Current daily production rate

[RideAlong]

Have they reached the 100 per day threshold yet ?

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[Sully151]

I would guess 5-10.

 

[crashmtb]

I would guess 5-10.

They were doing batches of 15 when @DuckTruck et al visited. Why would production volume have decreased from the pilot phase?

 

[EVTrucking]

They were doing batches of 15 when @DuckTruck et al visited. Why would production volume have decreased from the pilot phase?

Rivian reported 652 as of 12/15/21. 5 day work weeks comes out to 65 working days = 10 per day give or take. 266 of the 652 are undelivered.

Rivian will miss their year end goal of 1200 by 400-500. They reported supply and production issues as causes for the miss.

Rivian will get better but IMO producing and shipping 40-48K by end of 22 is pure fantasy.

 

[Scoiatael]

Rivian reported 652 as of 12/15/21. 5 day work weeks comes out to 65 working days = 10 per day give or take. 266 of the 652 are undelivered.

Rivian will miss their year end goal of 1200 by 400-500. They reported supply and production issues as causes for the miss.

Rivian will get better but IMO producing and shipping 40-48K by end of 22 is pure fantasy.

I'd be surprised if they can deliver 15k vehicles by the end of 22.

 

[EVTrucking]

I'd be surprised if they can deliver 15k vehicles by the end of 22.

I agree!

 

[DuckTruck]

They were doing batches of 15 when @DuckTruck et al visited. Why would production volume have decreased from the pilot phase?

Crash,

As I recall, the batches of 15 at a time were solely to check each step in the process, as they sought improvements / made adjustments along the way. They pointed out that the speed of the production line was so slow (in fact, as slow as it could go), it was moving a little like the second hand on a watch.

It was clearly an early step in getting things right before ramping up. Learning to crawl before trying to run, so to speak. Also, I'm not sure any of those were ever going to be production vehicles.

By the way, Merry Christmas to you and yours. Enjoy!

 

[GaryL]

I agree!

What end of 22 production number do you think is reflected in the $95 stock price?

 

[Zoidz]

My guess - close to 30K out the door in 2022. 'Averaging ~580 a week, ~12 vehicles per hour, ~50 hours a week, ~51 weeks.

 

[Fred6v]

My guess - close to 30K out the door in 2022. 'Averaging ~580 a week, ~12 vehicles per hour, ~50 hours a week, ~51 weeks.

What data is yr guess based on?

 

[Ladiver]

My guess - close to 30K out the door in 2022. 'Averaging ~580 a week, ~12 vehicles per hour, ~50 hours a week, ~51 weeks.

That is super ambitious. I think your numbers are what they will ramp up to. On 12/31/22, the will be capable of 17 cars per hour. Unfortunately, on 1/1/22 their capabilities are probably > 2 cars per hour.

If they deliver 15K, I will be shocked. The only way I see this happening is that they hire more people and partner with Hot Wheels! (Last sentence was sarcasm)

 

[cc84]

My guess - close to 30K out the door in 2022. 'Averaging ~580 a week, ~12 vehicles per hour, ~50 hours a week, ~51 weeks.

Your guess seems to fall in line with my scheduled delivery date.

Being a guess on my behalf and based on absolutely nothing, I would think they're running (2) 8hr. shifts 7 days a week. I remember reading at maximum production they should be able to produce 1 vehicle every 4 minutes. I would guess maybe they could achieve one every 10 minutes, or 6 vehicles per hour, with 112 hrs. per week, for a total of 672 vehicles per week. All nothing but a fun guess.

 

[Diddy123]

They’ve stated on multiple occasions that they’ll be running the line (or already are) 2 shifts per day, 6 days per week. So I think the math should be based on 16 hours per day, 96 hours per week, and ~4800 hours per year, starting relatively soon.

I don’t feel that a vehicle every 15 minutes is too crazy, so I’m assuming production of around 20k this year.

 

[Zoidz]

What data is yr guess based on?

Various statements from Rivian and industry analysts.

40K in the first full year

150k annual capacity goal in Illinois

Tesla produced ~35k model S in their 3rd year of production. I believe that due to tech advances, industry maturation, and JR being a better, calmer, smarter, and more methodical automotive engineer than Musk, Rivian will do in the first full year what took Tesla 3 years to achieve.

 

[EVTrucking]

Various statements from Rivian and industry analysts.

40K in the first full year

150k annual capacity goal in Illinois

Tesla produced ~35k model S in their 3rd year of production. I believe that due to tech advances, industry maturation, and JR being a better, calmer, smarter, and more methodical automotive engineer than Musk, Rivian will do in the first full year what took Tesla 3 years to achieve.

Old 2nd hand information that does not reflect current reality.

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