Ford "PRICE WAR" drives RIVN under $10

[Zoidz]

"RIVN stock slid 6.7% through noon ET on Thursday -- but not because of any mistake that Rivian made.

This time, the blame belongs to Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F), which just declared a price war in electric trucks, and turned Rivian stock into roadkill in the process.

Have you driven a Ford lately? (Because it's cheaper than it used to be)
Any day now, Ford archrival General Motors (NYSE: GM) will begin selling its new Silverado EV electric pickup truck in competition with Ford's F-150 Lightning. Ford saw its automotive rival inching closer in the rearview, however, and is gunning the motor to stay ahead -- lowering the price of some F-150 Lightning models by as much as $5,500, as CarsDirect.com reported this week.

It's not entirely clear whether this move will be enough to maintain Ford's lead over Chevy. Notably, the lowest-trim "Pro" F-150 Lightning still costs a pricey $54,995, and the most expensive "Platinum" Lightning still costs a nosebleed $84,995. (Price cuts are all on the mid-tier vehicles). What is clear is that Ford's pre-emptive strike at Chevy, and the price war it foreshadows, seems to be spooking investors in Rivian."

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[jjswan33]

Said it already elsewhere but day traders don't know anything about Rivian's value or potential. Rivian could exit the R1T business tomorrow and it wouldn't materially effect it's future potential.

Sounds like a buying opportunity for RIVN but I will admit that Rivian R1T inventory suggests not a lot of demand, especially for the more expensive builds. For example I noticed that there are at least 150 max pack R1Ts available in my area's shop, many are 2023 model year. So I wouldn't be surprised by a price cut on Max pack R1Ts sometime soon, or a larger discount to clear inventory.

 

[Biturbowned]

I’ve been buying today, BoA PT yesterday of $21…

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Said it already elsewhere but day traders don't know anything about Rivian's value or potential. Rivian could exit the R1T business tomorrow and it wouldn't materially effect it's future potential.

Was just thinking about how the R1T specifically is probably the smallest portion of Rivian's revenue now and looking into the future. I wouldnt' be surprised if Rivian sold less R1T this year than EDVs. I think I read something recently that Ford had delayed their only competition for the R1S to 2027.

 

[Dark-Fx]

For example I noticed that there are at least 150 max pack R1Ts available in my area's shop, many are 2023 model year. So I wouldn't be surprised by a price cut on Max pack R1Ts sometime soon, or a larger discount to clear inventory.

Based on the NHTSA VIN change, Rivian will be able to sell the Max pack vehicles as a standard pack vehicle if they really want to. I'd be surprised to see actual cuts in MSRP before they make an announcement about the specific changes that have happened during the plant shutdown.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Was just thinking about how the R1T specifically is probably the smallest portion of Rivian's revenue now and looking into the future. I wouldnt' be surprised if Rivian sold less R1T this year than EDVs. I think I read something recently that Ford had delayed their only competition for the R1S to 2027.

I saw one of the Lincoln EV SUVs the other day. Looked okay but I'm not a big fan of Lincoln styling in general. I drive by the Ford Proving grounds on my commute so end up seeing a lot of pre-production Ford vehicles that they've driven out there.

 

[LetsgoRIVN]

If that’s the reason the stock should rebound shortly, no fund or big shareholder would liquidate because of twist ford did. That’s not a huge fundamental reason to create panic

 

[jjswan33]

Based on the NHTSA VIN change, Rivian will be able to sell the Max pack vehicles as a standard pack vehicle if they really want to. I'd be surprised to see actual cuts in MSRP before they make an announcement about the specific changes that have happened during the plant shutdown.

I agree I suspect and reduction will be in lease rates, PPF deals or other. They don't want to cut things across the board and lose R1S revenue where demand is stronger.

 

[TexasBob]

I think the market really misunderstands Rivian's products if it thinks there is significant cross-shopping of F150 and R1.

 

[Biturbowned]

Fun fact: RIVN now has the same market cap as Vinfast…

 

[fbkr]

The R1S is by far their most important vehicle right now. R1T/EDV are sideshows.

What's more interesting to me than the Ford news is the doubling of R1S shop inventory to ~250 units this week. I think R1S demand should be the biggest driver of the stock (along with margin progression) until we get to R2.

 

[COCORIVIAN]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news but...numbers don't look too pretty for the stock at the moment. Fingers crossed something happens here soon or else they're in big trouble.

"

Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A (RIVN) is currently at $9.48, down $0.80 or 7.74%


--Would be new all-time low (Based on available data back to Nov. 10, 2021)


--Would be the first record closing low since Feb. 23, 2024, when it closed at $10.07


--On pace for largest percent decrease since March 14, 2024, when it fell 8.71%


--Currently down two consecutive days; down 10.87% over this period


--Worst two day stretch since the two days ending March 14, 2024, when it fell 13.58%


--Down 13.47% month-to-date


--Down 59.61% year-to-date


--Down 94.49% from its all-time closing high of $172.01 on Nov. 16, 2021


--Down 34.06% from 52 weeks ago (April 13, 2023), when it closed at $14.37


--Down 65.72% from its 52-week closing high of $27.64 on July 31, 2023


--Would be a new 52-week closing low


--Traded as low as $9.45; new all-time intraday low (Based on available data back to Nov. 10, 2021)


--Down 7.98% at today's intraday low; largest intraday percent decrease since March 14, 2024, when it fell as much as 9.99%


All data as of 10:53:17 AM ET


Source: Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet

 

[JayinNJ]

If that’s the reason the stock should rebound shortly, no fund or big shareholder would liquidate because of twist ford did. That’s not a huge fundamental reason to create panic

It also signals general weakness in sales in the EV truck segment.

 

[Tahoe Man]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news but...numbers don't look too pretty for the stock at the moment. Fingers crossed something happens here soon or else they're in big trouble.

"

Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A (RIVN) is currently at $9.48, down $0.80 or 7.74%


--Would be new all-time low (Based on available data back to Nov. 10, 2021)


--Would be the first record closing low since Feb. 23, 2024, when it closed at $10.07


--On pace for largest percent decrease since March 14, 2024, when it fell 8.71%


--Currently down two consecutive days; down 10.87% over this period


--Worst two day stretch since the two days ending March 14, 2024, when it fell 13.58%


--Down 13.47% month-to-date


--Down 59.61% year-to-date


--Down 94.49% from its all-time closing high of $172.01 on Nov. 16, 2021


--Down 34.06% from 52 weeks ago (April 13, 2023), when it closed at $14.37


--Down 65.72% from its 52-week closing high of $27.64 on July 31, 2023


--Would be a new 52-week closing low


--Traded as low as $9.45; new all-time intraday low (Based on available data back to Nov. 10, 2021)


--Down 7.98% at today's intraday low; largest intraday percent decrease since March 14, 2024, when it fell as much as 9.99%


All data as of 10:53:17 AM ET


Source: Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet

The writing was on the wall weeks ago when CNBC LeBeau cornered RJ regarding having to go back for another capital raise.

Nothing is going to be easy for Rivian going forward. RIVN hitting new lows just adds to their misery.

 

[Chris TX]

It was a helluva deal when I bought just north of $11. It's even more a helluva deal under $10!

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