Rivian announces 75 million shares offering

[DuoRivians]

Can you explain where you got 400K in annual sales to break even? Sincerely asking. Where is this number coming from?

In 2025, Rivian delivered 42K cars and they lost $3.6 billion.

Rivian said they aimed to achieve 20% gross profit on cars sold. So, assuming that future sales are mostly R2/R3 and if the arpu on them is $50K, that means gross profit per car is $10K.

$3.6 billion / $10K gross profit per car = 360,000 cars Rivian has to incrementally sell

360K cars + 42K cars = 402K cars. So, roughly 400K

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[evguy]

I

This article seems to be a cautiously optimistic view of the recent stock offering.

https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/rivian-75-million-share-offering-disappoints-investors

Interesting take. If my math is right, then this raise puts cash on hand plus the DOE loan at about $11 B, which should be enough to get through the R3 launch. Hopefully this is the last time Rivian needs to make this type of financing move, but who knows. At current price, the stock is still up 22% over the past 12 months.

 

[savethemanual]

So many things can happen between now and when R3 is ready to launch...both good and bad. I do remember reading several articles and posts a few years ago in how Rivian's days were almost over. Been an interesting ride so far, for sure...Go Rivian!

 

[RivDeWrld]

This article explains the mechanics of the share dilution with specific details of the offering.

https://ng.investing.com/news/stock...vians-12b-share-offering--report-93CH-2591377

 

[jrothman]

In 2025, Rivian delivered 42K cars and they lost $3.6 billion.

Rivian said they aimed to achieve 20% gross profit on cars sold. So, assuming that future sales are mostly R2/R3 and if the arpu on them is $50K, that means gross profit per car is $10K.

$3.6 billion / $10K gross profit per car = 360,000 cars Rivian has to incrementally sell

360K cars + 42K cars = 402K cars. So, roughly 400K

Thanks for running me through that. Are you incorporating other growth areas they're rolling out - like licensing their software stack to other companies and subscription-based services like Autonomy+ and Connect+?

 

[DuoRivians]

Thanks for running me through that. Are you incorporating other growth areas they're rolling out - like licensing their software stack to other companies and subscription-based services like Autonomy+ and Connect+?

More or less yes, because that’s part of the 20% gross profit

 

[evguy]

More or less yes, because that’s part of the 20% gross profit

Here's what the CFO said on an earnings call in August 2022: "I want to reiterate our confidence in our long-term financial targets. We see a clear path to our approximately 25% gross margin target, high-teens [percentage] EBITDA [margin] target and approximately 10% free cash flow [as a percentage of revenue] target."

Not sure if they have dialed back those targets since. Even 20% gross margin across the entire business would be nice. I think Ford is under 10%.

 

[DuoRivians]

Here's what the CFO said on an earnings call in August 2022: "I want to reiterate our confidence in our long-term financial targets. We see a clear path to our approximately 25% gross margin target, high-teens [percentage] EBITDA [margin] target and approximately 10% free cash flow [as a percentage of revenue] target."

Not sure if they have dialed back those targets since. Even 20% gross margin across the entire business would be nice. I think Ford is under 10%.

I just don’t see it. Claire can say what she believes, but it’s ultimately the market that decides and if Rivian can’t compete internationally, I think Rivian’s market cap is significantly limited.

 

[mkg3]

Here's what the CFO said on an earnings call in August 2022: "I want to reiterate our confidence in our long-term financial targets. We see a clear path to our approximately 25% gross margin target, high-teens [percentage] EBITDA [margin] target and approximately 10% free cash flow [as a percentage of revenue] target."

Not sure if they have dialed back those targets since. Even 20% gross margin across the entire business would be nice. I think Ford is under 10%.

YOu might want to go listen to the most recent earrings call from April this year. Your quote from 4 years ago has been overtaken by events. Better yet, the new earnings call happens at the end of this month. Try listening to that.

 

[evguy]

YOu might want to go listen to the most recent earrings call from April this year. Your quote from 4 years ago has been overtaken by events. Better yet, the new earnings call happens at the end of this month. Try listening to that.

