CFO Confirms 15K R1T / R1S to be Produced in 2022

[KingTodd]

This is very bad and not just from the enthusiast perspective. I drive by the local dealership row and there’s no new vehicles. It’s a scattering of used cars at Ford, Lexus, Jaguar/Land Rover. Porsche has a few new 911s. That’s it. Still the fleet ages, wears down and needs replacement…

JLR says they get about 5 new ones a week. They’re matching to a customer wait list when they come in. Any new inventory is spoken for until late June.

…very bad. Try to keep your Havana honey in tip top shape!

This is what irks me about people complaining constantly about delays and thinking Rivian needs to get its act together or lose customers.
Where the F do these people think they are going to go and not have a long wait for a car....and its even worse for an EV relative to an ICE. If you want an EV like a Rivian, you will have a long wait...even a much smaller sized Tesla still has a long wait. Some crap ICE vehicles have very long waits. So anyone that writes long whining posts about waiting for a Rivian - please cancel your order, and let us know how fast you get your new vehicle and what it is.
We didn't sign up for this long of a wait, but no one else in the car market did, and the manufacturers didn't sign up to have constant part and labor shortages. This is reality so buckly up and get used to it.

Sponsored

 

[Bee]

The unconstrained demand for all these vehicles can't and won't be met for the foreseeable future. Through 2024, maybe longer? Every battery and battery material forecast I've seen shows supply not meeting or even approaching demand. A couple years ago I would have agreed, there would be cancellations. Today, at the pre Mar 1 price point, if Rivian can meet or be close to the delivery indications they've provided in December and January, I'd predict not many cancellations. So maybe not "never".

My brain fights with itself presenting both sides of this argument and neither side has won.

I cancelled my F150 reservation in favor of my R1T reservation, a bunch of us are going to need to make that decision if they haven't already and plenty of people are going to opt for the extremely capable and different kind of overall product, F150. You can't deny the reservation pool will get widdled down to at least some degree between the price shenanigans and competition.

I'm sure there are plenty of people here who can buy every flavor of EV truck that gets released, cash, regardless of price tag, at least weighed against the average per capita ability to do so, I also expect most of us can't do that and will need to make a decision (if they haven't already) soon.

Then again they're R1Ts and everyone wants them and they're going through their growing pains during a major supply chain disruption.

I don't think either side of my brain is going to win that fight before the dust settles and we learn what happened in the rear view mirror. All I know is perhaps I've made a slight error cancelling my same day F150 reservation in favor of my Jan '22 R1T reservation. Gonna be a long time driving around small hatchbacks waiting!

 

[Gator42]

This is what irks me about people complaining constantly about delays and thinking Rivian needs to get its act together or lose customers

It a good point, the ‘all in the same boat’ quality to the production problems. I would say in many ways it places Rivian in a tougher position than the legacy manufacturers since they aren’t as integrated with their suppliers and haven’t demonstrated the ability to make units in quantity beyond a boutique maker.

Sure, the CFO can switch Rivian into conserve mode (pun intended) but that wrecks the business model and future growth. Auto companies need scale and you won’t get it without big capital outlays. Shelving production for another 24 months makes sure shrinks that big pile of IPO cash…

 

[Gator42]

l I know is perhaps I've made a slight error cancelling my same day F150 reservation in favor of my Jan '22 R1T reservation. Gonna be a long time driving around small hatchbacks waiting!

As recent as the 3/1 price increase I was saying to myself I don’t really ‘need’ a new truck right now. Now I feel like I’m trying to hoard trucks like they’re toilet paper…

 

[Bee]

As recent as the 3/1 price increase I was saying to myself I don’t really ‘need’ a new truck right now. Now I feel like I’m trying to hoard trucks like they’re toilet paper…

My thing is I'm about to get swapped into a new '22 (or more likely '23, long story) Bolt because of the recall nonsense and I wanted to maybe flip that with as close to 0 miles while the market is skyrocketed for one of these trucks. That doesn't look like it's going to happen.

I can get into any GM vehicle... maybe switch the swap to a Colorado Bison while I wait? I just don't want to own ICE anymore and my truck needs are recreational/able to pay for delivery in the mean time.

No wait, toilet paper analogy, right? This is like Covid, you bought that 64 pack of Scott's single ply you gotta get through that shit before you get back to the Charmin Ultrasoft. Blinders on, double hatchback until R1 delivery, discipline, here goes! I really hate Scott's singly ply...

 

[AdamsFan1983]

I think the only thing you can really take from this is that the contractual penalties relevant to not producing the 10k Amazon vans are significant enough that any supply chain scarcity for common parts will come out of the r1 line.

Who knows. Maybe their suppliers come through for them. I certainly hope they do, but I don’t think there’s really much to infer from this otherwise

 

[Florida Rivian Bob]

I know we all suspected, but CFO officially confirmed in a Bloomberg article only 15k R1T/Ss getting built this year and 10k Amazon trucks.

Relevant passage:
"Rivian plans to deliver 10,000 vans to the e-commerce giant this year, McDonough confirmed, while building 25,000 vehicles overall."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...maps-rivian-s-path-to-regain-wall-street-halo

I was most recently given 2 first half 2023 delivery dates (8/20 R1T Max and 3/21 R1S Explore). When will I get my updated delivery estimate of 2024 ?. Good thing I don't neeeeeed a new car yet.

s00n!

 

[RivianNowPlz]

The unconstrained demand for all these vehicles can't and won't be met for the foreseeable future. Through 2024, maybe longer? Every battery and battery material forecast I've seen shows supply not meeting or even approaching demand. A couple years ago I would have agreed, there would be cancellations. Today, at the pre Mar 1 price point, if Rivian can meet or be close to the delivery indications they've provided in December and January, I'd predict not many cancellations. So maybe not "never".

