Ford Ditches Electric SUV: Is it Time to Address the Elephant in the Room?

[Ralph]

What is your point, exactly? Of course VW is getting something. That isn't at issue. If VW doesn't step in, Rivian has to go borrow from capital markets (and may still have to) at rates that aren't going to help them become profitable.

My point is that it was not a bailout; it was an investment. Subtle, I know....

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[Jonger1150]

Apparently you don't read well if this is the dumbest thing you've read because I never said Rivian should sell a hybrid or PHEV. I said they should leverage their partnership with VW to provide their IP for battery/electric motor for something co-developed with VW and sold by VW.

Rivian doesn't have a good path if the demand in the market isn't there.

Every OEM not named Tesla is bleeding $$ on EV's because the market has spoken and people want hybrids and PHEV's.

There is no uptick in hybrid demand.

There are numerous Toyota and Honda models that are slowly phasing out ICE only options and those are HUGE selling vehicles. I don't believe anyone is actively searching for hybrids, they're just not car enthusiasts and their boring brand of choice is Toyota & Honda. Ford has also started offering hybrid models of their trucks. Those trucks are top 10 selling vehicles in the US. Even if 10% of those buyers opt for the hybrid, that will artificially show a surge in hybrid demand.

Camry = Hybrid only (top selling vehicle in the US for about a decade)
RAV4 = Hybrid is only $2500 more than pure ICE(Hybrid will be only option soon)
Corolla =Hybrid about $2500 more than pure ICE (Hybrid will be only option soon)
CRV = Hybrid $3500 more than ICE (Going pure hybrid soon) Major seller

Gas prices are pretty low right now if you look at inflation. $2.90 to $3.50 in more of the country.

There is a tremendous amount of unknowns for most buyers due to successful misinformation from oil companies and Toyota. I will never buy a Toyota product again.

 

[emoore]

I don't disagree with you. But they offer a path to electrification for consumers that are deeply skeptical of EV's and don't want a lifestyle change.

The numbers in terms of hybrid and PHEV sales are irrefutable and that is what is driving OEMs to back off of plans to introduce EV only lineups and to extend their plans for ICE and hybrid/PHEV vehicles.

The question is how does Rivian survive in this climate?

And most plug in hybrids are never plugged in. That’s the problem. People won’t change until they are forced to.

if Rivian makes a gas powered anything I’ll be leaving the brand.

 

[josh0]

Wrong market.

And maybe it’s the lack of small, affordable EVs that’s the problem. Generally, the people in the US who are going to be buying EVs are urbanites, and generally, a three-row SUV or pickup isn’t going to be the right choice for them. Hyundai and Kia have been doing quite well with smaller EVs, and even the Nissan Leaf and BMW i3 are fairly common to see in some places. I think that the R2 and especially R3 are going to create a real shift in how many Rivians we see on the street, as they are simply more practical vehicles for most people (and more affordable, in theory). I adore my R1T when I’m in New Mexico, but I also spend a lot of time in Baltimore where it’s a bit unwieldy. I would love an R3 for a town car.

 

[SASSquatch]

We need a new poll.

Will Rivian ever make a product that Sassquatch will actually take delivery on?

My vote is for a poll for when Ralph will actually say something useful

And most plug in hybrids are never plugged in. That’s the problem. People won’t change until they are forced to.

We are on the same page. In fact, plug-in hybrids are the worst of both worlds. They typically get less MPG than the hybrid only equivalent if they aren't plugged in because you are carrying extra weight and many don't plug them in.

I'm not arguing against logic here, I'm arguing with consumer sentiment and what it means for Rivian.

 

[RWerksman]

Here is the real story:

Most folks are doing just fine as of the end of Q1. Q2 looks better, if you check out the KBB report: https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-conte...y-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf

A few things worth noting:

• Tesla is still down nearly 10% for the year, wiping out a ton of gains by others.
• The Model 3 is down 30%+ this year. Woof.
• GM is having a bad time because they sold a ton of Bolts last year, few this year.
• ID4 is down nearly 30% this year.
• Volvo XC40 and C40 have effectively fell off a cliff in 2024.

 

[SASSquatch]

And maybe it’s the lack of small, affordable EVs that’s the problem. Generally, the people in the US who are going to be buying EVs are urbanites, and generally, a three-row SUV or pickup isn’t going to be the right choice for them. Hyundai and Kia have been doing quite well with smaller EVs, and even the Nissan Leaf and BMW i3 are fairly common to see in some places. I think that the R2 and especially R3 are going to create a real shift in how many Rivians we see on the street, as they are simply more practical vehicles for most people (and more affordable, in theory). I adore my R1T when I’m in New Mexico, but I also spend a lot of time in Baltimore where it’s a bit unwieldy. I would love an R3 for a town car.

Rivian is losing over $30K for every R1 they sell. I want to believe they can bring a mass market R2 or R3 (I'm putting down a reservation on the R3 the moment it opens) but I'm worried that they don't have the capital to make that happen.

 

[emoore]

Here is the real story:

Most folks are doing just fine as of the end of Q1. Q2 looks better, if you check out the KBB report: https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-conte...y-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf

A few things worth noting:

• Tesla is still down nearly 10% for the year, wiping out a ton of gains by others.
• The Model 3 is down 30%+ this year. Woof.
• GM is having a bad time because they sold a ton of Bolts last year, few this year.
• ID4 is down nearly 30% this year.
• Volvo XC40 and C40 have effectively fell off a cliff in 2024.

Yeah and Tesla has another reason their sales dropped. Their CEO is not helping sales at all.

 

[josh0]

It’s also worth pointing out that while Ford has ditched their plan for a large electric SUV, they’ve explicitly said that the plan is to instead focus on smaller, more affordable EVs.

 

[Jonger1150]

And most plug in hybrids are never plugged in. That’s the problem. People won’t change until they are forced to.

if Rivian makes a gas powered anything I’ll be leaving the brand.

Same.

 

[emoore]

Rivian is losing over $30K for every R1 they sell. I want to believe they can bring a mass market R2 or R3 (I'm putting down a reservation on the R3 the moment it opens) but I'm worried that they don't have the capital to make that happen.

And how do they get the capital to setup an ICE production line? They are all in on EVs or bust.

 

[richpike]

You’re also forgetting the entire EDV market for Rivian…

-Rich

 

[RWerksman]

Yeah and Tesla has another reason their sales dropped. Their CEO is not helping sales at all.

That, and their lineup is OLD. The Model 3, until recently, was introduced in 2017. The Y in 2020. The S and X are older than that. Car buyers want freshness to a certain extent.

 

[SASSquatch]

Here is the real story:

Most folks are doing just fine as of the end of Q1. Q2 looks better, if you check out the KBB report: https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-conte...y-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf

A few things worth noting:

• Tesla is still down nearly 10% for the year, wiping out a ton of gains by others.
• The Model 3 is down 30%+ this year. Woof.
• GM is having a bad time because they sold a ton of Bolts last year, few this year.
• ID4 is down nearly 30% this year.
• Volvo XC40 and C40 have effectively fell off a cliff in 2024.

But the percentages are still extremely small relative to what those same OEMS are selling in hybrids, PHEV's and ICE.

OEMS are not making money on the EV's they are selling (except Tesla). They are making money on everything else, which is why every OEM not producing purely EVs is pulling back on their EV development roadmaps.

 

[Jonger1150]

And most plug in hybrids are never plugged in. That’s the problem. People won’t change until they are forced to.

if Rivian makes a gas powered anything I’ll be leaving the brand.

The tax credit for those needs to be discontinued.

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