Rivian Q2 Deliveries Beats Estimates. Raises Delivery Guidance For Fully Year 2026

[SANZC02]

Investors will want to hear from Rivian about R2 demand. Reservations turning into actual orders. That will be the inflection point. These are positive numbers, we should know more come the Q2 call.

Not sure there is going to much info in the Q2 call, 3 weeks of limited R2 data isn’t enough to see a trend.

The call I’m more interested in will be the Q4 call with 6 months of R2 data behind them. We also should get a good update on the Georgia plant then as there should be decent construction progress if it is coming online in 2028.

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[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Yes, mistakes have been made along the way. What OEM hasn't? But Rivian has consistently shown that it just needs to stick to its plans and ignore the naysayers.

Surprised stock is only up 3% pre-market on this. Isn't this THE inflection point everyone has been waiting years for? Oh well, may be they'll wake up one day.

Objectively, I'm not surprised. Outside of us EV enthusiasts and Rivian owners, EVs are no longer talk of the street. It's [groan] AI. I don't expect major and sustained upswings until well after GA plant is running and Rivians become common sight.

 

[TexasBob]

This is very encouraging and not to be a wet blanket, but:
A) the stock is up 8% or $2b mkt cap which is pretty darn positive for an announcement that says current year revenue will rise by around $200m and GM increase of less than $20m so that is a pretty darn good bump especially given that...
B) Rivian is worth about 50% of what Ford is worth so there is already a very significant upside built in here. Going from unprofitable 60k units a year to a profitable 2.2 million vehicles a year (1/2 of Ford) is a reasonably tough hill to climb and the stock price already assumes that is totally going to happen (or an economic equivalent).

 

[captainjp]

Goalposts will move further back by the haters. Makes no difference.

 

[renderpaz]

For those talking about inflection point, this isn't it. It's a great sign of confidence, but the inflection point will be when investors believe the cash bonfire is over.

 

[Calilifer]

For those talking about inflection point, this isn't it. It's a great sign of confidence, but the inflection point will be when investors believe the cash bonfire is over.

Agreed. While the delivery and bump in orders helps, the issue is (and always will be) electric infrastructure. If that doesn't exist across the country then eventually EV makers will hit a limit on sales. Without continued and sustained electric infrastructure growth then I don't see the stock making a huge jump.

 

[skyguyscott]

It's encouraging to see the sales bump, especially this soon after the end of the subsidy. The stock is worth what the investors are willing to pay for it, and that isn't necessarily tied to the performance of the company.

But Rivian's success, like most any other company, isn't dependent upon investors, but on customers. The issue for Rivian now is increasing sales to a point where EVs grow beyond being a niche product, and that's a tall order no one company, not even Tesla, can do by itself.

EV sales globally are way, way up everywhere but in the USA, for reasons you know. I would love to see Rivian grow fast enough to export, but I don't see that happening for years if not a decade hence.

 

[SolidTHX1138]

Goalposts will move further back by the haters. Makes no difference.

Reminds me of when the Tesla M3 first came out, so many naysayers and FUD around Tesla, but Rivian does not have it as bad.

 

[SANZC02]

Reminds me of when the Tesla M3 first came out, so many naysayers and FUD around Tesla, but Rivian does not have it as bad.

I would argue that Rivian has had many more head winds than Tesla, just looking at the M3 release in 2018 and R2 release in 2026.

As an early leader Tesla had to convert people to EVs away from ICE but had very little competition, government rebates, 2018 lower average interest rates around 5% and a pretty good economy.

Rivian has much more competition, no government rebates, higher interest rates 2026 average around 7% and a struggling economy for middle class down.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

I would argue that Rivian has had many more head winds than Tesla, just looking at the M3 release in 2018 and R2 release in 2026.

As an early leader Tesla had to convert people to EVs away from ICE but had very little competition, government rebates, 2018 lower average interest rates around 5% and a pretty good economy.