Supply and demand has nothing to do with someone 4 years ago placing a $1000 deposit and at this point finally needing to write a $80k check. Constraints on various parts, batteries et al again has nothing to do with competition in the market place, new products that have reached market, new products that are coming to market and I can go on.

70% again is super generous.. to be honest, I'll be astounded by historical performances of other brands to see greater than 55% conversion from this start up brand from just those initial 50,000 pre-IPO orders.

Tesla with their M3/MY have shown 65% and that was the height of popularity. Even the reservation king of all time the Ford Bronco hasn't seen anywhere close to 100% conversion when to your point about constraints and likely resale everyone knows they could flip a Bronco(I sold my First Edition for $92k after buying it under invoice for $58k).

Supply and demand affects new people who order today. It doesn't affect orders already placed.. Rivian says they'll build 15k R1's this year.. there is your supply. Someone who orders today does not change that number, and someone who ordered in 2019 that maybe lost their job/business in 2020 and who knows what else the pandemic threw is just 1 part of many larger pieces that would lead me to believe of those first 50k preorders.. 30k probs will take delivery.. at best.

 

[nc10]

You can't deny the reservation pool will get widdled down to at least some degree between the price shenanigans and competition.

I think the price shenanigans will end up reducing the number of of orders whittled down. Reinforces that we’re getting a deal almost too good to pass on.

But yeah, I probably wasn’t thinking enough about how many had pre ordered more than 1 EV.

 

[nc10]

Supply and demand affects new people who order today. It doesn't affect orders already placed..

and from previous message.

“With the badwill with price increase + the Lightning/Hummer/Silverado/Ram EVs on the true horizon I think the real number of conversions will be lower than 70%”

Ok. Was thinking you were stating the new options “did” affect what pre orders were completed and was responding. I was thinking the new options are so limited/constrained that they won’t affect pre order holders much. Demand won’t be met for the next few years so it’s not easy for rivian pre order holders to switch without adding a year or two or three to their wait.

But as others have stated, there are rivian preorder holders that are also early f150 pre order holders, so maybe those have a significant impact.

 

[nc10]

I'm confused, this is good news.

Before this, we knew they could produce at max, 15k R1 vehicles. RJ said 25k, nobody said they had to stop at 10k RCVs.

Definitely not "good". Maybe "not bad" since its still 25k total, at least.

10K was the max EDV number I'd had in mind from last year, (for example https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/16/rivian-delays-wont-affect-production-amazon-delivery-vans.html") I had expected the EDV number to ultimately be less than the 10k projections due to supply chain and/or technical problems.

Realistically, I prob shouldn't be disappointed, but I am, and will continue to be every time there is a new report like this and it doesn't show Rivian finding a way to make more than 25K this year.

Both as a stock holder and pre order holder. (I think its fair to have high expectations since Rivian did tell me their stock was worth $78/share)

 

[Craigins]

Definitely not "good". Maybe "not bad" since its still 25k total, at least.

10K was the max EDV number I'd had in mind from last year, (for example https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/16/rivian-delays-wont-affect-production-amazon-delivery-vans.html") I had expected the EDV number to ultimately be less than the 10k projections due to supply chain and/or technical problems.

Realistically, I prob shouldn't be disappointed, but I am, and will continue to be every time there is a new report like this and it doesn't show Rivian finding a way to make more than 25K this year.

Both as a stock holder and pre order holder. (I think its fair to have high expectations since Rivian did tell me their stock was worth $78/share)

Ao the bad news was the 25k vehicles in 2022.

Rivian has a contract for 10k vans to Amazon in 2022. There's no way they are missing their contract numbers to make consumer vehicles. This means that 10k vans is the minimum number of vans for 2022.

The good news is that Rivian isn't diverting anything more than necessary for the van production.

 

[nc10]

Rivian has a contract for 10k vans to Amazon in 2022.

What do we know about this? How different is it from the preorder agreements? If they don't make 10k, what happens? Not disagreeing, just don't know what happens if its 8k etc. When I said I was thinking it would less than 10k, I was expecting (guessing?) it to be less cause it just might not be possible given all the supply chain problems, not because they wanted to make R1's instead.

( I also don't think making 100 less R1's equates directly to make 100 more EDV's etc, but just another guess, maybe the same rate limiting part in both cases. I do predict their ability to meet EDV targets will look a lot like their ability to meet R1 targets, despite contracts, etc.)

 

[Forager]

Ao the bad news was the 25k vehicles in 2022.

Rivian has a contract for 10k vans to Amazon in 2022. There's no way they are missing their contract numbers to make consumer vehicles. This means that 10k vans is the minimum number of vans for 2022.

The good news is that Rivian isn't diverting anything more than necessary for the van production.

I’m not surprised that Rivian hasn’t reduced their van delivery schedule. They need to produce those first 10k on schedule to “unlock” the next orders; if Rivian misses those Targets then Amazon can walk without repercussion. At least now, if Amazon cancels they owe Rivian compensation for R&D and supply costs dedicated to the van.

Rivian stands to gain much more by keeping van production at 10k for 2022, than they do by reducing van output at the expense of producing a few thousand more R1.

It is disappointing, though, that Amazon didn’t allow some modification to their order considering Amazon is a shareholder… the cynical part of me expects an Amazon takeover at some point.

 

[nc10]

Amazon may have negotiated terms that allow them to back out if Rivian fails to meet the quota. Hard to tell without seeing the actual contract.

From what I read in the S1, sure Amazon can pretty much back out at any time, and Rivian has to give EDV supply priority to Amazon. But haven't seen the 2022 10,000 commitment documented anywhere. I completely agree keeping Amazon supplied is critical, just was surprised that they still thought they could deliver 10,000 this year.

Sponsored