Ketchum: Wait for LiDAR? - The Rivian R2 LiDAR story isn’t what you think

[shandering]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Tesla_Autopilot_crashes

From AI web summary of "Tesla FSD fatalities"

As of October 2025, there have been a total of 65 reported fatalities involving Tesla vehicles. Among these, 2 fatalities occurred while the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system was engaged.

Tesla reports a fatal crash rate of 5.6 deaths per billion miles driven for its vehicles, which is higher than the national U.S. average of 2.8 deaths per billion miles across all vehicles

That's misleading,. There were two deaths from "FSD" but they were basically autopilot as FSD was in beta and they used autopilot on freeways. FSD switched to neural networks on highways with the more publicly available releases. That's when most of the FSD miles were racked up and nobody died

The two autopilot/FSD deaths, one was not at fault (a truck pulled out in front of a car going 70mph) and the other was a sun glare issue that is obviously not a problem for FSD if you use proper neural networks

Also you should probably do better research. The death rate is close to 12 for every billion miles. FSD having 0 across 12 billion miles is very good. Across 12 billion miles close to 144 people should have died.

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[shandering]

I appreciate the passion you bring to the defense of Tesla's FSD, but you might want to link to sources in support of your position. Using hyperbole undercuts your argument; for instance, to achieve even 1,000,000 miles of testing would take one test vehicle 2.85 years if driven at an average speed of 40 mph, 24/7 non-stop, even for charging, or swapping out tires/drivers/etc. If we assume a fleet of 10 test vehicles, and given battery capacity, a 4/hr day driving, 5 days a week, non-stop at an average speed of 40 mph, then it would take about two years to achieve one million miles.

But in Europe, they measure distance in kilometers.

you do know how many test vehicles tesla has? It's in the thousands

Right now they have manufactured well over 1000 cybercabs and they are driving them. Tesla even last year was rumored to have employed 700 test drivers in california alone

The RDW tested for 1.5 years and they drove 1.8 million kilometers which is a little over 1 million miles.

Tesla is a big company that employs a lot of people. RDW did their own testing and then tesla did demo rides from various service centers in europe

 

[LevelHeaded]

Let’s get back on track, this has become a weird Tesla propaganda thread instead of a discussion about Rivian’s self-driving technology and computers!

 

[Bullwinkle]

LE also includes radar.

 

[Bullwinkle]

I agree with your business perspective. Rivian doesn’t want to create early adopter launch customers without RAP1+LiDar and those with it 6 months later. I think they’ll hit their 25K goal by the end of the year and that will be it for the launch package. The Premium might be the first R2 with RAP1+LiDar, but I’m sure there will be a non-Launch Performance, too.

As for autonomy, I’ve tried recent builds of FSD on my Model 3 and it’s just not for me. It makes me more stressed out babysitting the thing than driving myself. I’m also afraid if I did subscribe to it and got used it I’d grow complacent. Then if I got into a situation where I’d have to take over I might not react in time.

It’s just not worth it to me. It would have to be foolproof first. Not to mention that I like to drive. All I need is advanced cruise control with lane centering to give me a break on long trips. I guess I’m old school, but I do love new tech. I just don’t think it’s fully baked yet.

I like to drive vs fly when I have time. I just drove our BMW X5 50e to our vacation home in Steamboat for the 4th. From there, I drove my kid back to Bozeman (saw Houndmouth at a little venue in the mountains), then home to Minneapolis. 2500ish miles--a lot of interstate over 3 weeks. BMWs hands free lane centering is very good, and you can change lanes by looking at the side view mirror or using the turn signal--pretty equivalent to R2. You do have to keep your eyes on the road, or it starts making a fuss. My point is that when I bought the car, I was not sure the system would be that useful to me. Within a few hundred miles, I realised I loved it. Even this relatively simple system really reduces fatigue and makes highway driving more relaxing.

This has convinced me that autonomy + is a really desirable feature for me on longer drives, but my guess is I won't have the car park itself or drive me to the grocery store. My guess is that lidar will not matter much to capability over the next few years. I do think more processing power may be useful in the 2nd half of the car's lifespan, but that will be a different owner's problem.

 

[Bullwinkle]

We don't know if it's better. Adaptive suspension doesn't always feel better. It can be stiffer even in its softest mode, for example, which some people may not like. It could also be a very cheap system, while a regular suspension might be better and more reliable.

I doubt this is true

 

[Bullwinkle]

While RJ states that supervised point to point driving is coming to all GEN 2 Rivian vehicles, I would not trust any camera – only system with such a task due to the inherent limitations and failure modes inherent in such a system.

RJ also claims that the LiDAR - equipped R2 vehicles will not offer any additional benefits to customers, at least initially.

however, it is also true that a lidar equipped vehicle has the potential to gain much more accurate and reliable sensor awareness of its surroundings and is less likely to be fooled or miss a variety of objects that a camera, only system may fail to register. You can see a number of YouTube videos, where Tesla‘s camera only system has caused accidents, some fatal, while in auto pilot or FSD.

The belief that AI can quickly code a safe self driving algorithm is a misunderstanding of the limitations of AI and how it works. Specifically, AI recognizes patterns and builds only on past experiences. Its reasoning capabilities are limited and its ability to anticipate possible future events is effectively near zero.

I might come to trust a lidar- equipped vehicle with self driving capabilities only when that software has been proven safe and effective after several years of real world testing.

I think it’s also important to remember the many utopian promises made by our tech friends over the preceding decades and temper our expectations and enthusiasm based on the history of how those promises have panned out.

Tesla's do not have radar anymore.

 

[mferring]

Yes, and later Gen3 hardware will bring you to your destination during a foggy night more reliable with less involvement from your side than current hardware.

I know Lidar will help when there are poor conditions such as foggy, heavy rain, etc. But I have to say, at least for now, there is no way I am letting UHF drive during such conditions.....or when stopping at a toll booth, etc.

I would be happy if the UHF with some point to point basically worked in reasonably good weather. From everything I have heard, I think the LE will likely do that.

 

[Bullwinkle]

I know Lidar will help when there are poor conditions such as foggy, heavy rain, etc. But I have to say, at least for now, there is no way I am letting UHF drive during such conditions.....or when stopping at a toll booth, etc.

I would be happy if the UHF with some point to point basically worked in reasonably good weather. From everything I have heard, I think the LE will likely do that.

Really good point.

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