Why stock getting hammered last few days?

[mkhuffman]

The issue is pretty straightforward. RJ said in Park City that Rivian won’t be gross-margin profitable until after the Georgia plant comes online, and that 160K+ units out of Normal isn’t enough to get them there. That’s the exact opposite of their earlier guidance claiming profitability in 2027. If you take his new comments at face value, that pushes any realistic profitability target out to around 2029.

Article: Rivian is also hoping to achieve its main goal with the R2: profitability. The EV maker lost $3.6 billion last year, while only delivering 42,247 vehicles.

After promising investors it would be profitable on an adjusted basis by 2027, Rivian earlier this year withdrew that target without disclosing a new time frame to achieve the milestone. That comes as its automotive segment lost about $6,000 per vehicle it delivered during the first quarter of this year.

Scaringe reconfirmed to CNBC that Rivian now expects to accomplish the target once a multibillion-dollar plant in Georgia ramps up. It's slated to begin production in late 2028 and could reach its full capacity by the end of this decade.

Scaringe said Rivian will reach profitability on a per-unit production basis with the R2 this year. But he said the company needs more scale than the 160,000 units already planned for the vehicle at its current plant in Normal, Illinois, to achieve gross margin profitability.

"Georgia brings the volume to generate the gross margin for the vehicle sales that covers everything," Scaringe said. "The good news is we start to really reduce our burn rate. That's the beauty of volume, and these vehicles all being cash flow positive at a vehicle level."


Article

Personally, I think if the R2 can generate cash, it is extremely positive. If it generates 20% margin, which I heard someone say on one of the R2 videos released today, I am very optimistic. Yes, they need to sell a crap load, but the road to profitability is viable.

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[Mark_AZR1T]

Personally, I think if the R2 can generate cash, it is extremely positive. If it generates 20% margin, which I heard someone say on one of the R2 videos released today, I am very optimistic. Yes, they need to sell a crap load, but the road to profitability is viable.

Agreed, the R2 itself looks like it can hit gross profit pretty quickly. But per RJ’s own comments, Rivian as a company won’t reach gross profitability until Georgia is up and running at real volume, which puts that timeline somewhere around 2029 (best case). If what RJ says is true, then they will have to dilute the shares again...as they won't have enough cash on hand.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

I would like to see actual proof where anyone at Rivian said R2 would get the company to positive territory before 2028. As I recall, they only said it is the model line that would get them there. They never said when. It sure looks like personal opinion is being misrepresented as Rivian’s official statement.

Edit...

Additionally, what is actually said is R2 will allow them to net per unit profit by Q4. They are not saying or have ever said they will be net positive, company-wide, in 2026. RJ's own-days old words: https://www.thedrive.com/news/r2-pr...variants-rivians-ceo-just-gave-us-the-roadmap

Retell what you actually hear. Not what you think you hear or prefer to hear.

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