Rivian announces 75 million shares offering

[evguy]

The thing is, Rivian has very heavy competition now. Here are the list of all EV SUVs in 2026 that cost at or below $60K. There are 30 of them and even if not all are real contenders, people do shop prices:
https://www.motortrend.com/rankings/suvs/electric/under-60k

Also, if history is any indication, best layed plan will be changed. Who knows when R3 will be available and by then, it may be overtaken by events and alternatives.

There's competition, but I wouldn't call it "very heavy." Tesla and Rivian remain in a class of their own when it comes to hardware/software integration at that price point, and plenty of Americans pay more for a premium product despite cheaper alternatives. See, iPhone.

Rivian hit its promised timeline with R2, and they can't afford to slip with R3. There is no alternative for them. GA factory begins production in 2028, and two years is not a long time. Feels like yesterday that Rivian first revealed the R2.

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[DuoRivians]

There's competition, but I wouldn't call it "very heavy." Tesla and Rivian remain in a class of their own when it comes to hardware/software integration at that price point, and plenty of Americans pay more for a premium product despite cheaper alternatives. See, iPhone.

Rivian hit its promised timeline with R2, and they can't afford to slip with R3. There is no alternative for them. GA factory begins production in 2028, and two years is not a long time. Feels like yesterday that Rivian first revealed the R2.

EVs in the United States isn’t really a growing segment anymore. If anything, hybrids seem to be growing faster.

So, Rivian’s trying to succeed in a stagnant segment of cars in the US isn’t encouraging.

Tesla largely succeeded because they received $11.5 Billion in regulatory credits (for emissions), and the first 200,000 customers received $7500 in tax credits, with no restrictions. These huge amounts enabled Tesla to scale and expand internationally—notably China to get cheap manufacturing.

Rivian has no more regulatory credit (for emissions) or $7500 tax credit incentive for consumers. Before Elon / Trump canceled the regulatory credits, Rivian received maybe $750M total. Hardly anything versus Tesla’s $11.5B.

So, Rivian has to somehow scale with no government credits (not talking about loans) and a stagnant EV industry in the U.S.

It’s hard to be optimistic that somehow, US customers alone will buy 400K Rivians *every year*, just for Rivian to break even financially.

Other large oems that produce EVs seem to have figured out that if there is any chance of being competitive, they need to build a product that can compete in China and figure out the pricing strategy later. For example: BMW figured out that they need to build a fast charging + great range car that can go head-to-head with their Chinese counterparts. Which they can also happen to sell in the US. Thus, the iX3. Same can be said about Volvo.

When I look at Rivian, they could have tried to make the R2 either a fast charging, great range car (800V, 350+ mile range) in the premium segment. OR, a substantially cheaper alternative using legacy 400V, okay-ish range car. (400V, sub 300 mile range, $35-45K car). Either could have competed internationally well.

But, they chose a mediocre charging car with okay-range for the premium price segment. This intersection basically means it can’t compete internationally.

Rivian can only sell to a certain segment of US customers (eg upper middle class, EV-curious who are willing to pay a premium over hybrids). Which again, I don’t see how Rivian gets 400K customers per year. R3 may lower the price point, but now you’re outside the popular suv segment.

And last, consumers are under no obligation to ensure a company survives. So, when you say this is a make-or-break moment for Rivian, I’m afraid they made a poor choice strategically with the R2 that gives them little chance of succeeding long term. Perhaps they can find $11.5B in regulatory credits like Tesla had.

 

[harperwc]

Oh well. Back to $14 we go

i will back up the truck if it gets to $14.

 

[evguy]

EVs in the United States isn’t really a growing segment anymore. If anything, hybrids seem to be growing faster.

So, Rivian’s trying to succeed in a stagnant segment of cars in the US isn’t encouraging.

Tesla largely succeeded because they received $11.5 Billion in regulatory credits (for emissions), and the first 200,000 customers received $7500 in tax credits, with no restrictions. These huge amounts enabled Tesla to scale and expand internationally—notably China to get cheap manufacturing.

Rivian has no more regulatory credit (for emissions) or $7500 tax credit incentive for consumers. Before Elon / Trump canceled the regulatory credits, Rivian received maybe $750M total. Hardly anything versus Tesla’s $11.5B.

So, Rivian has to somehow scale with no government credits (not talking about loans) and a stagnant EV industry in the U.S.

It’s hard to be optimistic that somehow, US customers alone will buy 400K Rivians *every year*, just for Rivian to break even financially.

Other large oems that produce EVs seem to have figured out that if there is any chance of being competitive, they need to build a product that can compete in China and figure out the pricing strategy later. For example: BMW figured out that they need to build a fast charging + great range car that can go head-to-head with their Chinese counterparts. Which they can also happen to sell in the US. Thus, the iX3. Same can be said about Volvo.

