Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley): Cybertruck could end up just being a ‘side-show’

[DuoRivians]

"...In a research note provocatively asking whether Tesla has since “outgrown” the model, Morgan Stanley presents the thesis that financially the pick-up could end up as a “side-show” to the core equity story—a halo product that shapes perceptions and builds the brand but not one that is relevant in terms of overall volumes...."

Haha!

https://fortune.com/2023/03/09/tesla-cybertruck-may-end-up-being-a-side-show-morgan-stanley-warns/

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[DuoRivians]

Link to Morgan Stanley piece:

 

[jollyroger]

I'm just waiting for the stoplight interaction where the Cybertruck driver is pointing at my Rivian R1T and laughing, I'm pointing at the Cybertruck and laughing. Each firmly believing the other got screwed!

 

[Dark-Fx]

End up? Oh, he didn't mean like a "Big-Top side show"

 

[COdogman]

No way man. It will be a $40,000 bulletproof boat that charges in 5 minutes with 500 mile range. It’s the future because Elon never misses…..

 

[DuoRivians]

Adam Jonas is now on the shit-list for earnings call questions. Hahah

 

[Scoiatael]

Really depends on the price. If they could sell a Dual motor 300 mile range model for $60k, its going to sell fast. If it ends up being priced like the Model S Plaid, then I don't expect much demand.

 

[DuoRivians]

Really depends on the price. If they could sell a Dual motor 300 mile range model for $60k, its going to sell fast. If it ends up being priced like the Model S Plaid, then I don't expect much demand.

Jonas is saying they're not going to make many to begin with, regardless of price.

 

[Scoiatael]

Jonas is saying they're not going to make many to begin with, regardless of price.

Pretty much what Tesla has said already. Production starts in summer but its going to be very slow. Volume production won't start until 2024. I doubt more than 500 units will be built this year.

 

[DuoRivians]

Pretty much what Tesla has said already. Production starts in summer but its going to be very slow. Volume production won't start until 2024. I doubt more than 500 units will be built this year.

It's not just 2023. It's in perpetuity. Jonas is saying Tesla is more likely to come up with a new truck model.

Read the article.

 

[Dark-Fx]

It's not just 2023. It's in perpetuity. Jonas is saying Tesla is more likely to come up with a new truck model.

Read the article.

I almost reserved the CT thinking the reveal was just a weird joke. I have to imagine I'm not alone in feeling that way. Usually weird jokes don't go on for four years though.

 

[DuoRivians]

I almost reserved the CT thinking the reveal was just a weird joke. I have to imagine I'm not alone in feeling that way. Usually weird jokes don't go on for four years though.

I had 5 ordered at one point, since they were only $100 a piece and I thought Elon was amazing.

Since then, I've learned from my mistake and I've canceled all 5.

 

[Dark-Fx]

I thought Elon was amazing.

Not sure if we can be friends anymore.

 

[Scoiatael]

It's not just 2023. It's in perpetuity. Jonas is saying Tesla is more likely to come up with a new truck model.

Read the article.

That is highly unlikely. Tesla is very slow with introducing new models. If they do come up with a new truck model, it will be at least 5 years before it enters production.

 

[MaskedRacerX]

Really depends on the price. If they could sell a Dual motor 300 mile range model for $60k, its going to sell fast. If it ends up being priced like the Model S Plaid, then I don't expect much demand.

The current speculation is a dual, 320-330 mile range, for $~75K, then two quad-motor variants, one being 400 mile range around mid-90s, the other 500 (with like a 200kWh battery). Pricing about $110-115K.

The range is based around a ~2.5 mile / kWh efficiency, which is probably pretty close? I guess there's going to be some insane 24" wheel option (or standard for the quad trims), that I'd imagine will greatly impact the range.

Those right out of the ether, aka, people's backsides, BUT I do kind of agree on the pricing based on existing cars, Tesla trends, market space, etc.

edit: fixed efficiency units

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