5,000+ R2 Production Milestone (VIN 5400 Assigned)

[Ps702]

From experience we know most reservations do not convert into orders. Also some will hold off for the standard model. Rivian should sell the 100k units next year without too much trouble.

I'm wondering how they are going to get to 300,000 units a year out of the GA plant?

Hopefully international sales gets them to full factory utilization sooner before R3 rolls out

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[DuoRivian]

I'm wondering how they are going to get to 300,000 units a year out of the GA plant?

Hopefully international sales gets them to full factory utilization sooner before R3 rolls out

Next year is straightforward from a sales perspective. 2028 will be the interesting year as they will have the full 165000 from Normal and potentially start in Georgia therefore having a large volume to sell with competitors like Volvo and BMW fully upto speed (unlike in 2026).

 

[asellus]

Are There supposed to be 200,000 reservations?

I think the only actual confirmed reservation count was the 80-some-thousand on day 1. Everything after that is conjecture.

Even assuming it's somehow only 80k reservations and we see a 10% followthrough, the November/December timeframe for my reservation seems wildly optimistic, given that I reserved in like.. May 2026. The math isn't mathing.

 

[Ps702]

I think the only actual confirmed reservation count was the 80-some-thousand on day 1. Everything after that is conjecture.

Even assuming it's somehow only 80k reservations and we see a 10% followthrough, the November/December timeframe for my reservation seems wildly optimistic, given that I reserved in like.. May 2026. The math isn't mathing.

Same situation with me. Reserved January 2026, with a Nov/Dec.

A factory needs to be at 80% output to break even. It seems R2 won't give them the volume to even come close.
Hopefully there is a lot more brand recognition b6 next year to increase that volume

 

[sparked]

Even assuming it's somehow only 80k reservations and we see a 10% followthrough, the November/December timeframe for my reservation seems wildly optimistic, given that I reserved in like.. May 2026. The math isn't mathing.

They are starting the 2nd shift by the end of September so they will have a lot of production capacity going into 2027 to make everyone happy.

 

[WoodChips]

I maid my reservation July 3rd, with an order date Dec -Feb. No expiring lease and no launch edition.

While I suspect my order will be more Feb than Dec I would think Rivian had a decent idea the percentage of people following through their reservation after they started taking official orders. But only time will tell.

 

[VandalSibs]

I think the only actual confirmed reservation count was the 80-some-thousand on day 1. Everything after that is conjecture.

Even assuming it's somehow only 80k reservations and we see a 10% followthrough, the November/December timeframe for my reservation seems wildly optimistic, given that I reserved in like.. May 2026. The math isn't mathing.

I'm pretty sure there was a mention of 200k reservations about a year after the reveal.

 

[R2 Fan]

I'm pretty sure there was a mention of 200k reservations about a year after the reveal.

That's the number that I was given at a couple of Service Centers.

 

[asellus]

the service center folks saying that to me had always prefaced it with verbiage implying it's rumors, unconfirmed, and not something they truly know. if anyone can furnish a direct, official quote from Rivian about the number of reservations, I'd be super interested in hearing it. given it's a publicly traded company though, it makes sense to keep it hush-hush unless it's some astronomical number (like 80k+ by EOD on announcement in 2024)

 

[blipit]

Are There supposed to be 200,000 reservations?

With most EV debuts and their reservation list, they never convert to real numbers.

I still remember GM claiming they had 170,000 Silverado EV reservations. They have sold a whopping 18,000 three model years later.

 

[Ps702]

With most EV debuts and their reservation list, they never convert to real numbers.

I still remember GM claiming they had 170,000 Silverado EV reservations. They have sold a whopping 18,000 three model years later.

I believe these reservation numbers are smoke and mirrors for the investors. I would just prefer RJ is not doing the same thing

 

[blipit]

I'm wondering how they are going to get to 300,000 units a year out of the GA plant?

I am honestly starting to question whether there will even be demand for that amount of output each year. Rivian will need the $45k R2 variant, but with 275mile range that likely will be another cherry picked EPA result. While Tesla offers Model Y Prem RWD at $46k with 357mile range, that delivers more than that at highway speeds. How many customers are there for an "Adventure" vehicle that is RWD and has little range?

 

[WoodChips]

...How many customers are there for an "Adventure" vehicle that is RWD and has little range?

It's too early to say but how many people buy trucks and never use the beds? How many buy the biggest version and never tow?

Or how many people want a third row and then never use it?

People are funny.

 

[emroch]

Theres also some marketing strategy in making the lowest trim have an attractive price but an annoying trade-off. For "just" $3500 more, you can get the RWD LR and still be under $50k (before add-ons).

I'm sure Rivian will sell enough of the $45k config to make it worth having, but I bet they'll also convert a good chunk of potential buyers up to the $48k version, which is better for the bottom line (presumably).

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