Software defined vehicles: no better than a smartphone?

[Tom(myBoy)]

I have a reservation for the new Rivian R2. And, this question has been in the back of my mind. More specifically, how well will this car hold up its value proposition over the next 10 years.

like one of the people interviewed in this article, I had a Mazda Miata NA and later an NB. All held their value proposition for over 10 years. I currently have a 2015 Subaru Outback and a 2015 Volkswagen E-Golf. The latter one is a bit long in the tooth but still works well for my husband‘s commute into the office and back and for much of our travel around our home. The Outback’s features and technologies are holding up much better across the years.

I know I could easily understand Rivian’s spokesperson to be saying that their cars will remain software current for 7 to 10 years, and software safety and security supported beyond that. Do you buy that inference?

If so, why so? And if not, why not?

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[SANZC02]

I have a reservation for the new Rivian R2. And, this question has been in the back of my mind. More specifically, how well will this car hold up its value proposition over the next 10 years.

like one of the people interviewed in this article, I had a Mazda Miata NA and later an NB. All held their value proposition for over 10 years. I currently have a 2015 Subaru Outback and a 2015 Volkswagen E-Golf. The latter one is a bit long in the tooth but still works well for my husband‘s commute into the office and back and for much of our travel around our home. The Outback’s features and technologies are holding up much better across the years.

I know I could easily understand Rivian’s spokesperson to be saying that their cars will remain software current for 7 to 10 years, and software safety and security supported beyond that. Do you buy that inference?

If so, why so? And if not, why not?

I buy it based on my Tesla Model S experience. I’ve had it over 10 years now, it still seems relevant, I was getting feature update into year 6 or 7 and still get software patches, latest one was a few months ago.

Like any other car it will start falling behind certain features as hardware advances will leave it unable to handle some new features but in the first 5+ years we will almost certainly be seeing enhancements. My R1S is a G1, I’ve had it over 3.5 years and still feels very relevant.

That being said, over my lifetime when I purchased a legacy car, what I drove off the lot with was what you had. This is not the case with software driven vehicles. My first experience with a software driven update was in 2018 when Jeep released a patch to my 2014 Jeep GC that allowed the vehicle to read and respond to text messages.


Edit, I might add I used to chase the latest cell phone releases until I started realizing I rarely used or needed the latest and greatest. Now I keep my cell phones until there is a real reason to replace it.

 

[Great Gatsby]

I wouldn’t overthink it. The car will still drive and be fine. Plenty of old examples of Teslas still being used today. At the end of the day, it’s still a car. The software updates are a plus IMO (and probably a negative for some) so to me it’s upside. I wouldn’t be deterred by a software defined vehicle though based on it copying the smartphone model. Like the previous post said, if you don’t want the latest and greatest hardware, keeping the car longterm could still be in the cards no problem.

 

[electruck]

there is still a market for 40+ yr old ICE jalopies that are beat up, barely run, have outdated cassette players, zero connectivity, no working a/c, etc. same will hold true for BEVs. not everyone can afford to buy new and many can barely afford an old jalopy.

 

[Mos Eisley]

there is still a market for 40+ yr old ICE jalopies that are beat up, barely run, have outdated cassette players, zero connectivity, no working a/c, etc. same will hold true for BEVs. not everyone can afford to buy new and many can barely afford an old jalopy.

But a 40 year old jalopy can't be bricked when it no longer supports critical software.

 

[Ecupip]

I’m not worried at all. It’s still a car first. You can always disable data if it’s not longer supported or someone will most always develop a fix to sell.

 

[windshieldfarmer]

Nearly all cars manufactured and sold today are “software defined”, some more than others. Vehicles most at risk are those where the long term viability of the manufacturer is at risk. If Rivian survives, the R2 will likely be appropriately supported for the duration of its useful life. If not, . Candidly, I don’t want to drive a 10 plus year old car of any make….

 

[electruck]

But a 40 year old jalopy can't be bricked when it no longer supports critical software.

a manufacturer may choose to no longer support and may cease to provide feature and security updates but that doesn't brick the vehicle. I mean, even with cell phones, some people still get by using some pretty ancient devices. there are also numerous other possibilities that could play out in the future such as 3rd parties building controllers to replace the OE (think along the lines of what is already happening with Comma AI and has been available for decades in the ICE world) or a manufacture may open up a new revenue stream by licensing the ability for 3rd parties to maintain a fork of the vehicle software/firmware along with the supporting backend servers (this won't happen until the manufacturer decides they want to abandon all support for legacy vehicles). these things will work themselves out over the next 10-20 years.

 

[Mos Eisley]

a manufacturer may choose to no longer support and may cease to provide feature and security updates but that doesn't brick the vehicle. I mean, even with cell phones, some people still get by using some pretty ancient devices. there are also numerous other possibilities that could play out in the future such as 3rd parties building controllers to replace the OE (think along the lines of what is already happening with Comma AI and has been available for decades in the ICE world) or a manufacture may open up a new revenue stream by licensing the ability for 3rd parties to maintain a fork of the vehicle software/firmware along with the supporting backend servers (this won't happen until the manufacturer decides they want to abandon all support for legacy vehicles). these things will work themselves out over the next 10-20 years.

in twenty years, I’d like to see the annual expense auto manufacturers will have to make to defend our vehicles against quantum level hacks.

 

[NinjaWrap]

But a 40 year old jalopy can't be bricked when it no longer supports critical software.

It won’t be bricked. It would just not get updates. Just like any legacy car.

 

[BCondrey]

I have owned a lot of vehicles, kept them for many years. Not one of them improved appreciably over time. What I bought I what I had for the next 15 years. Outside of a new stereo or a better trailer hitch. They degraded, parts had to be replaced, got less comfortable, etc.

My Rivian after 4 years of software upgrades is a much better vehicle and continues to improve. They keep adding functionality, tweaking it, etc.

The concern should be over the long-term viability of the companies that produce the vehicles, not how long the vehicles will last. I can pay them to replace anything on the Rivian, and there a lot less moving parts. I bought a Rivian because I thought they would make it long term.

I like this approach better than driving a beater forever.

 

[Zathras]

The most important point is your Subaru won’t change in a substantive way. Just like my Subaru. Lots of Rivian and Tesla users report their cars get better over time.

Cars aren’t phones. Rivian knows their future is based on good will from customers. And Consumer Reports has clearly stated that no other car has anywhere near the customer satisfaction numbers as does Rivian. Or the stated intent to buy another Rivian.

That should tell you the answer to your question.

 

[CrazyOne]

The software defined vehicles put car in limp mode or disable it if the parking sensor harness has a short. These things are going to be more like older mainstream German cars, only worse. The will be disposed around 10-15 year timeframe. They can get better, but they are far from it right now.

Another problem is security. I don't want an old smartphone, because it can be hacked easily. A phone from 2016, with no updates will be laughably easy to hack. These things, being connected to internet, will be vulnerable to attacks from around the world. The only way to use these will be to sever the Internet connection. Which can automatically happen when they kill 4G/5G in a decade or so.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

someone will most always develop a fix to sell.

If.. the pool of potential customers is large enough to suggest it could be a profitable endeavor. Gen1 owners are at a disadvantage in that respect. But it’s also the price of early adoption. And nothing stays “new” forever. Such is life.

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