What's the future of the Electric Truck/SUV market?

[orionexp]

I think the headline is disingenuous (click bait, anyone?)

I'm holding out for my Adventure package for sure.

I think that in a few years, Ford will be the biggest player in the E Truck market.

price point, manufacturing capacity, and reputation.

Haven't really followed what GM is up to, and I doubt Tesla can match the mfr capability of Ford.

Really glad that Rivian is going with another plant.

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...-end-detroits-reign-over-the-us-auto-industry

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[kurtlikevonnegut]

I think the headline is disingenuous (click bait, anyone?)

I'm holding out for my Adventure package for sure.

I think that in a few years, Ford will be the biggest player in the E Truck market.

price point, manufacturing capacity, and reputation.

Haven't really followed what GM is up to, and I doubt Tesla can match the mfr capability of Ford.

Really glad that Rivian is going with another plant.

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...-end-detroits-reign-over-the-us-auto-industry

I found it interesting that Rivian is allegedly benchmarking a Mach E right now, which would indicate to me that they are working on a midsize/compact crossover platform because I highly doubt they would be benchmarking the Mach E against the R1S. I would assume this would be either an R2S or R2C, which would likely compete directly with the Fisker Ocean.

On one hand, I have a feeling that a slew of information is going to come from Rivian at the start of 2022. On the other hand, I find it hard to believe that they will be devoting any manufacturing resources to new product lines until the Normal expansion is done and/or the new site is operational.

 

[Dbeglor]

Ford will definitely sell more Lightnings that Rivian by a large amount. Of the nearly 1m F150's they sell every year, I'm guessing the Lightning would work/be an upgrade for as much as half. I don't see the Lightning attracting many new Ford owners if their chosen brand as an electric version in the works.

GM will unveil the electric Sierra next month, not sure when they plan to deliver but will be a year or more behind Ford. I'd expect the same percentage adoption out of their existing Sierra sales.

The R1T will be limited to probably 50k/year of the R1T due to price point.

Tesla has far more production capacity than Ford or anyone else at the moment for EVs and it isn't even close. It remains to be seen how long it will take Ford or others to catch up, you can't just flip a switch and turn an ICE line into EV, nor would they anyway because that takes away ability to generate revenue to pay the bills.

 

[Dbeglor]

I found it interesting that Rivian is allegedly benchmarking a Mach E right now, which would indicate to me that they are working on a midsize/compact crossover platform because I highly doubt they would be benchmarking the Mach E against the R1S. I would assume this would be either an R2S or R2C, which would likely compete directly with the Fisker Ocean.

On one hand, I have a feeling that a slew of information is going to come from Rivian at the start of 2022. On the other hand, I find it hard to believe that they will be devoting any manufacturing resources to new product lines until the Normal expansion is done and/or the new site is operational.

It won't take any manufacturing resources for the new platform, that's all R&D. The new platforms will be manufactured at the new factories in the US and Europe and Normal will remain the R1 factory (equivalent of Fremont for Tesla).

I would expect the second platform to be utilized for a smaller SUV/Crossover as well as sedan or Jeep type vehicle as has been suggested. Hard to imagine a smaller truck unless they try to bring back the single cab.... I've read that a new platform costs roughly $1B to develop, so you want to leverage it as far as you can.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

It won't take any manufacturing resources for the new platform, that's all R&D. The new platforms will be manufactured at the new factories in the US and Europe and Normal will remain the R1 factory (equivalent of Fremont for Tesla).

I would expect the second platform to be utilized for a smaller SUV/Crossover as well as sedan or Jeep type vehicle as has been suggested. Hard to imagine a smaller truck unless they try to bring back the single cab.... I've read that a new platform costs roughly $1B to develop, so you want to leverage it as far as you can.

I expect the R&D is absolutely going on, but RJ also said that they likely wouldn't announce new models until they were nearly imminent and I don't expect them to be in a position to add new vehicles to the lineup until 2024 at the earliest.

That said, I expect the primary differentiator for the R2 series to be that it will be dual motor with smaller battery options with an S, T, C, and maybe a V option with the C likely being a shorter wheelbase. Dual motors with a 75ish kwh battery option at a mid market price point. Also, it looked like they had a crew cab mule out there on the R1T that could be testing that door configuration for a R2T designed to be a primarily fleet truck.

 

[sub]

I can't wait for my Rivian, but I think that Tesla will be #1 in terms of EV volume for quite a while.

Ford and GM may have a big pile of final assembly plants, but how many battery cell manufacturing plants do they have? They are not going to be able easily repurpose a final assembly plant into a battery manufacturing plant. And just hoping that a 3rd party supplier is going to come to your rescue with a mountain of batteries is wishful thinking.

We may not like the cybertruck aesthetics, but unless someone else has been building giant battery factories in secret, Tesla is going to dominate every EV segment they chose to compete in just because they are going to be the only ones who will have enough batteries.

 

[Autolycus]

I expect the R&D is absolutely going on, but RJ also said that they likely wouldn't announce new models until they were nearly imminent and I don't expect them to be in a position to add new vehicles to the lineup until 2024 at the earliest.

