Updates on Rivian production ramp from 3rd S-1 amendment [filed 11/5]

[Vserra]

Late 2023 date makes a lot more sense now. They are being cautious with how fast they think they can ramp up. Still probably means someone like me with a May 2021 reservation won't have any chance next year, but hopefully it means at least all the early reservations get filled.

I am an early May 2021 ressie holder too. It's crazy just a few months ago folks we're being told 2Q or 3Q was feasible with slightly earlier reservations than ours. I never thought that was necessarily likely but I did think Q4 2022 was a possibility. I think your right though that 2022 (hopefully early) is more realistic for us unless they overdeliver. Given where they were when they first filed they S1 I'd imagine we're somewhere in the low 40' in terms of place in line. Good luck!

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[LoneStar]

Same here... first day Lightning reservation, 10/21 Rivian reservation. I'm thinking of picking up the Lightning with a $12,500 tax discount. If it holds value like a Tesla I could sell it after 18 months without much loss. (According to the math above I won't get my R1T until March, 2023, assuming they sell in the he order of reservation.)

Hey, you're copying my plan! Very early Lightning reservation holder as well being # 10816066. Not certain where that stands but I believe well below first 10k. At this point I am resigned to getting a Lightning Lariat with large battery & tech/trailer packages. Figured it will be priced in the same range as R1T L.E. Will hold onto my Q3 2020 R1T reservation but likely revert to Explore pkg and Max-pak battery since the urgency will be absent - and keeping it under the $80k threshold for tax credit.

 

[Guy]

Not disagreeing since your numbers might end up being 100% accurate, but I think its important to realize that they aren't trying to improve by X% per week.

It's a subtle difference, but it's why there is hope that they will reach their annual production rate faster (and why ramp ups are generally described as hockey sticks).

The key is Rivian isn't starting from 104 per week and saying "what can we do to improve it by X% next week". Instead they designed the complete production line to be able to produce 1,310 R1s per week (from the S1 3rd amendment):

​

Our target is to produce approximately 1,310 R1 vehicles a week, which when annualized (assuming 49.6 working weeks per year)​

The ramp up isn't trying to make a process that is only able to make 104 per week and gradually improve it. Instead the reason they are producing 104 per week instead of the 1310 is because a few (how many we will probably never know) stations are either understaffed (they talk about hiring in the S1), not functioning as expected (ex. the people at the station can't move fast enough to keep up with the expected build rate), robot not functioning properly (ex. custom robot works 9 out of 10 times, but then a person has to manually fix it, to reach 1310 the robot needs to work 100,000 out of 100,001 times), missing a robot/fixture (ex. supply chain limited ability to setup the station as designed), not enough parts to actually build 1310 per week (simple supply chain issues), etc.

What you say makes sense. The 50000 they are planning for is ridiculously low both in terms of sales (more will come in, international expansion etc)but also running a factory at one third capacity two plus years after real manufacture starts is financially a bad idea. They should be at 100000 plus the EDVs in a reasonable time say Q1 2023 rather than get to half that level a year later. Time will tell.

 

[AndroidAppBundle]

Yes. R1S buyers in 2021 will have to wait until Q2-Q3 2024. I still believe this.

Prior to this time, there will be a trickle of vehicles making their way out. But for the poster asking how long till I get my R1S if I order now; yes - you will be waiting until Q2-Q3 2024.

https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/time-to-delivery-if-i-order-now.1929/post-49174

"I am in your camp as well. To properly set expectations for myself; I don’t think R1S deliveries start until Q3 2024, with my vehicle R1S not being delivered until 2025. Rivian may exceed these expectations. Or not. But they are realistic "




There are others too.

 

[Guy]

Yes. R1S buyers in 2021 will have to wait until Q2-Q3 2024. I still believe this.

Prior to this time, there will be a trickle of vehicles making their way out. But for the poster asking how long till I get my R1S if I order now; yes - you will be waiting until Q2-Q3 2024.

If you are right then this is ridiculous. Ford in a retrofitted factory made 47000 Mach E in a year and that is a completely new vehicle fir them.

 

[timf]

If you are righty then this is ridiculous. Ford in a retrofitted factory made 47000 Mach E in a year and that is a completely new vehicle fir them.

AndroidAppBundle is the only person with this pessimistic of a view of the delivery schedule. I would not worry, they will be readily available for everyone in 2023.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

If you are right then this is ridiculous. Ford in a retrofitted factory made 47000 Mach E in a year and that is a completely new vehicle fir them.

Ford has been building cars for ~100 years. They invented mass production. That's a lot of experience to draw on. The only thing holding them back is the parts shortages that everyone else is dealing with.

That said, I'm not buying into the pessimism. Rivian got a lot of help from Ford in getting their production line together. IMO, that's why we're seeing some pretty high build quality comments in the reviews, despite those reviewers getting pre-production units. Rivian isn't anywhere near being over optimistic when they say late 2023 to complete all pre-order deliveries. They're being super conservative.

 

[Guy]

Ford has been building cars for ~100 years. They invented mass production. That's a lot of experience to draw on. The only thing holding them back is the parts shortages that everyone else is dealing with.

That said, I'm not buying into the pessimism. Rivian got a lot of help from Ford in getting their production line together. IMO, that's why we're seeing some pretty high build quality comments in the reviews, despite those reviewers getting pre-production units. Rivian isn't anywhere near being over optimistic when they say late 2023 to complete all pre-order deliveries. They're being super conservative.

Completely agree they are being conservative and that Ford had more experience. Rivian does have Ford help and an existing factory so there are reasons for expecting a significant number to be built next year. The factory needs to be fully utilized by late 2023 onwards for financial reasons.

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