Rivian customers share thoughts about preordering a vehicle

ajdelange

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As AJ pointed out, I'm a physicist. I'm not so good at social cues, .
Hmmm. There's a possibility you may have been mis diagnosed and are, in actuality, an engineer.

 

jimcgov3

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I am sorry. There is no way there are only 10,000 pre-orders. That number is based on a Research Firm's ability to get people to respond to their marketing questionnaire. I am sure that all of this research was conducted based on that forum or Facebook post, I just don't recall where exactly I saw that....Either way, I think we need to give Rivian more credit than just under 10,000. Time will tell, but I would venture to guess that that number is low by 80-90,000.
 

Lmirafuente

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I am sorry. There is no way there are only 10,000 pre-orders. That number is based on a Research Firm's ability to get people to respond to their marketing questionnaire. I am sure that all of this research was conducted based on that forum or Facebook post, I just don't recall where exactly I saw that....Either way, I think we need to give Rivian more credit than just under 10,000. Time will tell, but I would venture to guess that that number is low by 80-90,000.
I am ok with that number too, as there would be an accelerated growth in the interest for a Rivian over time. Since I reserved mine in March 2019, mathematically I think I would be in the sub 10,000 spot if 90,000 is a more accurate number and even better at the 100’s if the 10,000 number is true.

hopefully optimistic:rock:
 

805Badger

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I am sorry. There is no way there are only 10,000 pre-orders. That number is based on a Research Firm's ability to get people to respond to their marketing questionnaire. I am sure that all of this research was conducted based on that forum or Facebook post, I just don't recall where exactly I saw that....Either way, I think we need to give Rivian more credit than just under 10,000. Time will tell, but I would venture to guess that that number is low by 80-90,000.
Don't get me wrong. I am not saying I believe that number, just that if it is that low, there are reasons that I can see why.
 

totem

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I am sorry. There is no way there are only 10,000 pre-orders. That number is based on a Research Firm's ability to get people to respond to their marketing questionnaire. I am sure that all of this research was conducted based on that forum or Facebook post, I just don't recall where exactly I saw that....Either way, I think we need to give Rivian more credit than just under 10,000. Time will tell, but I would venture to guess that that number is low by 80-90,000.
Wait ... What? There is no way a Company would realistically scale their production to take 3+ years to clear out pre-orders before they started producing for the general market. Given the price of the car and no history of the company, it just isn't realistic that they have received close to a fifth of the pre-orders that model 3's did. The research firm is definitely closer, and I'd put good money on it.
 

MEKNEE

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I put down my deposit in late 2018. I am not fully committed because I know very little about the final product; mainly how much control do I have over the accessories that will be offered and will I be able to build a truck that suits me without having to buy "packages" that surround the desirable features with superfluous "fluff". The truck starts at $69K. rebate from federal is $7500 and Oregon is $2500 for a net starting price of $59K. One of my concerns is what is my truck going to cost after upgrading to the upper equipment levels that I would want. Another concern is financing, will there be a lease program?
I imagine after there are more opportunities to actually drive the truck the amount of orders and enthusiasm will increase. I suggest that you get more units out and go to the smaller market areas where the demand may be the greatest. It's my experience that people do not get serious about purchasing until they have driven the vehicle they are interested in. I had a Nissan Leaf for a while and really was pleasantly surprised by the performance and the level of accessories that were included.

So here is what I need to make the final decision on a Rivian Truck:

1. how much is "mine" going to cost?
2. Can I get the truck without all the self driving equipment?
3. Exactly what accessories are going to be available and can I order only what I want?
4. Will there be leasing programs available?
5. When can I actually drive the truck in my area (Oregon)

Once we have passed those tests I'd like to be able to pick colors/interiors
 

electruck

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For some perspective, the Range Rover Sport sold almost 26k units in the US in 2019. Land Rover as a whole sold almost 95k units in the US.
 

jimcgov3

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Wait ... What? There is no way a Company would realistically scale their production to take 3+ years to clear out pre-orders before they started producing for the general market. Given the price of the car and no history of the company, it just isn't realistic that they have received close to a fifth of the pre-orders that model 3's did. The research firm is definitely closer, and I'd put good money on it.
I’d be curious who ask didn’t respond to the questionnaire. I didn’t. I know I’m not the only one. I also know that there are plenty of preorder customers who don’t venture into the forums or who get on the forums but don’t even set up an account, let alone post.

why else would Rivian lower their starting prices??

- Economies of Scale due to preorders??
- 2019 investments??
- CT effect??

My monies on the first one. And my number is based off the preorders combined for both the R1S and R1T.
 

electruck

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Pre-orders don't drive economies of scale, manufacturing at scale does.

In the past Rivian had stated a first year production rate of 20-40k vehicles. These days they seem to be indicating closer to 20k. I think if they had 100k pre-orders they would be doing everything possible to deliver 40k the first year. If I were placing bets, I would put the current number of pre-orders somewhere between 10-20k and with expectations that a significant percentage of those orders will vaporize before it comes time to commit.

Personally, I think the price reduction is a function of being closer to start of production and having increased confidence in material supply costs. CT effect also probably factors in otherwise they might prefer to profit from the higher margins.

Edit: but of course this is all just conjecture
 
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ajdelange

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Wait ... What? There is no way a Company would realistically scale their production to take 3+ years to clear out pre-orders
Musk on the Cybertruck:

When asked by Gene Munster, from Loup Ventures, about how many Cybertrucks Tesla would be able to deliver and its production costs, Musk said this:
“We don't comment on those detailed numbers, except the demand is just far more than we could reasonably make in the space of, I don't know, three or four years, something like that.”
 

timf

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Tesla always claims to have enough pre-orders to sell out production for years, yet in practice there's always a way to jump ahead of the line depending on which options and regions are being produced. Many people wait for less expensive models or end up cancelling, making the pre-order tally meaningless. Also, don't forget that Rivian is currently only open to North American customers, whereas Tesla sells globally. I don't fault Rivian for not wanting to release their number.
 

totem

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Musk on the Cybertruck:
Is this really a fair comparison, though? Their price ranges are completely different. Looking at the Model X pre-order history would be more applicable as well, right?

I'm really not trying to trash Rivian, but I don't think estimating they have $7-9 billion queued up in sales ready to go is an accurate assessment. Do they have more than 10,000 pre-orders? Probably, but that's also before deposit breakage comes into play. I expect big things for this company, but they aren't a Tesla yet.
 

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My WAG is 40-50K preorders, and there will be attrition.

My curiosity is more around the distribution curve of preorders, and where I stand in line.
 

Dray52

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I don’t post much, mainly a surfer but this discussion interests me since the numbers we are discussing is such an unknown. I live in Lubbock Texas where we just got electricity last year. LOL I placed my order in April this year only because I like new toys. I also leased an Audi E-tron the same month. My office headquarters are in Irvine, Ca. and I travel there every month on business. We have a board meeting in which there are 3 Tesla owners, mostly the high dollar ones. Each month we always venture into a discussion on EV’s and not one person was aware of Rivian! Of course everyone knew of the Mustang EV only because of national news. So only 10,000 Rivian preorders wouldn’t surprise me, they did sell the 10,000 pre order Mustang EV in only a few days, one to me. I’m concerned that the Mustang will hit the ground sooner than the Rivian, only because of the lack of updates we get, but hope not.
 
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