When I look at Rivian, they could have tried to make the R2 either a fast charging, great range car (800V, 350+ mile range) in the premium segment. OR, a substantially cheaper alternative using legacy 400V, okay-ish range car. (400V, sub 300 mile range, $35-45K car). Either could have competed internationally well.

But, they chose a mediocre charging car with okay-range for the premium price segment. This intersection basically means it can’t compete internationally.

Rivian can only sell to a certain segment of US customers (eg upper middle class, EV-curious who are willing to pay a premium over hybrids). Which again, I don’t see how Rivian gets 400K customers per year. R3 may lower the price point, but now you’re outside the popular suv segment.

And last, consumers are under no obligation to ensure a company survives. So, when you say this is a make-or-break moment for Rivian, I’m afraid they made a poor choice strategically with the R2 that gives them little chance of succeeding long term. Perhaps they can find $11.5B in regulatory credits like Tesla had.

Risks aplenty for sure. But the sales data over the next 12-18 months will tell us how Rivian's decisions on R2 landed. Americans' taste for EVs has changed, and will continue to change, for the better now that there are more options right around the average selling price of a new ICE vehicle. The addressable market in the US is larger than what you described.

I'm not sure they need to sell 400k units a year in the US to turn a profit, considering they also have a significant, and growing, tech licensing business with a higher margin. But even if they do, don't forget the RCV. Amazon won't always be the only large fleet customer.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

i will back up the truck if it gets to $14.

Really? It bounced between 11-14 for 18 months. It was a predictive a lucrative cycle.

Why go all in at $14 now?

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Risks aplenty for sure. But the sales data over the next 12-18 months will tell us how Rivian's decisions on R2 landed. Americans' taste for EVs has changed, and will continue to change, for the better now that there are more options right around the average selling price of a new ICE vehicle. The addressable market in the US is larger than what you described.

I'm not sure they need to sell 400k units a year in the US to turn a profit, considering they also have a significant, and growing, tech licensing business with a higher margin. But even if they do, don't forget the RCV. Amazon won't always be the only large fleet customer.

I would be surprised the conversion rate, from reservation to order, they are seeing already didn't influence their decision that this is the right time to issue more shares... and raise the capital they need to keep production on track to meet projected demand. Some amount of risk taking is necessary. Business that take on little to no risk are the stagnant ones who are poised to lose marketshare as they snooze (see Intel?).

 

[mkhuffman]

EVs in the United States isn’t really a growing segment anymore. If anything, hybrids seem to be growing faster.

So, Rivian’s trying to succeed in a stagnant segment of cars in the US isn’t encouraging.

Tesla largely succeeded because they received $11.5 Billion in regulatory credits (for emissions), and the first 200,000 customers received $7500 in tax credits, with no restrictions. These huge amounts enabled Tesla to scale and expand internationally—notably China to get cheap manufacturing.

Rivian has no more regulatory credit (for emissions) or $7500 tax credit incentive for consumers. Before Elon / Trump canceled the regulatory credits, Rivian received maybe $750M total. Hardly anything versus Tesla’s $11.5B.

So, Rivian has to somehow scale with no government credits (not talking about loans) and a stagnant EV industry in the U.S.

It’s hard to be optimistic that somehow, US customers alone will buy 400K Rivians *every year*, just for Rivian to break even financially.

Other large oems that produce EVs seem to have figured out that if there is any chance of being competitive, they need to build a product that can compete in China and figure out the pricing strategy later. For example: BMW figured out that they need to build a fast charging + great range car that can go head-to-head with their Chinese counterparts. Which they can also happen to sell in the US. Thus, the iX3. Same can be said about Volvo.

When I look at Rivian, they could have tried to make the R2 either a fast charging, great range car (800V, 350+ mile range) in the premium segment. OR, a substantially cheaper alternative using legacy 400V, okay-ish range car. (400V, sub 300 mile range, $35-45K car). Either could have competed internationally well.

But, they chose a mediocre charging car with okay-range for the premium price segment. This intersection basically means it can’t compete internationally.

Rivian can only sell to a certain segment of US customers (eg upper middle class, EV-curious who are willing to pay a premium over hybrids). Which again, I don’t see how Rivian gets 400K customers per year. R3 may lower the price point, but now you’re outside the popular suv segment.

And last, consumers are under no obligation to ensure a company survives. So, when you say this is a make-or-break moment for Rivian, I’m afraid they made a poor choice strategically with the R2 that gives them little chance of succeeding long term. Perhaps they can find $11.5B in regulatory credits like Tesla had.

I disagree.

Before 2026, only Tesla provided a truly compelling BEV for the average buyer, and their sales numbers prove it.

Model Y sales have little to do with the incentive. It is a fact that auto demand is price inelastic. Of course price matters, but a 10% increase in price does not result in a 10% decrease in sales. People think the floor fell out of the BEV market because of the removal of the rich person subsidy. No, that is factually incorrect. It had a minor impact. And almost no impact on sales of the Model Y. (My friend got his first BEV, a Model Y, after the incentive ended. Imagine that.)