Thanks so much for the friendly tip. Are you saying they withdrew the target of 25% gross margin? Or are you just saying that the sh*tshow that was the US EV market over the past four years makes that target no longer realistic in your view? Would love to listen to every single earnings call in full, but sadly, life gets in the way. I'm so grateful for the helpful folks on this forum.

 

[BigSkies]

In 2025, Rivian delivered 42K cars and they lost $3.6 billion.

Rivian said they aimed to achieve 20% gross profit on cars sold. So, assuming that future sales are mostly R2/R3 and if the arpu on them is $50K, that means gross profit per car is $10K.

$3.6 billion / $10K gross profit per car = 360,000 cars Rivian has to incrementally sell

360K cars + 42K cars = 402K cars. So, roughly 400K

I did similar math and came up with ball-park similar numbers. I was closer to 500k, but I was more conservative on margin assumptions.

I do think arpu will be higher than $50k, as that includes the car, fees, accessories, software, etc.

Tesla's 2018 cash-crunch required them getting to a run-rate of roughly 500k/yr, so I think somewhere in the 400k-600k range is the right number based on experience.

There's also a gap depending on if you're talking about GAAP/IFRS net income, operating cash flow or free cash flow. Rivian has sizeable capex, depreciation & stock comp numbers, which can give you very different numbers. Rivian even had positive operating cash flow for a few quarters in 2025.

This is a global sales number, and the world is a lot bigger than the US. Tesla sells north of 650k cars per year in the US and shy of 2M globally. Getting to 400-600k is believable and doable IMO. It just needs the GA factory open to make it happen.

 

[DuoRivians]

I did similar math and came up with ball-park similar numbers. I was closer to 500k, but I was more conservative on margin assumptions.

I do think arpu will be higher than $50k, as that includes the car, fees, accessories, software, etc.

Tesla's 2018 cash-crunch required them getting to a run-rate of roughly 500k/yr, so I think somewhere in the 400k-600k range is the right number based on experience.

There's also a gap depending on if you're talking about GAAP/IFRS net income, operating cash flow or free cash flow. Rivian has sizeable capex, depreciation & stock comp numbers, which can give you very different numbers. Rivian even had positive operating cash flow for a few quarters in 2025.

This is a global sales number, and the world is a lot bigger than the US. Tesla sells north of 650k cars per year in the US and shy of 2M globally. Getting to 400-600k is believable and doable IMO. It just needs the GA factory open to make it happen.

No one internationally is going to buy a Rivian for $50K+. Certainly with only 400V.

Tesla’s main advantage overseas is that it has a factory in China, where it can take advantage of China’s cost structure. They even only sell cars in Canada that are imported from China now, not from the US

 

[harperwc]

Really? It bounced between 11-14 for 18 months. It was a predictive a lucrative cycle.

Why go all in at $14 now?

the mere mention of the possibility of r2 deliveries exceeding expectations has the stock up over 20%. the possibility of that actually happening combined with the expansion of their commercial vehicle development is also bullish the fact that the regular media outlets are talking about r2 and rj is good for shareholders. the fact that this dilution event only took it down to $16 once stabilized is also good. my opinion is rivian is gonna have to do something way worse that the secondary offering to get it back down to $14. my pt is $23 in 18 mo.

 

[Kidentist]

bought at 12ish, happy to unload at 25.......fingers crossed. R2s seem to be getting a lot of positive press, but ONLY SALES MATTER. Q2 2027 ???

 

[SolidTHX1138]

bought at 12ish, happy to unload at 25.......fingers crossed. R2s seem to be getting a lot of positive press, but ONLY SALES MATTER. Q2 2027 ???

I respect your plan, but are you a Trader or Investor? I have not did well as a short term trader, maybe 50% gain, but as an investor, I have done well. I've been buying Rivian since 2022 almost every month, I plan to hold until 2032. I did this with Tesla in 2016 and sold all by end 2025. I 13x on tesla, I hope to see 5x on Rivian by 2030. This in not investment advice, just sharing my plan.

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