New Battery Pack Design (not Standard Pack) & Architecture Coming in 2024 confirms Rivian CFO

[Millertimr]

I think many of the assumptions you are making here are incorrect. Every data point we have aligns with a switch to 800v coming in April, along with the introduction of the in-house quad motor system designed on that architecture, and of course the completely re-designed ECU and wiring system, which I highly doubt they would build around an old architecture. Keep in mind that RJ has stated many times that the changes we will see in R1 in April will be the foundation of what goes into R2. And while this set of changes has been a very large R&D cost, they have guided to a ~35% reduction in the bill of materials once this is all in place.

I mean they aren't assumptions they have said in earnings calls the goal is simplicity and cost reductions and above they have said it will come in the next generation platform. Please - for my sanity - list out what assumptions I made.

Sponsored

 

[Millertimr]

Not sure if you listen to the earning calls - but it has been explicitt mentioned since before the reddit post it's about cost reductions. If you'd like sources in addition to the above - https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/08/14/rivn-earnings-call-q2-takeaways/

That was back in Q2 and reiterated since then - it's all about cost reductions. Namely the wiring harnesses etc.

It's very common in manufacturing Ford did this with the Mach e/f150 as well and the battery pack was not changed.

https://www.evpulse.com/features/fo...s-configurations-with-2024-f-150-pickup-truck

https://www.theautopian.com/a-mile-...stang-mach-e-fords-new-battle-for-efficiency/

 

[mkhuffman]

Every data point we have aligns with a switch to 800v coming in April, along with the introduction of the in-house quad motor system designed on that architecture, and of course the completely re-designed ECU and wiring system, which I highly doubt they would build around an old architecture.

I think the correct number of data points that says all that is happening in April is zero. Everyone is guessing and reading between the lines. Guesses are not data points.

But I hope you are right. It would be great to see those changes occur in April. Maybe Rivian will provide some real facts between now and then, but I tend to agree with a previous post that they will not want to promote those changes and jeopardize current R1 sales. If the changes are as major as you guess they will be.

 

[Davethadog]

Yes, heat pump is a redesign of all the key components in the heating/cooling loop. More complex than just a swap or addition of one component.

Hence a multi week shutdown. A two week shutdown is HUGE in a business where you’re measuring revenue in the millions per hour.

 

[Twitter Fingers]

I mean they aren't assumptions they have said in earnings calls the goal is simplicity and cost reductions and above they have said it will come in the next generation platform. Please - for my sanity - list out what assumptions I made.

Ok, you made the assumption that "it is just a part refresh" and the assumption that the hypothetical parts being added to the line would be "more expensive". Yes I listen to the earnings calls, analyst calls, and other interviews.

 

[DuoRivians]

Guys, all of this is just speculation. I’d encourage having fun with it but doesn’t seem necessary to introduce conflict

 

[Millertimr]

It really isn't tho - this is what was mentioned in their latest earnings which was reflected in Q2.

- Rivian designed own ECUs, away from Tier 1 ECUs that other OEMs use. This enables Rivian to own software stack and push updates more readily, and not be confined by Tier 1 ECU functions.

- Next year, 60% reduction of ECUs in R1s next year. 25% reduction in wiring harness. $thousands cost savings per vehicle. Forms basis of R2.

& this is the exact transcript - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4648834-rivian-automotive-inc-rivn-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript

You're gonna need a whole lot more than reduction in ecus and wiring to make 800v happen tbh.

These will be parts they use and in combination with the reddit post its amazing to me people still don't understand it - I'm just confused. I q a told everything was assumptions when clearly not.

 

[crashmtb]

Guys, all of this is just speculation. I’d encourage having fun with it but doesn’t seem necessary to introduce conflict

 

[dlbewley]

As a potential tick in the pro-heat-pump column -- during the Q3 2023 earnings call, RJ made a mention of HVAC "simplification" in context of the pending Q2 2024 shutdown. :fingers-crossed:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4648834-rivian-automotive-inc-rivn-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript

And the shutdown that we have in second quarter of next year of 2024, will allow us to implement a large bundling of all of those changes, both in terms of suppliers, part design changes, component changes. I've talked about this a lot in the past, but massive consolidation of our ECU topology, massive simplification of our harness, simplification of our body structure, simplification of the HVAC system in the vehicle. So there's big changes that are going to be coming as part of that shutdown.​

 

[Millertimr]

Ok, you made the assumption that "it is just a part refresh" and the assumption that the hypothetical parts being added to the line would be "more expensive". Yes I listen to the earnings calls, analyst calls, and other interviews.

Okay - so you're argument is it would be cheaper to produce an 800v arcitecture than a 400v, then why wouldn't they do that with the max pack and get them a bigger profit? That just doesn't make sense, the whole idea of manufacturing when you're reducing costs is to streamline it. Adding a whole new BOM, new parts, more things to service, just doesn't make sense.

It is a part refresh - they've already said that, they are refreshing the battery to minimize the ecu and wiring harness usage? I'm confused why you'd see it as anything else?

 

[DuoRivians]

It really isn't tho - this is what was mentioned in their latest earnings which was reflected in Q2.

- Rivian designed own ECUs, away from Tier 1 ECUs that other OEMs use. This enables Rivian to own software stack and push updates more readily, and not be confined by Tier 1 ECU functions.

- Next year, 60% reduction of ECUs in R1s next year. 25% reduction in wiring harness. $thousands cost savings per vehicle. Forms basis of R2.

& this is the exact transcript - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4648834-rivian-automotive-inc-rivn-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript

You're gonna need a whole lot more than reduction in ecus and wiring to make 800v happen tbh.

These will be parts they use and in combination with the reddit post its amazing to me people still don't understand it - I'm just confused. I q a told everything was assumptions when clearly not.

I don’t think anyone is questioning the introduction of network architecture, reduction of ecus and wiring harness.

People are just wondering about the 800v battery pack potential. Personally, I’m not optimistic. But I’m not confident in my position to say others are wrong or to introduce conflict here

 

[DuoRivians]

Don’t shoot me

 

[Millertimr]

Yall are delirious- I hope it happens, but man I bet yall would be ask yourself this - would you pay more for those features? Because otherwise as a shareholder I hope they keep steady - there's not a demand issue and it creates a reason to get the R2 platform. Have a great night y'all! Ima go smoke some weed.

 

[ElGuapo]

It is just a part refresh which is typical and normal in manufacturing. They are moving more towards lean principles and iterating on a part ot make it more cost effective. Introducing a whole new arcitecture, structure, and parts to a line which are more expensive seems wildly counter intuitive to that. The goal is to make the company profitable and assembly simpler - they have plenty of demand still and they said it would be in the next generation of vehicles aka the new which r2 will utilize and eventually I imagine r1 will move to.

Not on topic, but I don’t think they have “plenty of demand” post price hike as stated above. There was a thread yesterday about all the people who “reserved” within last 2-4 months and got configuration emails within the past couple of days.

As a pre price hike R1S owner I can say I wouldn’t buy it again for existing prices. But only one data point there.

 

[DuoRivians]

Not on topic, but I don’t think they have “plenty of demand” post price hike as stated above. There was a thread yesterday about all the people who “reserved” within last 2-4 months and got configuration emails within the past couple of days.

As a pre price hike R1S owner I can say I wouldn’t buy it again for existing prices. But only one data point there.

Quarter end push. And we’re supposed to get our PDM max pack before year end. Post price hike. Looking forward to it!

Sponsored