is how EV wins in the end. It wont be the buyer deciding to change to EV, it will be the buyer wanting a high quality car at a lower price.

Do you really think we'll see a $25k EV that is similarly equipped to a $50k ICEV? Because right now, it's more the opposite. If EVs get to half the price compared to ICEV, then they'd sell like hotcakes. I just don't see that happening.

 

[White Shadow]

This article was clearly written with bias. When the author says that gas prices aren't enough to switch to EV is insane. Granted the population has been groomed for a very long time against change, and luddites are everywhere with extremely loud voices.

But I guess in my highly educated circle in new england, if ppl are in the market for a new ride, they are certainly going for at least a hybrid or outright EV.

Gas burners for the average person near me quickly makes zero sense.

I agree with what was written in the article. For gas prices to truly have an impact on EV sales, we'd need to see massive and prolonged price increases. What we've seen so far is a few weeks of increases and ultimately about a dollar rise in prices. That's not going to move the needle. Why? Because people generally aren't stupid. They understand the math. Just do the math in your head on making a decision to switch from ICE to EV BECAUSE of gas prices and it will be easy to realize that just the costs associated with purchasing an EV (or any vehicle, for that matter) will offset a lot of gas money. I had this same discussion years ago with my cousin who wanted to trade in his SUV for a sedan because it would save him money on gas. Then he realized that the tax bill alone on the sedan was equal to about two years of gas costs for his old SUV. When he did the math, it just didn't make sense.

 

[SANZC02]

I agree with what was written in the article. For gas prices to truly have an impact on EV sales, we'd need to see massive and prolonged price increases. What we've seen so far is a few weeks of increases and ultimately about a dollar rise in prices. That's not going to move the needle. Why? Because people generally aren't stupid. They understand the math. Just do the math in your head on making a decision to switch from ICE to EV BECAUSE of gas prices and it will be easy to realize that just the costs associated with purchasing an EV (or any vehicle, for that matter) will offset a lot of gas money. I had this same discussion years ago with my cousin who wanted to trade in his SUV for a sedan because it would save him money on gas. Then he realized that the tax bill alone on the sedan was equal to about two years of gas costs for his old SUV. When he did the math, it just didn't make sense.

I agree, the numbers will not add up. I say the same thing when people trade in because it is out of Warrenty. Very hard to show a real savings doing that in reality, especially here in SoCal. When you factor in the additional cost for the new vehicle, sales tax, VLF (Vehicle License Fee which is .65% of cost that depreciates 10% a year for 10 years), interest paid if a loan or interest lost if paying cash. That would cover a lot of repairs.

I would say if savings is in the purchase decision matrix not sure how anyone would be able to justify buying any new car.

 

[White Shadow]

I agree, the numbers will not add up. I say the same thing when people trade in because it is out of Warrenty. Very hard to show a real savings doing that in reality, especially here in SoCal. When you factor in the additional cost for the new vehicle, sales tax, VLF (Vehicle License Fee which is .65% of cost that depreciates 10% a year for 10 years), interest paid if a loan or interest lost if paying cash. That would cover a lot of repairs.

I would say if savings is in the purchase decision matrix not sure how anyone would be able to justify buying any new car.

Yeah, buying any new car just because of rising gas prices rarely makes any sense. But I guess we'll see how high the prices get and how long they'll stay high. Could be a long time, you never know.

 

[Great Gatsby]

I agree with what was written in the article. For gas prices to truly have an impact on EV sales, we'd need to see massive and prolonged price increases. What we've seen so far is a few weeks of increases and ultimately about a dollar rise in prices. That's not going to move the needle. Why? Because people generally aren't stupid. They understand the math. Just do the math in your head on making a decision to switch from ICE to EV BECAUSE of gas prices and it will be easy to realize that just the costs associated with purchasing an EV (or any vehicle, for that matter) will offset a lot of gas money. I had this same discussion years ago with my cousin who wanted to trade in his SUV for a sedan because it would save him money on gas. Then he realized that the tax bill alone on the sedan was equal to about two years of gas costs for his old SUV. When he did the math, it just didn't make sense.

I see what you're saying but would add two things.

1) Is not about the $1 increase, it's also about the wild fluctuation. Gas prices are notoriously not stable. War, natural disasters, seasonality - you name it. It takes next to nothing to cause them to spike. People do not not like this. For me personally, this is what got me looking at EVs as a serious alternative.

2) Used EVs are a steal. No, seriously. You can find low-mileage great conditions EVs for $20k or less. If you go $30k or less, we are talking luxury or high performance vehicles. And most are still very much under warranty.

I get I'm biased as an EV owner, but if all my cars disappeared tomorrow and I had to buy something to get around, I don't see how a gas car seems appealing in the long term. Or alternatively, I'm currently driving my ICE as my primary car. The $140-$180 it cost me to fuel it a month compared to an EV would make me consider getting something nicer while not necessarily increasing my budget that much with the savings. Just depends how you frame it.

 

[skyguyscott]

I suspect the most likely scenario where the current gas situation will influence a buying decision is one in which the potential buyer is already in the market for a new vehicle, and has already contemplated going electric for a number of reasons. This might be an extra nudge.