Rivian has much more competition, no government rebates, higher interest rates 2026 average around 7% and a struggling economy for middle class down.

Tesla also received lots of subsidies and was able to offset a lot of losses with sale of carbon credits. Rivian benefited from that too but not for as long. It also was very unlucky in launching production amidst COVID and resulting global crisis in production and logistics (including shortage in basic microchips). Far too often people base criticisms on false equivalences. These narratives just can't be taken seriously.

 

[SolidTHX1138]

I would argue that Rivian has had many more head winds than Tesla, just looking at the M3 release in 2018 and R2 release in 2026.

As an early leader Tesla had to convert people to EVs away from ICE but had very little competition, government rebates, 2018 lower average interest rates around 5% and a pretty good economy.

Rivian has much more competition, no government rebates, higher interest rates 2026 average around 7% and a struggling economy for middle class down.

I agree, Tesla had first mover advantage to be successful, but I was referring from an investment point of view. There were a lot of investment naysays and one of the most heavily shorted stock. I started investing in tesla in 2016 and I remember the FUD around Testa for every car they brought out until MY in 2020, the FUD just died after that. Tesla almost double the number cars sold each year for almost 3 years.

 

[SANZC02]

I agree, Tesla had first mover advantage to be successful, but I was referring from an investment point of view. There were a lot of investment naysays and one of the most heavily shorted stock. I started investing in tesla in 2016 and I remember the FUD around Testa for every car they brought out until MY in 2020, the FUD just died after that. Tesla almost double the number cars sold each year for almost 3 years.

You are riskier than I am. I wanted to
Invest in Tesla after I bought my Model S in 2016 but the P/E was so out of wack I just could not make myself pull the trigger.

I still consider Tesla stock a meme stock, even today the P/E is 354. Sure I left a lot of money on the table not making the purchase back then but my risk aversion over all has done well for me so I have no regrets.

 

[evguy]

Agreed. While the delivery and bump in orders helps, the issue is (and always will be) electric infrastructure. If that doesn't exist across the country then eventually EV makers will hit a limit on sales. Without continued and sustained electric infrastructure growth then I don't see the stock making a huge jump.

Infrastructure is growing at a nice clip now. I think the (first) inflection point will be when Rivian reaches positive gross margin on the automotive business (excluding software and services). And that all depends on how fast they can ramp R2 production.

 

[baggachipz]

You are riskier than I am. I wanted to
Invest in Tesla after I bought my Model S in 2016 but the P/E was so out of wack I just could not make myself pull the trigger.

I still consider Tesla stock a meme stock, even today the P/E is 354. Sure I left a lot of money on the table not making the purchase back then but my risk aversion over all has done well for me so I have no regrets.

Tesla is 100% a meme stock nowadays. When I went to reserve my Model3 sight-unseen on day 0 and saw a line around the building, I immediately ran home and bought a bunch of shares. It was dead for a couple years; up and down, some volatility, but overall somewhat flat. And then, once the production ramp bore out and people saw that they were successfully selling in volume... kaboom! Now I might be able to retire one day. I don't touch TSLA with a 100-foot pole now.

The same thing seems to be playing out in real time with Rivian. I'm not an advisor or anything, but I have been buying a lot of RIVN between 11 and 15. I firmly believe that once they show a successful production ramp and strong sales numbers, the stock will pop. Not like Tesla did, but I think I'll make a nice multiple on my investment. I'd expect that to happen at q3 results or q4 realistically. I get the same feeling about this that Tesla gave me back in the day. Will I be right twice? I don't know, but I sure hope so!

 

[Zathras]

For those talking about inflection point, this isn't it. It's a great sign of confidence, but the inflection point will be when investors believe the cash bonfire is over.

As opposed to Aptera? (I live six houses down from the CEO). They have $75 million in cash, are burning through $10 million a month, and shipping starts in December.

And people think RIvian needs to worry?

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