Anyway, nobody knows the future. My belief is when there are compelling BEV products, people will buy them. The Model Y is compelling. People are buying it. The R2 is compelling. I think people will buy it. The iX3 is compelling. I think people will buy it.

I predict BEV sales will continue growing this year, and the R2 will be a big part of it. Let's check back in a year to see who was right.

Edit: I might add the Mach-e, except Ford doesn't make any money selling them. So not sure if that counts.

 

[mkg3]

Risks aplenty for sure. But the sales data over the next 12-18 months will tell us how Rivian's decisions on R2 landed....The addressable market in the US is larger...

I'm not sure they need to sell 400k units a year in the US to turn a profit, considering they also have a significant, and growing, tech licensing business with a higher margin. ...Amazon won't always be the only large fleet customer.

It just sounds rationalizing. First, the next 12 to 18months would not see R2 at full production rate, based on Rivian's own statement. They have also said that they won't be profitable until the GA plant is up and turning out R3 due to heavy investments.

The number 1 selling SUV in 2025, any propulsion, was the RAV4 at 239K then CR-V at 212K. Both are Hybrids and ICE. Tesla MY comes in the highest eSUV at 150K. There is no chance that Rivian converts all those buyers to R2.

Sometimes, thinking with your heart can cloud what your brain would tell you. As for the licensing business, aside from the VWG JV, if Rivian has any, it is nascent at best. VWG vehicles using what the JV develops, would be implemented into their vehicle with little to no additional benefit to Rivian beyond the original $5.5B investment. After all, VWG has already paid for it.

As a side note, R2 was originally supposed to be built in GA plant and delays and lack of progress disclosed during one of the earnings call couple of years ago, was met with such a negative response from the investment community that Rivian decided to start the line at the Normal plant. So, no, the original plan did change and it was for good. No argument there but still was not the plan they started with.

 

[DuoRivians]

I disagree.

Before 2026, only Tesla provided a truly compelling BEV for the average buyer, and their sales numbers prove it.

Model Y sales have little to do with the incentive. It is a fact that auto demand is price inelastic. Of course price matters, but a 10% increase in price does not result in a 10% decrease in sales. People think the floor fell out of the BEV market because of the removal of the rich person subsidy. No, that is factually incorrect. It had a minor impact. And almost no impact on sales of the Model Y. (My friend got his first BEV, a Model Y, after the incentive ended. Imagine that.)

Anyway, nobody knows the future. My belief is when there are compelling BEV products, people will buy them. The Model Y is compelling. People are buying it. The R2 is compelling. I think people will buy it. The iX3 is compelling. I think people will buy it.

I predict BEV sales will continue growing this year, and the R2 will be a big part of it. Let's check back in a year to see who was right.

Edit: I might add the Mach-e, except Ford doesn't make any money selling them. So not sure if that counts.

You can certainly disagree. I just don’t see it. Overall to me, it is simply not worth the risk-return to own RIVN. There are many better investment alternatives out there.

 

[savethemanual]

This article seems to be a cautiously optimistic view of the recent stock offering.

https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/rivian-75-million-share-offering-disappoints-investors

 

[evguy]

It just sounds rationalizing. First, the next 12 to 18months would not see R2 at full production rate, based on Rivian's own statement. They have also said that they won't be profitable until the GA plant is up and turning out R3 due to heavy investments.

The number 1 selling SUV in 2025, any propulsion, was the RAV4 at 239K then CR-V at 212K. Both are Hybrids and ICE. Tesla MY comes in the highest eSUV at 150K. There is no chance that Rivian converts all those buyers to R2.

Sometimes, thinking with your heart can cloud what your brain would tell you. As for the licensing business, aside from the VWG JV, if Rivian has any, it is nascent at best. VWG vehicles using what the JV develops, would be implemented into their vehicle with little to no additional benefit to Rivian beyond the original $5.5B investment. After all, VWG has already paid for it.

As a side note, R2 was originally supposed to be built in GA plant and delays and lack of progress disclosed during one of the earnings call couple of years ago, was met with such a negative response from the investment community that Rivian decided to start the line at the Normal plant. So, no, the original plan did change and it was for good. No argument there but still was not the plan they started with.

Neither of us is "rationalizing," we're doing something much more fun - trying to predict the future with limited info and lots of uncertainty. Your forecast just happens to have more doom and gloom. Have fun designing Rivian's tombstone!

 

[Redline]

Interestingly enough, there's been some large bullish option activity. Feel like this could be a buy.

 

[mkhuffman]

Interestingly enough, there's been some large bullish option activity. Feel like this could be a buy.

Wait for it to get to $65, and then buy.

 

[jrothman]

It’s hard to be optimistic that somehow, US customers alone will buy 400K Rivians *every year*, just for Rivian to break even financially.

Can you explain where you got 400K in annual sales to break even? Sincerely asking. Where is this number coming from?

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