Rivian IPO?

[EVTrucking]

I agree. I do think 5 years from now they may be the first real competition to Tesla. With SUV and Trucks being what most people chose to drive I think Rivian future is bright if they diversify into varying price points and sizes of vehicles.

Agree. Five yrs from now Tesla will have a lot more competition than Rivian.

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[Doug]

Agree. Five yrs from now Tesla will have a lot more competition than Rivian.

It will be interesting to see how Tesla manages with a lot more competition. It's cybertruck and semi may really help it. I am not a fan of their cars although I guess they call them "SUV's". They remind me of the hatchbacks from the 80's. I apologize to all the Tesla fans out there, just my opinion.

 

[crashmtb]

It will be interesting to see how Tesla manages with a lot more competition. It's cybertruck and semi may really help it. I am not a fan of their cars although I guess they call them "SUV's". They remind me of the hatchbacks from the 80's. I apologize to all the Tesla fans out there, just my opinion.

Mr. Musk will probably get bored of making cars once others are doing a better job of it, take his ball and go back to his home planet. ?

 

[Attesan997]

It will be interesting to see how Tesla manages with a lot more competition. It's cybertruck and semi may really help it. I am not a fan of their cars although I guess they call them "SUV's". They remind me of the hatchbacks from the 80's. I apologize to all the Tesla fans out there, just my opinion.

Is there much to apologize for? Tesla really doesn't have SUVs in the traditional sense. They have lifted cars, the Model Y seats are literally Model 3 seats on risers. I guess the X is close enough but its not built for more than people moving.

 

[Whataboykie!]

Just read that Rivian secured another $2.5B investment. That makes them have over $10.5 Billion in debt without delivering anything other than maybe a few Bezos vans.
Don't know how they can come up with a $50-$70 billion valuation.
IPO! Not for me. There are all these big investors that will claim more than the measly few share I might get.
At least with Tesla you can see them building Giga Factories, battery factories, buying up mines, securing raw material deliveries for themselves that all others are gonna be fighting for.
Rivian should first become profitable and then try for the IPO. That will be in about 4-5 years!

 

[Trekkie]

Do you guys think it would be a traditional IPO or one of these reverse merger SPAC's that we are seeing most of the EV startups use?

Between Nikola and Lordstown I think SPACs might become suddenly less popular. Not in finance though, but the sentiment on them is waning.

 

[Gshenderson]

Maybe a good plan is to buy Rivian stock now and in 2+ yrs when my truck is finally ready sell the stock to pay for it. Or not…..

If I had bought TSLA stock instead of my Model S in 2015, my “investment” would now be worth $1.5 million vs $30k. It’s been a fun car though…. ?

 

[CharonPDX]

When will Rivian go IPO? Will it be just before the 1st LE deliveries to customers? Or?

IMO the recent news releases and otherwise silence points to IPO sometime in August 2021.

Not a chance. They would have to have already filed to IPO, which are public records. And IPOing *DURING* a major product launch is a recipe for disaster. They'd have either IPOed a couple years ago, or will wait until production is humming along.

 

[CharonPDX]

If I had bought TSLA stock instead of my Model S in 2015, my “investment” would now be worth $1.5 million vs $30k. It’s been a fun car though…. ?

Yeah, I only bought one share of $TSLA a few years ago. It's worth ~$3500 now, though, thanks to the 5:1 split and continuing to rise.

My other EV investment is doing amazing, though. I bought 100 shares in Arcimoto ($FUV) at IPO - then bought 1000 shares (at $1.69) a couple months after I took delivery of my FUV in 2019. I cashed in $6000 this last February (to help fund the purchase of a used Tesla,) and still had $28,000ish in stock left! (Sadly, $FUV has been undergoing a short seller FUD campaign, and is down nearly 50% since June - so I'm "only" at +$12,000 on my $1690 investment in 2019. But I expect they'll rise soon when the shorters fail.)