For the average person, the current situation might get them curious enough to do an online search just to see what the numbers are, and then do some math, but few will be compelled to purchase, and those that do might buy used to make the numbers work -- unless these gas prices continue to rise and stay there for the rest of the year.

In terms of where fuel costs really impact the bottom line, consider commercial trucking and delivery. Given the many benefits of EVs in terms of maintenance, etc., I wonder why EVs have not made more inroads there. Is it the lack of charging infrastructure, the lack of vehicles (Where's Tesla's Semi?),is the purchase too much of a paradigm shift, or something else? Rivian's EDV is there for Amazon, but I don't see too many other companies expressing interest, although Rivian has some real competition in that space.

 

[Ilovejunebugs]

I've had people (including our ups driver) ask me about my experience with ev's this past week, due to the increase in gas prices. They've all been genuinely curious and we're going to drive some this weekend. I'll ask them this week how that went.
I'm surprised, however, how few of them know what Rivian is (even though they've seen both my r1ts they had no idea who made them) and how heavily influenced they are by misinformation such as evs don't work in winter, etc.

 

[mkg3]

...2) Used EVs are a steal. No, seriously. You can find low-mileage great conditions EVs for $20k or less. If you go $30k or less, we are talking luxury or high performance vehicles. And most are still very much under warranty....

We don't talk about this enough. The depreciation for EVs are so large/significant, it is one of the major drawbacks for people wanting buy EVs. While most ICEV/PHEV/Hybrids see roughly 35~40% depreciation in 3 years, EVs see 50~60% over the same period.

For the first time, I am looking to buy 2 yrs old Taycan with low milage (less than 10k miles) at the near half the price of MSRP to replace my Model 3. Never have bough a used vehicle but the pricing is so crazy that I'm strongly considering it as a daily driver.

 

[Great Gatsby]

We don't talk about this enough. The depreciation for EVs are so large/significant, it is one of the major drawbacks for people wanting buy EVs. While most ICEV/PHEV/Hybrids see roughly 35~40% depreciation in 3 years, EVs see 50~60% over the same period.

For the first time, I am looking to buy 2 yrs old Taycan with low milage (less than 10k miles) at the near half the price of MSRP to replace my Model 3. Never have bough a used vehicle but the pricing is so crazy that I'm strongly considering it as a daily driver.

Agreed. I remember buying my first “real” car and it was an Infiniti G37 that I bought used for $21k. Now I can get a Mach-E GT/Model Y performance for around that same price. Younger me would have likely done some really stupid stuff with that kind of performance

This may change soon, though. I’m always looking at the used EV market and a lot of them are getting eaten up right now. If gas prices remain this high, this may potentially be another lift to stabilize the awful depreciation on EVs.

If gas hits $4 a gallon and stay there for the national average, I don’t see used EVs remaining a bargain for the long term.

 

[mkg3]

...If gas hits $4 a gallon and stay there for the national average, I don’t see used EVs remaining a bargain for the long term.

Just yesterday, I filled up one of my vehicles for $5.95/gal at Costco gas. We've not seen any gas prices lower than $4/gal for couple of years where I am.

Everything I've seen, read and have heard say that hybrids and PHEV sales are climbing but not EV or pure ICEV. This year, so far EV sales are 5% of total vehicle sales whereas it was 8% last year. The -3% probably has lot to do with the demand that was pulled forward last year and the elimination of the federal tax credit.

Used EV sales are up though, like you say. I've read that too.

 

[Great Gatsby]

Just yesterday, I filled up one of my vehicles for $5.95/gal at Costco gas. We've not seen any gas prices lower than $4/gal for couple of years where I am.

Everything I've seen, read and have heard say that hybrids and PHEV sales are climbing but not EV or pure ICEV. This year, so far EV sales are 5% of total vehicle sales whereas it was 8% last year. The -3% probably has lot to do with the demand that was pulled forward last year and the elimination of the federal tax credit.

Used EV sales are up though, like you say. I've read that too.

I still think it might be too early to see the side effects of gas prices and EV sales. If they stay like this, I very much foresee spikes in the summer months.

 

[Fmc]

For the most part owning an ev is a better experience..charge at home, my garage is cleaner, solar charging when available, less maintenance, to name a few. Downfall to EVs is tech is moving fast and battery tech and autonomy will get better but ICE has not materially improved MPG or their tech other than GM making an attempt with supercruise..this is a video i found enjoyable…

 

[BigSkies]

I remember seeing a chart of the supply/demand curve on oil. It was put together by the IEA or a similar agency IIRC.

Essentially, oil below $70/barrel creates supply destruction. Prices above $120/barrel are where sustained demand destruction starts happening.

Prices between those ranges keep a rough balance of the status quo.

My statement is a simplification, as it's a curve and not a hard cutoff. It also oversimplifies the big divergences happening in various oil prices and refined product prices based on the source of physical supply / geography, etc.

But I still think it's a useful rule of thumb.

 

[SANZC02]

I saw an Interesting analysis on oil futures today (around 7:15 mark) where oil futures by some analysis think it could be 2032 before oil gets back to where it was before Iran was attacked.

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