Rivian financial situation and Volkswagen collaboration

[savethemanual]

Tesla may buy them. Tesla has the cash and can leverage the unique positioning while adding FSD.

There’s no effing way Rivian will sell out to Tesla.

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[LevelHeaded]

I thought VW was going to buy Rivian outright. They still might.

With what money? VW is in a dire position.

 

[LevelHeaded]

Tesla may buy them. Tesla has the cash and can leverage the unique positioning while adding FSD.

SpaceXAIviansla

Stranger things have happened

 

[mkg3]

How many F-150s does Ford make and sell per year? I feel like it's a lot... (unless you are framing this as EV only?)

Single EV model. I believe it took Ford multiple years to get F150 lightning to 100k units.

 

[mkg3]

With what money? VW is in a dire position.

VW doesn't need to buy Rivian. They already own 21% and the largest voting block for the company.

 

[mkg3]

There’s no effing way Rivian will sell out to Tesla.

Tesla has no need for Rivian. It would be a waste of money for Tesla.

 

[TechDad]

Tesla may buy them. Tesla has the cash and can leverage the unique positioning while adding FSD.

Yea, good luck getting that past anti-trust regulations.

 

[baggachipz]

With what money? VW is in a dire position.

Yeah well they just announced another 50k layoff so there's more cash

SpaceXAIviansla

Stranger things have happened

Please no, I don''t want to have to sell my Rivian as well.

Yea, good luck getting that past anti-trust regulations.

Haven't you heard? Those don't exist anymore.

 

[babylou]

400k/yr projections for R2 in N.A. is bonkers. Once Georgia is rolling in the same class there will be a revamped Model Y (speculation), Volvo EX60, BMW iX3, MB GLC, Lucid Earth plus probably a new Hyundai/Kia/Genesis vehicle, maybe a Ford sharing the Fathom chassis and a refreshed GM vehicle. Oh yah there is that Scout brand too. Even with a ton of market growth achieving above 200k units per annum for any of them will be a helluva task.

Rivian needs to have more models and aggresively export. Export market is going to be hard with tariffs, the anti-American sentiment that is pervasive now and low cost Chinese competition spreading like wildfire.

 

[Polymath]

New member here. I'm on the waitlist for an R2 for Nov/Dec. I've been reading a bit about Rivian's financial status (no profit yet, long term stability, start up) and their collaboration with VW--which seems to be having some serious business issues. Also, just the potential issues of buying a Gen 1 car. Have any of you--with more experience than I--considered these issues in your purchases? Am I over concerned? Thanks in advance for any insight.

You might find this interesting, it's from 2.5 years ago:
https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/worried-about-buying-a-rivian-if-the-company-fails.26566/
Financial metric wise, Rivian is much healthier now than when this was going around.

 

[r2fb]

Tesla may buy them. Tesla has the cash and can leverage the unique positioning while adding FSD.

Tesla isn't even interested in being a car company anymore. They're cutting models, not adding them.

 

[BigSkies]

400k/yr projections for R2 in N.A. is bonkers. Once Georgia is rolling in the same class there will be a revamped Model Y (speculation), Volvo EX60, BMW iX3, MB GLC, Lucid Earth plus probably a new Hyundai/Kia/Genesis vehicle, maybe a Ford sharing the Fathom chassis and a refreshed GM vehicle. Oh yah their is that Scout brand too. Even with a ton of market growth achieving above 200k units per annum for any of them will be a helluva task.

Rivian needs to have more models and aggresively export. Export market is going to be hard with tariffs, the anti-American sentiment that is pervasive now and low cost Chinese competition spreading like wildfire.

I agree 400k R2's in NA isn't happening, but I could see high-200's to low 300's with a fully scaled sales/service center network. This will take a few years and the R3 though.

I'd be surprised if Scout actually happens given VW's financial position and recently announced cuts. Their goal is to cut models right now.

Maybe Rivian will take over one of those closing VW plants in Europe in a few years.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

With what money? VW is in a dire position.

From Electrek.co's article: "The automaker’s supervisory board unanimously approved its sweeping Future Plan 2030 on Thursday. It calls for fewer workers, models, options, managers, and investments as Volkswagen tries to cut costs and catch up with faster-moving Chinese rivals."

They aren't cutting just to avoid bankruptcy. They are cutting to free up funds, funds to pay for efforts in catching up with the Chinese, so VW Group can remain competitive in the future and not get trampled by the Chinese. And Rivian VW Group Technologies is one such effort.

"Dire" is what journalists write to sensationalize a story, so they get clicks and get paid. It isn't "oh crap, if I don't stop spending now my checkbook will be $0 soon". What VWG is doing is more like someone cutting back in order to pay for additional education, so they can further their careers.

You know what else these drastic cuts by VW also say (but no one is talking about)? This means the second largest automaker in the world today fully knows and admits (quietly) that EVs are the future. And that the question is no longer being debated. Meanwhile at Toyota (#1), they are just now realizing "it 'cannot survive' by sticking to its traditional methods" as it continues to delay or cancel EV plans.

 

[tivoboy]

Two things can be true at the same time, ESPECIALLY in the auto industry.. they can be cutting, slashing, re-organizing while at the same time INVESTING in new plants, vehicle, product and business lines.. that’s all part of the plan.

Having done more than a couple large European OEM mergers and restructuring in the past 25+ years I can tell you there must always be a realistic restructuring plan, which always includes rationalization of products, facilities, headcount, suppliers, management re-organization etc.. otherwise it won’t get sign-off from the board, the shareholders, the oversight board (Aufsichtsrat) and more importantly the labor board (which is an equally represented member of the Aufsichtsrat), which in European companies sits adjunct to the board of management.. much more so than what we have here in NA with labor unions, which are external and have no direct power, access or information.

The parent/child company isn’t ever going to get this level of labor force reduction without a significant cry for the need for restructuring.

$5B for VW to invest in Rivian is a rounding error at this point and they get significanct access and upside. A seat at the table for what looks to be at least significant upside.

$20B wouldn’t be much for them either. So the well isn’t dry.

But VW will be fine, if you’re interested take a look at Porsche. PORSCHE!.. those guys backs Are TO THE WALL. It is such an interesting tale at this point, and knowing well the history I’m just a little bit not surprised.

If you have any interest in Porsche or automotive companies, take a look at the history over the past 17 years of Porsche and VW.. it’s such an interesting story family intrigue, national pride, technology and engineering, bravado, politics, inappropriate relationships..

Having been a part of it early on and followed it closely after that time ended, I think there’s a “ford vs ferrari” story there that ppl would consume.. but that‘s a story to be written in retirement ;-)

But there are several enjoyable books about it already.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

Tesla isn't even interested in being a car company anymore. They're cutting models, not adding them.

Not to mention the charging support for vehicles as well. I saw more outages and broken stalls this past summer than I have in the decade I've been using them. Not to mention, they're leaning heavily into manufacturing and installing private superchargers.

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