That said, I expect the primary differentiator for the R2 series to be that it will be dual motor with smaller battery options with an S, T, C, and maybe a V option with the C likely being a shorter wheelbase. Dual motors with a 75ish kwh battery option at a mid market price point. Also, it looked like they had a crew cab mule out there on the R1T that could be testing that door configuration for a R2T designed to be a primarily fleet truck.

I thought they'd said that the crew cab mule was really just an R1S mule that they slapped together with the R1S skateboard and some cut up R1T body panels. Am I imagining that?

 

[Dbeglor]

I can't wait for my Rivian, but I think that Tesla will be #1 in terms of EV volume for quite a while.

Ford and GM may have a big pile of final assembly plants, but how many battery cell manufacturing plants do they have? They are not going to be able easily repurpose a final assembly plant into a battery manufacturing plant. And just hoping that a 3rd party supplier is going to come to your rescue with a mountain of batteries is wishful thinking.

We may not like the cybertruck aesthetics, but unless someone else has been building giant battery factories in secret, Tesla is going to dominate every EV segment they chose to compete in just because they are going to be the only ones who will have enough batteries.

That's right. Tesla thinks they can sell 20m vehicles a year by the end of the decade, and therefore are making plans to support that. If you're a supplier, you're riding with them vs. someone who says I plan to be producing EV's in three years.

 

[ChrissyOne]

Ford will sell Lightnings to people who already buy F-150s, which is a lot of people, but I don't see them expanding their market, it will just gradually replace their ICE truck sales.
Cybertruck (if it ever exists, which I suspect it won't) will appeal to Musk fans who don't know anything about Trucks. I think they'll sell like VHS copies of Ishtar.
I think the best chance to Rivian to gain market share is among Toyota buyers, since they seem to be falling on their face with EVs overall. If they don't have an EV Tundra and Land Cruiser before Rivian gets ramped up, they're going to suffer. Rivian might also appeal to people who didn't necessarily drive trucks and SUVs before. But that depends on how fast the rest of the industry moves.

 

[Craigins]

From the S-1

Further, we believe that we will be able to increase the annual production capacity of the Normal Factory up to 200,000 vehicles in 2023 as we introduce additional R1 platform variants and expand the facility.

So they seem to be aiming for new variants by the end of 2023. Whether or not that just means "standard" battery packs, who knows.

 

[SlaterGS]

I had high hopes for this thread with the title "What's the future of the electric truck/suv market?"
mainly because I was hoping it would be a discussion of what future EV's in those market segments might be announced or available in the not too distant future.

It seems a more appropriate title would be "Who will dominate the EV truck/suv market in the future?"

Back on topic lol
I would agree with others that Rivian won't touch Ford in numbers, but Tesla has a good jump on a lot of the battery supply chain which will help them for quite some time. So while others are still announcing and slowly launching their first EV's, even if they have the manufacturing capacity and demand, they will struggle to maintain the supply chain for batteries in particular.

 

[koersontap]

I had high hopes for this thread with the title "What's the future of the electric truck/suv market?"
mainly because I was hoping it would be a discussion of what future EV's in those market segments might be announced or available in the not too distant future.

It seems a more appropriate title would be "Who will dominate the EV truck/suv market in the future?"

Back on topic lol
I would agree with others that Rivian won't touch Ford in numbers, but Tesla has a good jump on a lot of the battery supply chain which will help them for quite some time. So while others are still announcing and slowly launching their first EV's, even if they have the manufacturing capacity and demand, they will struggle to maintain the supply chain for batteries in particular.

I'll start then! I actually love the Fisker Ocean. I'd consider it if it was large enough for my needs. But that's about it from what's *currently* available.

That said, I'm VERY interested in what's going to be coming out of the Kia and Polestar lineup short term. I am very much in love with both of their platforms, and very much love the aggressive styling of both brands. I could happily see myself considering any 3-row SUV that either announced soon. In fact, if I was in the market for a second vehicle, I'd get one of their current offerings tomorrow (the EV6 or 2, respectively).

It just seems to me that Ford, GM, and Stellantis are *way* behind in the SUV front. Which is especially disappointing given how much Ford and GM are hyping EVs.

 

[koersontap]

Also, I think Sandy really hit the head on the nail with this piece:

 

[ERguy]

Ford will sell Lightnings to people who already buy F-150s, which is a lot of people, but I don't see them expanding their market, it will just gradually replace their ICE truck sales.

This is a popular theory I read online, but most people are then surprised to learn Ford has turned this theory upside down.

Almost 80% of Lightning reservations are held by people who do not currently own a Ford.

This means the lightning sales will mostly be in addition to ICE F150 sales, not in place of ICE F150 sales as many people think.

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/08/04/ford-july-sales.html

 

[ChrissyOne]

This is a popular theory I read online, but most people are then surprised to learn Ford has turned this theory upside down.

Almost 80% of Lightning reservations are held by people who do not currently own a Ford.

THis means the lightning sales will mostly be in addition to ICE F150 sales, not in place of ICE F150 sales and many people think.

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/08/04/ford-july-sales.html

We'll see if that pans out! I'm not putting a lot of faith in reservations, just yet, though. Once they're actually out and being reviewed, that could change.

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