? Rivian IPO S1 Filing - reveals preorder numbers, R1S delivery date, Autonomous Subscription Fee & more...

[SantaFeSpence]

Details on the states they can sell in / are barred from on 139:

Cleared for sales:

• Alaska
• Arizona
• California
• Colorado
• Delaware
• Florida
• Hawaii
• Idaho
• Illinois
• Maryland
• Massachusetts
• Minnesota
• Mississippi
• Missouri
• New Hampshire
• Oregon
• Rhode Island
• Tennessee
• Utah
• Vermont
• Virginia
• Wyoming

Restricted states. Rivian cannot get a dealer license directly here:

• Alabama
• Arkansas
• Connecticut
• Georgia
• Indiana
• Iowa
• Louisiana
• Kansas
• Kentucky
• Maine
• Michigan
• Montana
• Nebraska
• Nevada
• New Jersey
• New Mexico
• New York
• North Carolina
• North Dakota
• Ohio
• Oklahoma
• Pennsylvania
• South Carolina
• South Dakota
• Texas
• Washington
• West Virginia
• Wisconsin

These states will not let Rivian open a service station directly:

• Alabama
• Louisiana
• New Jersey
• New Mexico
• North Carolina
• Pennsylvania
• South Carolina
• West Virginia

In these problem states, it does not appear that you'll be able to meet with anyone with Rivian directly, including for a test drive.

As I live in New Mexico, this is concerning. We had the same issue with Tesla - but I bought mine on line and have not needed to get their mobile service out to me. Until now, if I needed in-shop service I’d need to arrange to get my car to Colorado or Texas or Arizona. That would be an absolute PITA. Just last month Tesla was able to get around the NM Dealer’s Association blockade by opening a sales and service center on Indian land just north of Santa Fe.. I’m wondering if Rivian will go the same route?

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[jimrichard]

That is insanely optimistic. If they can produce 150k vehicles in 2022, that would mean every pre-order would be delivered before the end of summer.

It's got to be BS. Even orders for the launch edition or said to take through the spring of 2022. I just can't expect to get my r1t reserved in 6/20 to be here before 2023.

 

[kanundrum]

Besides, I think I did the math on Reddit in the Motor Trend AMA and determined that they were able to charge about 80kwh (20-80% on the curve) in about 30 minutes on electrify America in real life on a preproduction unit. That sets the average at about 160 KW. The word is that it should also improve over time.

Key takeaway is that it's not just about peak throughput, but also about the overall curve. This sets it at on par with the current Audi e-tron curve and just a touch under the Hyundai egmp platform where it averages at around 190 kilowatt through the curve.

Fully agree curve is better than peak, my main concern was buying something that is "future proof" where having a 800v architecture will enable better longevity in the battery as less heat/amps occur during charging even if its the same time or a few minutes difference.

Also to be clear if they have 800v style charging (2x parallel) that is also the same but they haven't mentioned it currently and sometimes the SEC information could have been written and not reflecting 1000% accurately (see destination fee at $1700 where configurator says $1075).

Bottom line I have to see the charging curve to see if its a viable vehicle for us (because it has to work on the 1% time you do in fact go on a road trip). I had planned on using this vehicle within the first few weeks of its life to do a 8,000 mile road trip full disclosure.

 

[Bobthebuilder352]

Better yet, they should bill by the feature use.
Drifting in your lane while you text? $1.
Changing lanes without first activating the turn signal? $1
Assisted braking to make up for your inattention? $1

If all OEMs do this, it will be a better world.

You have a weird fetish if you’re serious about this.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Fully agree curve is better than peak, my main concern was buying something that is "future proof" where having a 800v architecture will enable better longevity in the battery as less heat/amps occur during charging even if its the same time or a few minutes difference.

Also to be clear if they have 800v style charging (2x parallel) that is also the same but they haven't mentioned it currently and sometimes the SEC information could have been written and not reflecting 1000% accurately (see destination fee at $1700 where configurator says $1075).

Bottom line I have to see the charging curve to see if its a viable vehicle for us (because it has to work on the 1% time you do in fact go on a road trip). I had planned on using this vehicle within the first few weeks of its life to do a 8,000 mile road trip full disclosure.

TBH no first gen Rivian will be "future proof" beyond 5 years because of the state of battery technology and the go-to-market timeline for many of the upcoming next gen batteries.

It doesn't mean 800V wouldn't be nice to have, but even with 800V they would still be functionally obsolete in 5 years.

 

[kanundrum]

TBH no first gen Rivian will be "future proof" beyond 5 years because of the state of battery technology and the go-to-market timeline for many of the upcoming next gen batteries.

It doesn't mean 800V wouldn't be nice to have, but even with 800V they would still be functionally obsolete in 5 years.

I don't know about functionally obsolete but it would be still a valid vehicle that had the potential of a better charge curve than something 5 years later down the road with just 450v.

In any case that is always the situation with all tech, just trying to get the best out of what you buy once rather than having to upgrade in 5 years (which I hate doing) because I hate the whole concept of buying again as it creates more waste etc.

 

[skyote]

What’s a ‘rivn’?

The upcoming stock ticker for Rivian.