I would happily invest in Rivian, too, should they go public.

 

[Nuclearn8]

Investing in a company that has very little revenue, massive CAPEX and debt, moderate growth (because their products cannot go mainstream/high volume at the current price point), and by and large will not be profitable for a decade is a pure momentum play. Do it with money you're willing to lose unless you're one of those people that can accurately time the market and consumer sentiment. I have invested in Rivian thru Amazon and Ford and Fidelity... as it diversifies the risk to an acceptable level for my tolerance. All that being said Rivian will go public and I'll be curiously watching how it performs from the sidelines. I'll tick with my sideline plays and Toyota stock.

I'm a believer EV sales will increase significantly the next 10-20 years but ICE vehicle will still dominate the large majority of the market share globally. The reality is EV's are nice and make the owner feel good about not emitting however most people just want something affordable and reliable to drive (so long as they have a choice). I think the real solution for personal transport will come from some synthetic biology company that develops a man-made fuel source which can power vehicles and emit no harmful environmental effects. Bio-tech and synthetic biology can and will solve this problem, not mining rare earth elements on a massive scale (which isn't possible to meet all the manufacturer rosy projections) and depending on an aging electrical infrastructure.
We have to be realistic about what can and can't happen.

 

[DuckTruck]

Investing in a company that has very little revenue, massive CAPEX and debt, moderate growth (because their products cannot go mainstream/high volume at the current price point), and by and large will not be profitable for a decade is a pure momentum play. Do it with money you're willing to lose unless you're one of those people that can accurately time the market and consumer sentiment. I have invested in Rivian thru Amazon and Ford and Fidelity... as it diversifies the risk to an acceptable level for my tolerance. All that being said Rivian will go public and I'll be curiously watching how it performs from the sidelines. I'll tick with my sideline plays and Toyota stock.

I'm a believer EV sales will increase significantly the next 10-20 years but ICE vehicle will still dominate the large majority of the market share globally. The reality is EV's are nice and make the owner feel good about not emitting however most people just want something affordable and reliable to drive (so long as they have a choice). I think the real solution for personal transport will come from some synthetic biology company that develops a man-made fuel source which can power vehicles and emit no harmful environmental effects. Bio-tech and synthetic biology can and will solve this problem, not mining rare earth elements on a massive scale (which isn't possible to meet all the manufacturer rosy projections) and depending on an aging electrical infrastructure.
We have to be realistic about what can and can't happen.

That's an interesting take in many respects. I've been hopeful for years when catching stories of possible clean biological fuels that could run in current ice configurations. Corn seems a huge waste, as it reportedly takes a sizable percentage of energy to create fractionally more. Also, it seems a shame to use so much of our richest farmland for fuel purposes rather food. Ethanol-fortified gas isn't kind to the classic cars and other pre-ethanol vehicles, either.

As you pointed out, EVs will continue to grow in percentage of total vehicles, but ICE-based vehicles will be around for a long, long time. Accordingly, it would be helpful for so many reasons, the climate chief amongst them, if a cleaner, sustainable fuel replacement could supplant fossil fuels.

"Pollyanna, Out!"

 

[barsaec]

That's an interesting take in many respects. I've been hopeful for years when catching stories of possible clean biological fuels that could run in current ice configurations. Corn seems a huge waste, as it reportedly takes a sizable percentage of energy to create fractionally more. Also, it seems a shame to use so much of our richest farmland for fuel purposes rather food. Ethanol-fortified gas isn't kind to the classic cars and other pre-ethanol vehicles, either.

As you pointed out, EVs will continue to grow in percentage of total vehicles, but ICE-based vehicles will be around for a long, long time. Accordingly, it would be helpful for so many reasons, the climate chief amongst them, if a cleaner, sustainable fuel replacement could supplant fossil fuels.

"Pollyanna, Out!"

Now WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/ev-com...mc63oo8zbsx&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

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