 

[RWerksman]

The upcoming stock ticker for Rivian.

I thought it was going to be

SOON

 

[Scott]

TBH no first gen Rivian will be "future proof" beyond 5 years because of the state of battery technology and the go-to-market timeline for many of the upcoming next gen batteries.

It doesn't mean 800V wouldn't be nice to have, but even with 800V they would still be functionally obsolete in 5 years.

Devil's advocate position: In 5 years way more people will have owned an EV and realized that they don't need more than 200 miles of range 95%+ of the days of the year and the charging networks could be way better, thus reducing range anxiety. Therefore some people won't really see a drastic difference between a 400mi and a 300mi range car.

So in 5 years a ~300mi vehicle will still be fine. Improvements in battery technology would still make an equivalent 300 mi new car lighter and therefore more efficient, but I don't think that will be a massive deal.

 

[Temerarius]

Just last month Tesla was able to get around the NM Dealer’s Association blockade by opening a sales and service center on Indian land just north of Santa Fe.. I’m wondering if Rivian will go the same route?

Honestly, this was one of those glorious moments that makes me chuckle with glee. When I read that article on this, I thought that was amazingly brilliant on the part of both parties.

I seriously hope that every tribe on every restricted or banned state is now reaching out to the EV manufacturers.

It would be an immense win on both sides of that coin... and a great way of sticking it to the dealership associations and the useless legislatures in their back pockets.

I don't know about functionally obsolete but it would be still a valid vehicle that had the potential of a better charge curve than something 5 years later down the road with just 450v.

I will caveat my statements around charging by noting that in the 3-4 years of owning my Tesla X 100D, I've used Superchargers a grand total of 12 times.

...I don't foresee that use pattern to change much (might well go down given the greater range I'll have in the R1T Max).

I agree that curve is more important to me than peak.

Pulling 350Kw for 5 mins, then dropping to 100Kw< for 40 is less appealing to me vs 150Kw for 30 mins, and 10 mins at 100Kw<.

 

[SantaFeSpence]

Honestly, this was one of those glorious moments that makes me chuckle with glee. When I read that article on this, I thought that was amazingly brilliant on the part of both parties.

I Honestly hope that every tribe on every restricted or banned state is now reaching out to the EV manufacturers.

It would be an immense win on both sides of that coin... and a great way of sticking it to the dealership associations and the useless legislatures in their back pockets.

Amen to that! Rivian - Are you listening?

 

[electruck]

That is insanely optimistic. If they can produce 150k vehicles in 2022, that would mean every pre-order would be delivered before the end of summer.

Perhaps not. Is that 150k R1T/S or just 150k vehicles? I suspect that also includes production of EDVs for Amazon and I don't believe we know the capacity split between R1 and EDV.

 

[skyote]

Perhaps not. Is that 150k R1T/S or just 150k vehicles? I suspect that also includes production of EDVs for Amazon and I don't believe we know the capacity split between R1 and EDV.

RPV/EDV is actually capable of up to 17/hr, where R1 is less, believe it or not. R1 line will be updated at some point, but not in the near future.

 

[Aroohoo]

Perhaps not. Is that 150k R1T/S or just 150k vehicles? I suspect that also includes production of EDVs for Amazon and I don't believe we know the capacity split between R1 and EDV.

I believe the 150k is for all vehicles out of Normal given its current footprint (page 82). Anyone's guess to how that is split. We do know that they have at least two final assembly lines as they've said that EDVs are on a different line. We don't know what is shared between the lines (e.g. paint booths, chemical treatment lines, etc.) however that should be factored into their 150k total. For my analysis at the moment, I've assumed 2 lines with capacity equally split, so 75k for R1T/S and 75k for EDV. My Optimistic first year production estimate is 50k per line, low end of 15k per line, with a most likely of 35k assuming limited impacts from supply constraints. This is based on extrapolating what Tesla did with the Model 3 and Model Y ramp from the Fremont factory (Rivian seems to be more mature than Tesla was with the Model S, so the Model 3/Y seems to be an appropriate benchmark).

On a related note, I think the absolute minimum EDVs produced each year is 5,000. Page 172 of the prospectus, it implies that they expect Amazon to order a minimum of 5,000 EDVs a year as Rivian has the right to cancel the Amazon contract if they don't order at least 10,000 EDV for two consecutive years.
Amazon also has a 4 year exclusive agreement to purchase EDVs starting at first delivery and right of first refusal for the next 2 years.
That said, given Amazon's push for last mile delivery, their pivot to be more environmentally friendly, and perhaps most importantly their relentless drive to be cost efficient (the EDV is going to cheaper to operate than the box trucks they use now) I would expect Amazon to buy all the EDVs Rivian can produce and then some.

 

[Tim-in-CA]

As I live in New Mexico, this is concerning. We had the same issue with Tesla - but I bought mine on line and have not needed to get their mobile service out to me. Until now, if I needed in-shop service I’d need to arrange to get my car to Colorado or Texas or Arizona. That would be an absolute PITA. Just last month Tesla was able to get around the NM Dealer’s Association blockade by opening a sales and service center on Indian land just north of Santa Fe.. I’m wondering if Rivian will go the same route?

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